Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kadowaki, Masanao; Tsuzuki, Katsunori
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 22 Pages, 2023/00
It is essential to establish a method for reconstructing the source term and spatiotemporal distribution of radionuclides released into the atmosphere due to a nuclear accident for emergency countermeasures. We examined the dependency of a source term estimation method based on Bayesian inference using atmospheric dispersion simulation and environmental monitoring data on the availability of various monitoring data. Additionally, we examined the applicability of this method to a real-time estimation conducted immediately after an accident. A sensitivity analysis of the estimated source term during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident for combinations of various monitoring data indicated that using monitoring data with a high temporal and spatial resolution and the concurrent use of air concentration and surface deposition data is effective for accurate estimation. A real-time source term estimation experiment assuming the situation of monitoring data acquisition during the FDNPS accident revealed that this method could provide the necessary source term for grasping the overview of surface contamination in the early phase and evaluating the approximate accident scale. If the immediate online acquisition of monitoring data and regular operation of an atmospheric dispersion simulation are established, this method can provide the source term in near-real time.
Yoshida, Toshiya; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(1), p.55 - 66, 2022/01
Atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition models (ATDMs) can support decision-making during nuclear emergencies; however, uncertainties in the ATDM results need to be carefully evaluated. To investigate the uncertainties derived from meteorological forecast inputs, we conducted three-day forecast simulations every day for one year with hypothetical releases of radionuclides (one-hour releases every 6 h) from a nuclear facility. The forecast outputs were compared with the analysis outputs during the same period. The difference between the outputs is treated as the uncertainty in the forecasts and is represented as an angle based on the discrepancy in the plume directions between the analysis and forecast outputs. Using meteorological inputs made by Japan Meteorological Agency, the discrepancy angle (Ang) increased by approximately 10 per day on an annual average basis. Meanwhile, the Ang values were occasionally 4-5 times higher than the annual average during short time periods. Since the Ang time series show seasonal and diurnal changes, the statistical characteristics likely depend on the geographical and meteorological conditions, as well as the types of meteorological inputs. Additionally, a main factor in the uncertainty is the wind-direction difference between the analysis and forecast outputs on scales of more than or less than 100 km.
Moriguchi, Yuichi*; Sato, Yosuke*; Morino, Yu*; Goto, Daisuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Terada, Hiroaki; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Tsuruta, Haruo*; Yamazawa, Hiromi*
KEK Proceedings 2021-2, p.21 - 27, 2021/12
no abstracts in English
Kadowaki, Masanao; Furuno, Akiko; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; El-Asaad, H.
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 237, p.106704_1 - 106704_18, 2021/10
The source term of Cs for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident was estimated from the results of local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations and measurements. To confirm the source term's validity for reproducing the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of Cs, this study conducted hemispheric-scale atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations. In the dispersion simulations, the atmospheric-dispersion database system Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI)-DB and oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM were used. Compared with the air concentrations of Cs measured by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, overall, the WSPEEDI-DB simulation reproduced the measurements with some overestimation. Furthermore, the deposition amounts of Cs was investigated using concentrations of Cs in seawater. The simulated seawater concentrations of Cs were underestimated regionally in the North Pacific. The overestimation and underestimation could be improved without contradiction between the air and seawater concentrations of Cs using more realistic precipitation in atmospheric dispersion simulations. This shows that the source term validated in this study could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of Cs because of the FDNPS accident in both local and large-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations.
Nakayama, Hiromasa; Satoh, Daiki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 58(9), p.949 - 969, 2021/09
We introduced a detailed dose calculation method considering building shielding effects into LOcal-scale High-resolution atmospheric DIspersion Model using LES (LOHDIM-LES). To estimate quickly and accurately dose distributions considering shielding effects of buildings, we employed the calculation method using dose-response matrices which were evaluated by photon transport simulations with Particle and Heavy-Ion Transport code System (PHITS). Compared to the air dose rate data obtained from monitoring posts in an actual nuclear facility, it was shown that the calculated dose rate is reasonably simulated well. It is concluded that LOHDIM-LES equipped with the calculation method using dose-response matrices can reasonably estimate the air dose rates considering shielding effects of individual buildings and structures.
Nemoto, Miho*; Ebine, Noriya; Okamoto, Akiko; Hosaka, Yasuhisa*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki; Hayakawa, Tsuyoshi; Togawa, Orihiko
JAEA-Technology 2021-013, 41 Pages, 2021/08
When North Korea has carried out nuclear tests, Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) predicts atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by using the WSPEEDI-II upon requests from Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) and submits the predicted results to NRA in cooperation with Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (NSEC). This is a part of the activity of NEAT supporting the Japanese Government in emergency responses. The WSPEEDI-II automatic calculation system specialized for responses to nuclear tests by North Korea was developed by NSEC and was used for responses to three nuclear tests from February 2013 to September 2017. This report describes the transfer and installation of the calculation system to NEAT, and the subsequent maintenance and operation. Future issues for responses to nuclear tests are also described in this report.
Nakayama, Hiromasa; Yoshida, Toshiya; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao
Atmosphere (Internet), 12(7), p.899_1 - 899_16, 2021/07
In this study, first, we conducted meteorological observations by a Doppler LiDAR and simple plume release experiments by a mist spraying system at the site of Japan Atomic Energy Agency. Then, we developed a framework for prediction system of local-scale atmospheric dispersion based on a coupling of large-eddy simulation (LES) database and on-site meteorological observation. The LES-database was also created by pre-calculating high-resolution turbulent flows in the target site at mean wind directions of class interval. We provided the meteorological observed data with the LES database in consideration of building conditions and calculated three-dimensional distribution of the plume by a Lagrangian dispersion model. Compared to the instantaneous shot of the plume taken by a digital camera, it was shown that the mist plume transport direction was accurately simulated. It was concluded that our proposed framework for prediction system based on a coupling of LES-database and on-site meteorological observation is effective.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu
Isotope News, (775), p.44 - 48, 2021/06
no abstracts in English
Kadowaki, Masanao; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu
Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 8, p.100098_1 - 100098_17, 2020/12
The behaviors of atmospheric I and the global cycle of I remain incompletely understood because the spatiotemporal resolution of monitoring is insufficient and few measurement-based models have been reported. This study aims to quantitatively understand the global budget of I. When quantifying, we conduct global atmospheric I dispersion simulations covering from 2007 to 2010. To achieve this goal, the present study newly incorporated the iodine chemistry processes of two gas-phase chemical reactions, six photolysis reactions, and two heterogeneous reactions into an existing atmospheric I transport model (GEARN-FDM). Besides the aerial release of I from nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities, the model includes the volatilization processes of I compounds from Earth's surface. The net I exchange fluxes from the atmosphere to the Earth's surface of land and ocean were estimated as 18.0 GBq/y and 5.3 GBq/y, respectively. The global I emission from oceans was estimated as 7.2 GBq/y, nearly half of the emission totals were emitted from the English Channel (3.2 GBq/y). In addition, the global I emission from land was estimated as 1.7 GBq/y. The remarkable I emission from land was mainly appeared in Europe, Russia, and North America, and the emission distribution is impacted by the activities of the past and ongoing nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities. The total I emission from ocean and land is lower than the I emission from the model-included nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities (23.3 GBq/y), showing that the aerial release of nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities in operation is still an important I source.
Sato, Yosuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Fang, S.*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Qurel, A.*; Qulo, D.*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 7, p.100086_1 - 100086_12, 2020/10
The third model intercomparison project for investigating the atmospheric behavior of Cs emitted during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident (FDNPP-MIP) was conducted. A finer horizontal grid spacing (1 km) was used than in the previous FDNPP-MIP. Nine of the models used in the previous FDNPP-MIP were also used, and all models used identical source terms and meteorological fields. Our analyses indicated that most of the observed high atmospheric Cs concentrations were well simulated, and the good performance of some models improved the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The analyses also confirmed that the use of a finer grid resolution resulted in the meteorological field near FDNPP being better reproduced. The good representation of the wind field resulted in the reasonable simulation of the narrow distribution of high deposition amount to the northwest of FDNPP and the reduction of the overestimation over the area to the south of FDNPP. In contrast, the performance of the models in simulating plumes observed over the Nakadori area, the northern part of Gunma, and the Tokyo metropolitan area was slightly worse.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(6), p.745 - 754, 2020/06
We have estimated source term and analyzed processes of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident by the Worldwide version of System for Environmental Emergency Dose Information. On the basis of this experience, we developed an dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs in a nuclear emergency and provide useful information for emergency-response planning. By this method, if a release point is known, it is possible to immediately obtain the prediction results by applying provided source term to the database of dispersion-calculation results prepared in advance. With this function, it is easy to compare results by applying various source term with monitoring data, and to find out the optimum source term, which was applied for the source term estimation of the FDNPS accident. By performing this calculation with past meteorological-analysis data, it is possible to immediately get dispersion-calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions. This database can be used for pre-accident planning, such as optimization of a monitoring plan and understanding of events to be supposed in considering emergency countermeasures.
Takegami, Hiroaki; Noguchi, Hiroki; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Iwatsuki, Jin; Kamiji, Yu; Kasahara, Seiji; Imai, Yoshiyuki; Terada, Atsuhiko; Kubo, Shinji
Nuclear Engineering and Design, 360, p.110498_1 - 110498_6, 2020/04
Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has been conducting R&D on the thermochemical iodine-sulfur (IS) process for nuclear-powered hydrogen production. The IS process is one of the promising candidates of heat application of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. JAEA fabricated main chemical reactors made of industrial structural materials and confirmed their integrity in practical corrosive environments in the IS process. Based on the results of these confirmation tests, JAEA have constructed a 100 NL/h-H-scale test facility made of industrial structural materials. In this report, we succeeded in extending the hydrogen production time from 8 hours to 31 hours by developing a stable hydrogen iodide solution transfer technology in a continuous hydrogen production test. In addition, using the fracture test data of the ceramic specimen, an equation for estimating the strength of the ceramic component was developed.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Furuno, Akiko; Kadowaki, Masanao; Kakefuda, Toyokazu*
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 213, p.106104_1 - 106104_13, 2020/03
In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan, the spatial and temporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment is necessary to be reconstructed by computer simulations with the atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition model (ATDM) and source term of radioactive materials discharged into the atmosphere is essential. In this study, we carried out refinement of the source term and improvement of ATDM simulation by using an optimization method based on Bayesian inference with various measurements (air concentration, surface deposition, and fallout). We also constructed the spatiotemporal distribution of some major radionuclides in the air and on the surface (optimized dispersion database) by using the optimized release rates and ATDM simulations which is used for the comprehensive dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the accident.
Ota, Masakazu; Terada, Hiroaki; Hasegawa, Hidenao*; Kakiuchi, Hideki*
Science of the Total Environment, 704, p.135319_1 - 135319_15, 2020/02
Land-surface transfers of I are modeled and incorporated into a land-surface model (SOLVEG-II), and the model was applied to the observed transfer of I at a vegetated field impacted by atmospheric releases of I from Rokkasho reprocessing plant during 2007 to investigate the importance of each I-transfer pathway. The model calculation revealed that contamination of leaves of wild bamboo grasses was mostly caused by foliar adsorption of I (81%) induced via wet deposition of I. Wet deposition of I was the main I-input to the soil, ten-fold the dry deposition of I; however, the deposition of I during 2007 was only 2% of the model-assumed I that pre-existed in the soil; indicating the importance of long-term accumulation of I in soils. The model calculation also revealed that root uptake of I, not methylation, control the long-term turnover of soil I.
Iwasaki, Toshiki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Watanabe, Akira*; Suzuki, Yasushi*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Morino, Yu*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment, 214, p.116830_1 - 116830_11, 2019/10
The utilization of numerical atmospheric dispersion prediction (NDP) models for accidental discharge of radioactive substances was recommended by a working group of the Meteorological Society of Japan. This paper is to validate the recommendation through NDP model intercomparison in the accidental release from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Emission intensity is assumed to be constant during the whole forecast period for the worst-case scenario unless time sequence of emission is available. We expect to utilize forecasts of surface air contaminations for preventions of inhalations of radioactive substances, and column-integrated amounts for mitigation of radiation exposure associated with wet deposition. Although NDP forecasts have ensemble spread, they commonly figure out relative risk in space and time. They are of great benefit to disseminating effective warnings to public without failure. The multi-model ensemble technique may be effective to improve the reliability.
Ishizaki, Shuhei; Hayakawa, Tsuyoshi; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki; Togawa, Orihiko
JAEA-Technology 2018-007, 43 Pages, 2018/10
When North Korea has carried out a nuclear test, by a request from Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) predicts atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by WSPEEDI-II system in cooperation with Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (NSEC), and submits the predicted results to NRA as the activity to assist responses by the Japanese Government. This report explains frameworks of the Japanese Government and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) to cope with nuclear tests by North Korea, and describes a series of activities by NEAT regarding predictions of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides in response to the 5th and 6th nuclear tests carried out by North Korea in September 2016 and September 2017. Future plans and issues to be solved for responses to nuclear tests are also described in this report, together with an outline of a computer program system used in the predictions.
Sato, Yosuke*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Uchida, Junya*; Goto, Daisuke*; Qulo, D.*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(20), p.11748 - 11765, 2018/10
A model intercomparison of the atmospheric dispersion of Cs emitted following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident was conducted by 12 models to understand the behavior of Cs in the atmosphere. The same meteorological data, horizontal grid resolution, and an emission inventory were applied to all the models to focus on the model variability originating from the processes included in each model. The multi-model ensemble captured 40% of the observed Cs events, and the figure-of-merit in space for the total deposition of Cs exceeded 80. Our analyses indicated that the meteorological data were most critical for reproducing the Cs events. The results also revealed that the differences among the models were originated from the deposition and diffusion processes when the meteorological field was simulated well. However, the models with strong diffusion tended to overestimate the Cs concentrations.
Takegami, Hiroaki; Noguchi, Hiroki; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Iwatsuki, Jin; Kamiji, Yu; Kasahara, Seiji; Imai, Yoshiyuki; Terada, Atsuhiko; Kubo, Shinji
Proceedings of 9th International Topical Meeting on High Temperature Reactor Technology (HTR 2018) (USB Flash Drive), 7 Pages, 2018/10
Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has been conducting R&D on the thermochemical iodine-sulfur (IS) process for nuclear-powered hydrogen production. The IS process is one of the promising candidates of heat application of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. JAEA fabricated main chemical reactors made of industrial structural materials and confirmed their integrity in practical corrosive environments in the IS process. Based on the results of these confirmation tests, JAEA have constructed a 100 NL/h-H-scale test facility made of industrial structural materials. This report will present an outline and results of hydrogen production tests and reliability improvements of operation stability and components, such as development of a strength estimation method for heat-resistant and corrosion-resistant ceramics components made of silicon carbide.
Kadowaki, Masanao; Katata, Genki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Suzuki, Takashi; Hasegawa, Hidenao*; Akata, Naofumi*; Kakiuchi, Hideki*
Atmospheric Environment, 184, p.278 - 291, 2018/07
The long-lived radioactive iodine (I) is a useful geochemical tracer in the atmospheric environment. We recently observed clear seasonal trends in air concentration and deposition of I in Japan. Using these data, we developed a global atmospheric I transport model to reveal key processes for the global atmospheric I cycle. The model generally reproduced the observed seasonal change in air concentration and deposition of I in Japan, and the global distribution of I concentration in rain as presented in past literature. Numerical experiments changing the intensity of anthropogenic and natural sources were conducted to quantify the impact of anthropogenic sources on the global I cycle. The results indicated that the atmospheric I from the anthropogenic sources was deposited in winter and can be accumulated mainly in the northern part of Eurasia. In contrast, the atmospheric I from the natural sources dominated the deposition in summer. These results suggested that the re-emission process of I from the Earth's surface may be important as a secondary impact of I in the global-scaled environment. Furthermore, although wet deposition dominated the total deposition in the Northern hemisphere, dry deposition regionally and seasonally contributed to the total deposition over arctic and northern part of Eurasia in winter, suggesting that the dry deposition may play a key role in the seasonal change of I deposition in the Northern hemisphere high latitudes.
Kitayama, Kyo*; Morino, Yu*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Hayami, Hiroshi*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Saito, Kazuo*; Shimbori, Toshiki*; Kajino, Mizuo*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(14), p.7754 - 7770, 2018/07
We compared seven atmospheric transport model results for Cs released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. All the results had been submitted for a model intercomparison project of the Science Council of Japan in 2014. We assessed model performance by comparing model results with observed hourly atmospheric concentrations of Cs, focusing on nine plumes over the Tohoku and Kanto regions. The results showed that model performance for Cs concentrations was highly variable among models and plumes. We also assessed model performance for accumulated Cs deposition. Simulated areas of high deposition were consistent with the plume pathways, though the models that best simulated Cs concentrations were different from those that best simulated deposition. The ensemble mean of all models consistently reproduced Cs concentrations and deposition well, suggesting that use of a multimodel ensemble results in more effective and consistent model performance.