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Journal Articles

Development of importance measures reflecting the risk triplet in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; The Concept and measures of risk importance

Narukawa, Takafumi*; Takata, Takashi*; Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Shibamoto, Yasuteru; Maruyama, Yu; Takada, Tsuyoshi

Journal of Nuclear Engineering (Internet), 6(4), p.49_1 - 49_14, 2025/12

JAEA Reports

Improvement of the RuO$$_{4}$$ vapor-liquid transfer model in the chemical behavior analysis code SCHERN for accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of reprocessed high level liquid waste

Yoshida, Kazuo; Hiyama, Mina*; Tamaki, Hitoshi

JAEA-Research 2025-011, 25 Pages, 2025/11

JAEA-Research-2025-011.pdf:2.15MB

An accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of high-level radioactive liquid waste (HLLW) is postulated as one of the severe accidents caused by the loss of cooling function at a fuel reprocessing plant. In this case, volatile radioactive materials, such as ruthenium (RuO$$_{4}$$) are released from the tanks with water and nitric-acid mixed vapor into the atmosphere. Accurate quantitative estimation of released Ru is one of the important issues for risk assessment of those facilities. RuO$$_{4}$$ is expected to be absorbed chemically into water dissolving nitrous acid (HNO$$_{2}$$). This behavior has been experimentally confirmed and plays an important role in the migration of Ru in the facility. A new model has been proposed as a chemical and physical absorption model based on the experimental results of the migration of RuO$$_{4}$$ into nitric acid-water mixtures. In this study, to improve the analytical performance of SCHERN, these new analytical models have been incorporated and attempted to analyze the behavior of RuO$$_{4}$$ in each phase. As a result, it has been observed a tendency that HNO$$_{2}$$ in the liquid phase increases rapidly during the late boiling phase, when RuO$$_{4}$$ release increases rapidly, and confirmed that this HNO$$_{2}$$ concentration change significantly affects the subsequent migration behavior of RuO$$_{4}$$. These results indicate that it is essential to improve the analytical accuracy of the chemical behavior of HNO$$_{2}$$ in each phase.

JAEA Reports

Verification of analytical model of MELCOR code for accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of reprocessed high level liquid waste

Yoshida, Kazuo; Hiyama, Mina*; Tamaki, Hitoshi

JAEA-Research 2025-003, 24 Pages, 2025/06

JAEA-Research-2025-003.pdf:2.06MB

An accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of high-level radioactive liquid waste (HLLW) is postulated as one of the severe accidents caused by the loss of cooling function at a fuel reprocessing plant. In this case, volatile radioactive materials, such as ruthenium (RuO$$_{4}$$) are released from the tanks with water and nitric-acid mixed vapor into the atmosphere. Accurate quantitative estimation of released Ru is one of the important issues for risk assessment of those facilities. RuO$$_{4}$$ is expected to be absorbed chemically into water dissolving nitrous acid. Condensation of mixed vapor plays an important role for Ru transporting behavior in the facility building. The thermal-hydraulic behavior in the facility building is simulated with MELCOR code. The latent heat, which is a governing factor for vapor condensing behavior, has almost same value for nitric acid and water at the temperature range under 120 centigrade. Considering this thermal characteristic, it is assumed that the amount of nitric acid is substituted with mole-equivalent water in MELCOR simulation. Compensating modeling induced deviation by this assumption have been assembled with control function features of MELCOR. The comparison results have been described conducted between original simulation and modified simulation with compensating model in this report. It has been revealed that the total amount of pool water in the facility was as same as both simulations.

Journal Articles

Development of importance measures reflecting the risk triplet in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; A Case study using MELCOR and RAPID

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Shibamoto, Yasuteru; Maruyama, Yu; Takada, Tsuyoshi; Narukawa, Takafumi*; Takata, Takashi*

Journal of Nuclear Engineering (Internet), 6(3), p.21_1 - 21_18, 2025/06

Journal Articles

Cutting edge of application of AI technology to PRA, 3; Advancement of approaches to dynamic PRA and uncertainty quantification using machine learning

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Shibamoto, Yasuteru; Maruyama, Yu

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO$$Sigma$$, 66(11), p.565 - 569, 2024/11

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Development of risk importance measures for dynamic PRA based on risk triplet, 1; The Concept and measures of risk importance

Narukawa, Takafumi*; Takata, Takashi*; Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Shibamoto, Yasuteru; Maruyama, Yu; Takada, Tsuyoshi

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management & Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management (PSAM17 & ASRAM2024) (Internet), 9 Pages, 2024/10

Journal Articles

Development of risk importance measures for dynamic PRA based on risk triplet, 2; Trial measurement of risk importance through dynamic level 2 PRA with RAPID

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Shibamoto, Yasuteru; Maruyama, Yu; Takada, Tsuyoshi; Narukawa, Takafumi*; Takata, Takashi*

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management & Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management (PSAM17 & ASRAM2024) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2024/10

JAEA Reports

Trial analysis of chemical behavior in high-level radioactive liquid waste tank at accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of reprocessing plant

Yoshida, Kazuo; Hiyama, Mina*; Tamaki, Hitoshi

JAEA-Research 2024-007, 24 Pages, 2024/08

JAEA-Research-2024-007.pdf:2.1MB

An accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of high-level radioactive liquid waste (HLLW) is postulated as one of the severe accidents caused by the loss of cooling function at a fuel reprocessing plant. In this case, volatile radioactive materials, such as ruthenium (Ru) are released from the tanks with water and nitric-acid mixed vapor into the atmosphere. Accurate quantitative estimation of released Ru is one of the important issues for risk assessment of those facilities. It has been observed experimentally that volatility of RuO$$_{4}$$ is suppressed by HNO$$_{2}$$ generated by HNO$$_{3}$$ radiolysis. The analysis of chemical reactions of NO$$_{x}$$ including HNO$$_{3}$$ and HNO$$_{2}$$ in the waste tank is essential to simulate of these phenomena. To resolve this issue, an analytical approach has been attempted to couple dynamically two computer codes SHAWED and SCHERN. The simulation of boiling behavior in the tank is conducted with SHAWED. SCHERN simulates chemical behaviors of HNO$$_{3}$$, HNO$$_{2}$$ and NO$$_{x}$$ in the tank. A programmatic coupling algorithm and a trial simulation of the accident are presented in this report.

Journal Articles

Simulation-based dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of an internal flooding-initiated accident in nuclear power plant using THALES2 and RAPID

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 237(5), p.947 - 957, 2023/10

 Times Cited Count:5 Percentile:47.54(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. However, the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components are damaged is difficult to estimate if the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA based on event trees and fault trees. A methodology coupling thermal-hydraulic analysis with external event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID) is therefore proposed to overcome this limitation. A flood propagation model based on Bernoulli's theorem was applied to represent internal flooding in the turbine building of the pressurized water reactor. Uncertainties were also taken into account, including the flow rate of the floodwater source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. The simulated recovery actions included the operator isolating the floodwater source and using a drainage pump; these actions were modeled using several simplifications. Overall, the results indicate that combining isolation and drainage can reduce the conditional core damage probability upon the occurrence of flooding by approximately 90%.

JAEA Reports

Development of analytical approach of source term for accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of reprocessed high level liquid waste

Yoshida, Kazuo; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Hiyama, Mina*

JAEA-Research 2023-001, 26 Pages, 2023/05

JAEA-Research-2023-001.pdf:1.61MB

An accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of high-level radioactive liquid waste (HLLW) is postulated as one of the severe accidents caused by the loss of cooling function at a fuel reprocessing plant. In this case, volatile radioactive materials, such as ruthenium (Ru) are released from the tanks with water and nitric-acid mixed vapor into the atmosphere. Accurate quantitative estimation of released Ru is one of the important issues for risk assessment of those facilities. To resolve this issue, an analytical approach has been developed using computer simulation programs to assess the radioactive source term from those facilities. The proposed approach consists analyses with three computer programs. At first, the simulation of boiling behavior in the HLLW tank is conducted with SHAWED code. Next step, the thermal-hydraulic behavior in the facility building is simulated with MELCOR code based on the results at the first step simulation such as flowed out mixed steam flow rate, temperature and volatilized Ru from the tank. The final analysis step is carried out for estimating amount of released radioactive materials with SCHERN computer code which simulates chemical behaviors of nitric acid, nitrogen oxide and Ru based on the condition also simulated MELCOR. Series of sample simulations of the accident at a hypothetical typical facility are presented with the data transfer between those codes in this report.

JAEA Reports

Development of simulation program; SHAWED for analysis of accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of reprocessed high level liquid waste in tank

Yoshida, Kazuo; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Hiyama, Mina*

JAEA-Research 2022-011, 37 Pages, 2022/12

JAEA-Research-2022-011.pdf:2.88MB

An accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of high level liquid waste (HLLW) is postulated as one of the severe accidents at a fuel reprocessing plant. Two major mechanisms are expected for fission products (FPs) transfer from liquid to vapor phase. One is non-volatiles FPs transfer in the form of mists to the vapor phase in the tank, the other is volatilization of such as Ruthenium. These FPs transferred to the vapor phase in the tank could be released with water and nitric-acid mixed steam and NO$$_{2}$$ gas flow to the environment. NO$$_{2}$$ is generated from denitration of nitrate fission products during dry out phase. These phenomena occurred in this accident originate from the liquid waste boiling in the tank. It is essential for the risk assessment of this accident to simulate thermo-hydraulic and chemical behaviors in the waste tank quantitatively with a versatile computer program. The SHAWED ($$underline{rm S}$$imulation of $$underline{rm H}$$igh-level radio$$underline{rm A}$$ctive $$underline{rm W}$$aste $$underline{rm E}$$vaporation and $$underline{rm D}$$ryness) has been developed to realize these requirements. In this report, detailed description of major analytical models is explained based on the features of this accident, and some simulation examples are also described for the use in an actual risk assessment.

Journal Articles

Uncertainty analysis of dynamic PRA using nested Monte Carlo simulations and multi-fidelity models

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Takahara, Shogo; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM16) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2022/09

Journal Articles

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants using multi-fidelity simulations

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 223, p.108503_1 - 108503_12, 2022/07

AA2021-0588.pdf:1.29MB

 Times Cited Count:24 Percentile:83.12(Engineering, Industrial)

JAEA Reports

Analysis of risk reduction effect of supposed steam condenser implementation as accident measure for accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of reprocessed high level liquid waste

Yoshida, Kazuo; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Hiyama, Mina*

JAEA-Research 2021-013, 20 Pages, 2022/01

JAEA-Research-2021-013.pdf:2.35MB

An accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of high level liquid waste (HLLW) is postulated as one of the severe accidents caused by the loss of cooling function at a fuel reprocessing plant. In this case, volatile radioactive materials, such as ruthenium (Ru) are released from the tanks with water and nitric-acid mixed vapor into atmosphere. An idea has been proposed to implement a steam condenser as an accident countermeasure. This measure is expected to prevent nitric acid steam diffusing in facility building and to increase gaseous Ru trapping ratio into condensed water. A simulation study has been carried out with a hypothetical typical facility building to analyze the efficiency of steam condenser. In this study, SCHERN computer code simulates chemical behaviors of Ru in nitrogen oxide, nitric acid and water mixed vapor based on the conditions obtained from simulation with thermal-hydraulic computer code MELCOR. The effectiveness of steam condenser has been analyzed quantitively in preventing mixed vapor diffusion and gaseous Ru trapping effect. Some issues to be solved in analytical model has been also clarified in this study.

JAEA Reports

Analysis of behavior of Ru with nitrogen oxide chemical behavior in accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of reprocessed high level liquid waste

Yoshida, Kazuo; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Hiyama, Mina*

JAEA-Research 2021-005, 25 Pages, 2021/08

JAEA-Research-2021-005.pdf:2.91MB

An accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of high level liquid waste (HLLW) is postulated as one of the severe accidents caused by the loss of cooling function at a fuel reprocessing plant. In this case, volatile radioactive materials, such as ruthenium (Ru) are released from the tanks with water and nitric-acid mixed vapor into atmosphere. Accurate quantitative estimation of released Ru is one of the important issues for risk assessment of those facilities. To resolve this issue, an empirical correlation equation of Ru mass transfer coefficient across the vapor-liquid surface, which can be useful for quantitative simulation of Ru mitigating behavior, has been obtained from data analyses of small-scale experiments conducted to clarify gaseous Ru migrating behavior under steam-condensing condition. A simulation study has been also carried out with a hypothetical typical facility building successfully to demonstrate the feasibility of quantitative estimation of amount of Ru migrating in the facility using the obtained correlation equation implemented in SCHERN computer code which simulates chemical behaviors of nitrogen oxide based on the condition also simulated thermal-hydraulic computer code.

JAEA Reports

SCHERN-V2: Technical guide of computer program for chemical behavior in accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of reprocessed high level liquid waste in Fuel Reprocessing Facilities

Yoshida, Kazuo; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Hiyama, Mina*

JAEA-Data/Code 2021-008, 35 Pages, 2021/08

JAEA-Data-Code-2021-008.pdf:3.68MB

An accident of evaporation to dryness by boiling of high level liquid waste (HLLW) is postulated as one of the severe accidents caused by the loss of cooling function at a fuel reprocessing plant. In this case, volatile radioactive materials, such as ruthenium (Ru) are released from the tanks with water and nitric-acid mixed vapor into atmosphere. In addition to this, nitrogen oxides (NO$$_{rm x}$$) are also released formed by the thermal decomposition of metal nitrates of fission products (FP) in HLLW. It has been observed experimentally that NOx affects to the migration behavior of Ru at the anticipated atmosphere condition in cells and/or compartments of the facility building. Chemical reactions of NO$$_{rm x}$$ with water and nitric acid are also recognized as the complex phenomena to undergo simultaneously in the vapor and liquid phases. The analysis program, SCHERN has been under developed to simulate chemical behavior including Ru coupled with the thermo-hydraulic condition in the flow paths in the facility building. This technical guide for SCHERN-V2 presents the overview of covered accident, analytical models including newly developed models, differential equations for numerical solution, and user instructions.

Journal Articles

Overview and outcomes of the OECD/NEA benchmark study of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPS (BSAF), Phase 2; Results of severe accident analyses for unit 3

Lind, T.*; Pellegrini, M.*; Herranz, L. E.*; Sonnenkalb, M.*; Nishi, Yoshihisa*; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Cousin, F.*; Fernandez Moguel, L.*; Andrews, N.*; Sevon, T.*

Nuclear Engineering and Design, 376, p.111138_1 - 111138_12, 2021/05

 Times Cited Count:20 Percentile:90.35(Nuclear Science & Technology)

This is the third part of the three part paper describing the accidents at the FDNPS as analyzed in the Phase 2 of the OECD/NEA project "Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant" (BSAF). In this paper, we describe the accident progression in unit 3. In the BSAF project, eight organizations from five countries analyzed severe accident scenarios for Unit 3 at the Fukushima Daiichi site using different severe accident codes. The present paper for Unit 3 describes the findings of the comparison of the participants' results against each other and against plant data, the evaluation of the accident progression and the final status inside the reactors. Special focus is on the status of the reactor pressure vessel, melt release and fission product release and transport. Unit 3 specific aspects, e.g., the complicated accident progression following repeated containment venting actuations and attempts at coolant injection at the time of the major core degradation, are highlighted and points of consensus as well as remaining uncertainties and data needs will be summarized. FP transport is analyzed, and the calculation results are compared with dose rate measurements in the containment. The release of I-131 and Cs-137 to the environment is compared with analysis conducted by using WSPEEDI code.

Journal Articles

Overview and outcomes of the OECD/NEA benchmark study of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPS (BSAF) Phase 2; Results of severe accident analyses for Unit 1

Herranz, L. E.*; Pellegrini, M.*; Lind, T.*; Sonnenkalb, M.*; Godin-Jacqmin, L.*; L$'o$pez, C.*; Dolganov, K.*; Cousin, F.*; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Kim, T. W.*; et al.

Nuclear Engineering and Design, 369, p.110849_1 - 110849_7, 2020/12

 Times Cited Count:27 Percentile:93.08(Nuclear Science & Technology)

Phase 2 of the OECD/NEA Project "Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (BSAF)" was established in mid-2015. The objectives have been similar to Phase 1 of the project but with an extended analysis period of 3 weeks, a major focus on FP behaviour and releases to the environment and the comparison to various data and results of backwards calculations of the source term. Nine organizations of six countries submitted results of their calculated severe accident scenarios for Unit 1 at the 1F site using different severe accident codes. This paper describes the findings of the comparison of the participants results for Unit1 against each other and against plant data, the evaluation of the accident progression and the final status inside the reactors. Special focus is on RPV status, melt release and FP behaviour and release. Unit specific aspects will be highlighted and points of consensus as well as remaining uncertainties and data needs will be summarised.

Journal Articles

Overview and outcomes of the OECD/NEA benchmark study of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPS (BSAF), Phase 2; Results of severe accident analyses for Unit 2

Sonnenkalb, M.*; Pellegrini, M.*; Herranz, L. E.*; Lind, T.*; Morreale, A. C.*; Kanda, Kenichi*; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Kim, S. I.*; Cousin, F.*; Fernandez Moguel, L.*; et al.

Nuclear Engineering and Design, 369, p.110840_1 - 110840_10, 2020/12

 Times Cited Count:30 Percentile:94.37(Nuclear Science & Technology)

This is the second paper in a series of 3 in which results of severe accident analyses for Unit 2 of Fukushima Daiichi are presented, gained in Phase 2 of the OECD/NEA project "Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (BSAF)". Nine organizations of six countries submitted results of their calculated severe accident scenarios for Unit 2 of Fukushima Daiichi using different severe accident codes. The present paper describes the findings of the comparison of the participants' results for Unit 2 against each other and against plant data, the evaluation of the accident progression and the final status inside the reactors. Special focus is on reactor pressure vessel status, melt release and fission product behavior and release. Unit 2 specific aspects will be highlighted and points of consensus as well as remaining uncertainties and data needs will be summarized.

Journal Articles

Dynamic PRA of flooding-initiated accident scenarios using THALES2-RAPID

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2279 - 2286, 2020/11

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is one of the methods used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. When the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA, a particular limitation is the difficulty in considering the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components fail. To overcome this limitation, we coupled thermal-hydraulic and external-event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID). Internal flooding was chosen as the representative external event, and a pressurized water reactor plant model was used. Equations based on Bernoulli's theorem were applied to flooding propagation in the turbine building. In the analysis, uncertainties were taken into account, including the flow rate of the flood water source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. In terms of recovery action, isolation of the flood water source by the operator and drainage using a pump were modeled based on several assumptions. The results indicate that the isolation action became more effective when combined with drainage.

89 (Records 1-20 displayed on this page)