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Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 237(5), p.947 - 957, 2023/10
Times Cited Count：4 Percentile：69.72(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. However, the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components are damaged is difficult to estimate if the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA based on event trees and fault trees. A methodology coupling thermal-hydraulic analysis with external event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID) is therefore proposed to overcome this limitation. A flood propagation model based on Bernoulli's theorem was applied to represent internal flooding in the turbine building of the pressurized water reactor. Uncertainties were also taken into account, including the flow rate of the floodwater source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. The simulated recovery actions included the operator isolating the floodwater source and using a drainage pump; these actions were modeled using several simplifications. Overall, the results indicate that combining isolation and drainage can reduce the conditional core damage probability upon the occurrence of flooding by approximately 90%.
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken
Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 10(4), p.23-00051_1 - 23-00051_17, 2023/08
The significance of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants against external events was re-recognized after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Regarding the seismic PRA, handling correlated failures of systems, components, and structures (SSCs) is very important because this type of failure negatively affects the redundancy of accident mitigation systems. The Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute initially developed a fault tree quantification methodology named the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM) to handle SSCs' correlated failures in detail and realistically. This methodology allows quantifying the top event occurrence probability by considering correlated uncertainties related to seismic responses and capacities with Monte Carlo sampling. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. However, improving its computational efficiency would allow risk analysts to perform several analyses. Therefore, we applied quasi-Monte Carlo and importance sampling to the DQFM calculation of simplified seismic PRA and examined their effects. Specifically, the conditional core damage probability of a hypothetical pressurized water reactor was analyzed with some assumptions. Applying the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling accelerates the convergence of results at intermediate and high ground motion levels by an order of magnitude over Monte Carlo sampling. The application of importance sampling allows us to obtain a statistically significant result at a low ground motion level, which cannot be obtained through Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling. These results indicate that these applications provide a notable acceleration of computation and raise the potential for the practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi*; Ishikawa, Jun
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 11 Pages, 2023/00
Times Cited Count：0 Percentile：0.01(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)Kubo, Kotaro; Fujiwara, Keita*; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken*
Proceedings of 29th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 29) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2022/08
After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, the importance of conducting probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of external events, especially seismic activities and tsunamis, was recognized. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing a computational methodology for seismic PRA, called the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM). When appropriate correlation matrices are available for seismic responses and capacities of components, the DQFM makes it possible to consider the effect of correlated failures of components connected through AND and/or OR gates in fault trees, which is practically difficult when methods using analytical solutions or multidimensional numerical integrations are used to obtain minimal cut set probabilities. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. Nevertheless, a reduction of the computational time of DQFM would allow the large number of analyses required in PRAs conducted by regulators and/or operators. We; therefore, performed scoping calculations using three different approaches, namely quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing, to improve calculation efficiency. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing were applied when calculating the conditional core damage probability of a simplified PRA model of a pressurized water reactor, using the DQFM method. The results indicated that the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling works well at assumed medium and high ground motion levels, importance sampling is suitable for assumed low ground motion level, and that parallel computing enables practical uncertainty and importance analysis. The combined implementation of these improvements in a PRA code is expected to provide a significant acceleration of computation and offers the prospect of practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.
Tang, P.*; Kita, Kazuyuki*; Igarashi, Yasuhito*; Satou, Yukihiko; Hatanaka, Kotaro*; Adachi, Koji*; Kinase, Takeshi*; Ninomiya, Kazuhiko*; Shinohara, Atsushi*
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (Internet), 9(1), p.17_1 - 17_15, 2022/03
Times Cited Count：5 Percentile：69.58(Geosciences, Multidisciplinary)
spectrometry of terrestrial gamma rays using portable germanium detectors in area of 80 km radius around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power PlantMikami, Satoshi; Tanaka, Hiroyuki*; Okuda, Naotoshi*; Sakamoto, Ryuichi*; Ochi, Kotaro; Uno, Kiichiro*; Matsuda, Norihiro; Saito, Kimiaki
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai Wabun Rombunshi, 20(4), p.159 - 178, 2021/12
In order to know the background radiation level where the area affected by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in 2011, terrestrial gamma rays had been measured by using portable germanium detectors repeatedly from 2013 through 2019, at 370 locations within 80 km radius area centered on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Radioactive concentrations of Uranium 238, Thorium 232, Potassium 40 and kerma rates in air due to terrestrial gamma rays were obtained at those locations based on the method of ICRU report 53. Averaged concentrations of 
U, 
Th and 
K were 18.8, 22.7, 428 Bq/kg, respectively, and kerma rate in air over the area was found to be 0.0402 
Gy/h. The obtained kerma rates in air were compared to those reported in literatures. It was confirmed that the data were correlated with each other, and were agreed within the range of their uncertainty. This is because the kerma rate in air due to terrestrial gamma rays is depend on geology. The similar trend to previous findings was observed that the kerma rate in air at locations geologically classified as Mesozoic era, Granite and Rhyolite were statistically significantly higher than the others.
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 13 Pages, 2021/10
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is extensively used, e.g., in periodical safety review and the reactor oversight process, in nuclear regulation systems to improve the safety of nuclear power plants; however, one limitation of classical PRA is the handling of temporal information such as system failure and core damage timings. To resolve this limitation, the dynamic PRA method has been developed and applied for multiple safety issues; however, its improvement is accompanied by considerable computational costs. In this study, we applied the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to dynamic PRA with the expectation of reduction in computational cost. In particular, to estimate core damage timing, a PCE-based surrogate model was developed. Then, the surrogate model was applied to dynamic PRA to calculate the conditional core damage probability and core damage timing. Consequently, applying the PCE might efficiently perform these analyses without considerable reduction in accuracy.
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi
Proceedings of 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021) (Internet), p.810 - 817, 2021/09
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method of effectively evaluating risks in nuclear power plants and is used in various agencies. Dynamic PRA is attracting considerable attention, as it enables realistic assessment by reducing the assumptions and engineering judgments related to time-dependent failure probability and/or human action reliability. However, it is difficult to remove all assumptions and engineering judgments. Therefore, their effects on assessment results should be understood. This study focuses on the "risk dilution effect," which arises from assumptions about uncertainty. Results showed that this effect causes a difference of about 10% to 20% in the relative change of the conditional core damage probability in the station blackout scenario. This effect should be fully considered when using dynamic PRA in critical decision-making, such as that on regulations.
Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2279 - 2286, 2020/11
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is one of the methods used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. When the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA, a particular limitation is the difficulty in considering the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components fail. To overcome this limitation, we coupled thermal-hydraulic and external-event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID). Internal flooding was chosen as the representative external event, and a pressurized water reactor plant model was used. Equations based on Bernoulli's theorem were applied to flooding propagation in the turbine building. In the analysis, uncertainties were taken into account, including the flow rate of the flood water source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. In terms of recovery action, isolation of the flood water source by the operator and drainage using a pump were modeled based on several assumptions. The results indicate that the isolation action became more effective when combined with drainage.
Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Proceedings of Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2020 (SNA + MC 2020), p.308 - 315, 2020/10
Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for improving the realism and completeness of conventional PRA. However, enormous calculation costs are incurred by these improvements. One solution is to select an appropriate sampling method. In this paper, we applied the Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, grid-point, and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods to the dynamic PRA of a simplified accident sequence and compared the results for each method. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling was found to be the most effective method in this case.
Tanaka, Masaaki; Nakada, Kotaro*; Kudo, Yoshiro*
Nihon Kikai Gakkai-Shi, 123(1222), p.26 - 29, 2020/09
In the nuclear engineering, simulations are used in radiation, thermal hydraulic, chemical reaction, and structural fields, and the integrated fields thereof, to be applied to the design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities. This article describes brief history of discussion in the AESJ to the publication and introductory explanation of the procedures in the five major elements described in the "Guideline for Credibility Assessment of Nuclear Simulations (AESJ-SC-A008: 2015)". And also, a practical experience of the V&V activity according to the fundamental concept indicated in the Guideline is introduced.
Tanaka, Masaaki; Kudo, Yoshiro*; Nakada, Kotaro*; Koshizuka, Seiichi*
Proceedings of 18th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-18) (USB Flash Drive), p.1473 - 1484, 2019/08
Verification and validation (V&V) including uncertainty quantification on modeling and simulation activities has been very much focused on. Due to increase of requirement for standardization of the procedures on the V&V and prediction process to enhance the simulation credibility, "Guideline for Credibility Assessment of Nuclear Simulations (AESJ-SC-A008: 2015)" was published on July 2016 from the AESJ through ten-year discussion. The paper describes brief history of discussion in the AESJ to the publication and introductory explanation of the procedures in the five major elements and one scheme described in the Guideline. And also, a practical experience of the V&V activity according to the fundamental concept indicated in the Guideline is introduced.
Nakada, Kotaro*; Kudo, Yoshiro*; Koshizuka, Seiichi*; Tanaka, Masaaki
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO
, 60(3), p.173 - 177, 2018/03
The Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) published "Guideline for Credibility Assessment of Nuclear Simulations 2015" in June, 2016 which specifies the concepts on methodology for the prediction with uncertainty quantification and the quality management based on the concept of verification and validation (V&V) of modeling and simulation. In this report, the outlines of activities in AESJ for publication of the guideline and the expectation for effective implementation of the guideline are described including that of the lectures with major respondents of the questionnaires.
Takeuchi, Masayuki; Aihara, Haruka; Nakahara, Masaumi; Tanaka, Kotaro*
Procedia Chemistry, 21, p.182 - 189, 2016/12
Times Cited Count：2 Percentile：81.17(Chemistry, Inorganic & Nuclear)A simulation technology with electrolyte thermodynamic model has been developed to evaluate the precipitation behavior in reprocessing solution based on nitric acid solution. The simulation results were compared with the experiment data from non-radioactive simulated HLLW with ten elements and Pu-Zr-Mo solution, and the reliability of the thermodynamic model was verified. Most of the precipitation species was zirconium molybdate hydrate from the both data. It is demonstrated that the chemical species and amount of the precipitation calculated by thermodynamic model reflected well that of experiments. This study has shown the thermodynamic simulation model is one of the useful tools to estimate the behavior of precipitation from the reprocessing solution.
Seki, Kotaro; Sasaki, Takayuki*; Akimoto, Yuji*; Tokunaga, Takahito; Tanaka, Kiwamu; Haraga, Tomoko; Ueno, Takashi; Ishimori, Kenichiro; Hoshi, Akiko; Kameo, Yutaka
JAEA-Technology 2016-013, 37 Pages, 2016/07
JAEA-Technology-2016-013.pdf:2.09MB
In this study, based on the simple and rapid analytical method established from the wastes from research facilities, we created analytical schemes which is applicable to rubble and plants collected at Fukushima Daiichi, then transported to Nuclear Science Research Institute of JAEA. We examined the applicability, and confirmed quantifiability of radioactivity concentration with high recovery rate without being affected by fission products such as 
Sr and 
Cs.
collisions at 
= 200 and 62.4 GeVAdare, A.*; Afanasiev, S.*; Aidala, C.*; Ajitanand, N. N.*; Akiba, Yasuyuki*; Al-Bataineh, H.*; Alexander, J.*; Aoki, Kazuya*; Aphecetche, L.*; Armendariz, R.*; et al.
Physical Review C, 83(6), p.064903_1 - 064903_29, 2011/06
Times Cited Count：184 Percentile：99.44(Physics, Nuclear)Transverse momentum distributions and yields for 
, and 
in collisions at = 200 and 62.4 GeV at midrapidity are measured by the PHENIX experiment at the RHIC. We present the inverse slope parameter, mean transverse momentum, and yield per unit rapidity at each energy, and compare them to other measurements at different collisions. We also present the scaling properties such as 
and 
scaling and discuss the mechanism of the particle production in collisions. The measured spectra are compared to next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations.
and Au+Au collisions at 
= 200 GeVAdare, A.*; Afanasiev, S.*; Aidala, C.*; Ajitanand, N. N.*; Akiba, Yasuyuki*; Al-Bataineh, H.*; Alexander, J.*; Aoki, Kazuya*; Aphecetche, L.*; Aramaki, Y.*; et al.
Physical Review C, 83(4), p.044912_1 - 044912_16, 2011/04
Times Cited Count：8 Percentile：49.7(Physics, Nuclear)Measurements of electrons from the decay of open-heavy-flavor mesons have shown that the yields are suppressed in Au+Au collisions compared to expectations from binary-scaled collisions. Here we extend these studies to two particle correlations where one particle is an electron from the decay of a heavy flavor meson and the other is a charged hadron from either the decay of the heavy meson or from jet fragmentation. These measurements provide more detailed information about the interaction between heavy quarks and the quark-gluon matter. We find the away-side-jet shape and yield to be modified in Au+Au collisions compared to collisions.
Nakagiri, Toshio; Tanaka, Kotaro
JNC TN9400 2005-026, 42 Pages, 2005/08
Design study of AMTEC system for Sodium Cooled FBR was performed. Evaluated maximum electricity generation efficiency was 49% which is increased about 9% higher than the case only steam generation system was used.
Kubo, Shinji; Yoshida, Mitsunori; Sakurai, Makoto*; Tanaka, Kotaro*; Miyashita, Reiko*
Bunri Gijutsu, 35(3), p.148 - 152, 2005/05
no abstracts in English
Tanaka, Kotaro; Nakagiri, Toshio; Takahiro, Fujii; Takeo, Honda
JNC TN9400 2004-005, 24 Pages, 2004/03
JNC-TN9400-2004-005.pdf:0.87MB
Material transport characteristics in Molybdenum (Mo) electrode for low temperature Alkali Metal Electric Conversion (AMTEC) at about 900K, were evaluated. It is known that Mo electrode shows superior sodium transport performance compared with other electrode materials because of ion conductive material in Mo electrode. In this study, morphology factor "G" which was related to impedance for sodium transport was confirmed to be effective to evaluate sodium transport performance, in the experiments using the SETC (Sodium Exposure Test Cell) at 900K - 1,050K. Evaluated power density in the case of Mo electrode at 900K was 50% higher than that of TiN electrode; therefore, the possibility of higher performance electrode for low temperature AMTEC at about 900K was confirmed.
