Development of a particle-tracking model for explosive release and its coupling with the atmospheric dispersion model

Irie, Kenta; Terada, Hiroaki; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Takano, Masahide

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 299, p.108140_1 - 108140_20, 2026/09

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2026.108140

This study develops an Explosive-release Particle Tracking Model (EPTM) and couples it with the Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI) to explicitly represent the explosion-induced initial condition in atmospheric dispersion simulation. The developed model is designed to resolve the particle dynamics immediately after an explosive release and to provide a physically based initial condition for subsequent atmospheric transport simulations. To demonstrate the capability and impact of EPTM, numerical experiments were conducted under the idealized meteorological field. The results show that the impact of explosion-induced initial motion on concentration and surface deposition is substantial near the explosion point but diminishes with transport distance. Immediately after explosive release, the explosive case produces a rapid vertical redistribution of radioactive materials. This vertical redistribution increases concentration near the surface and increases surface deposition near the release point compared with the non-explosive case. As a result, air concentration maxima and surface deposition patterns near the explosion point are controlled by the explosion-driven initial conditions represented by EPTM. In contrast, in the downwind area, differences in air concentration and surface deposition between the explosive and non-explosive cases become small because horizontal advection and turbulent diffusion govern the spatial distribution of the concentration and deposition, reducing the relative influence of the initial explosion as the plume evolves. Consequently, increasing explosive energy amplifies the contrast of air concentration and surface deposition near the explosion point while exerting limited influence on downwind concentration and deposition distributions.

Role of neutron Bragg-edge spectroscopy in development of practical magnetic materials

Mamiya, Hiroaki*; Terada, Noriki*; Hiroi, Kosuke; Shinohara, Takenao; Sepehri-Amin, H.*

Journal of Applied Physics, 138(14), p.143904_1 - 14390_10, 2025/10

https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0285904

To effective use of atmospheric dispersion calculations in nuclear emergency response and preparedness; Development of WSPEEDI-DB

Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO, 67(2), p.113 - 117, 2025/02

https://doi.org/10.3327/jaesjb.67.2_113

no abstracts in English

Application of Bayesian machine learning for estimation of uncertainty in forecasted plume directions by atmospheric dispersion simulations

Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Yoshida, Toshiya*; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(10), p.1194 - 1207, 2023/10

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2023.2177763

This study develops an estimation method using machine learning for uncertainty in forecasted plume directions. Bayesian machine learning was used in the machine learning approach. A three-day forecast simulation was conducted every day from 2015-2020, considering a hypothetical release of Cs from a nuclear facility to create training and test datasets for the machine learning. The findings reveal that the rate of good predictability was greater than 50% even in the forecast 36 h later when investigating the effectiveness of the Bayesian model on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, the frequency of miss prediction of higher uncertainty was low (0.9%-7.9%) throughout the forecast period. However, the rate of over-prediction of uncertainty increased with forecast time up to 31.2%, which is acceptable as a conservative estimation. These results show that the Bayesian model used in this study effectively estimates the uncertainty of plume directions predicted through atmospheric dispersion simulations.

Dependency of the source term estimation method for radionuclides released into the atmosphere on the available environmental monitoring data and its applicability to real-time source term estimation

Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kadowaki, Masanao; Tsuzuki, Katsunori

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(8), p.980 - 1001, 2023/08

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2022.2162139

It is essential to establish a method for reconstructing the source term and spatiotemporal distribution of radionuclides released into the atmosphere due to a nuclear accident for emergency countermeasures. We examined the dependency of a source term estimation method based on Bayesian inference using atmospheric dispersion simulation and environmental monitoring data on the availability of various monitoring data. Additionally, we examined the applicability of this method to a real-time estimation conducted immediately after an accident. A sensitivity analysis of the estimated source term during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident for combinations of various monitoring data indicated that using monitoring data with a high temporal and spatial resolution and the concurrent use of air concentration and surface deposition data is effective for accurate estimation. A real-time source term estimation experiment assuming the situation of monitoring data acquisition during the FDNPS accident revealed that this method could provide the necessary source term for grasping the overview of surface contamination in the early phase and evaluating the approximate accident scale. If the immediate online acquisition of monitoring data and regular operation of an atmospheric dispersion simulation are established, this method can provide the source term in near-real time.

Evaluation of uncertainties derived from meteorological forecast inputs in plume directions predicted by atmospheric dispersion simulations

Yoshida, Toshiya; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(1), p.55 - 66, 2022/01

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2021.1951862

Atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition models (ATDMs) can support decision-making during nuclear emergencies; however, uncertainties in the ATDM results need to be carefully evaluated. To investigate the uncertainties derived from meteorological forecast inputs, we conducted three-day forecast simulations every day for one year with hypothetical releases of radionuclides (one-hour releases every 6 h) from a nuclear facility. The forecast outputs were compared with the analysis outputs during the same period. The difference between the outputs is treated as the uncertainty in the forecasts and is represented as an angle based on the discrepancy in the plume directions between the analysis and forecast outputs. Using meteorological inputs made by Japan Meteorological Agency, the discrepancy angle (Ang) increased by approximately 10 per day on an annual average basis. Meanwhile, the Ang values were occasionally 4-5 times higher than the annual average during short time periods. Since the Ang time series show seasonal and diurnal changes, the statistical characteristics likely depend on the geographical and meteorological conditions, as well as the types of meteorological inputs. Additionally, a main factor in the uncertainty is the wind-direction difference between the analysis and forecast outputs on scales of more than or less than 100 km.

Validity of the source term for the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident estimated using local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of Cs

Kadowaki, Masanao; Furuno, Akiko; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; El-Asaad, H.

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 237, p.106704_1 - 106704_18, 2021/10

AA2020-0871.pdf:23.67MB

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2021.106704

The source term of Cs for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident was estimated from the results of local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations and measurements. To confirm the source term's validity for reproducing the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of Cs, this study conducted hemispheric-scale atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations. In the dispersion simulations, the atmospheric-dispersion database system Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI)-DB and oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM were used. Compared with the air concentrations of Cs measured by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, overall, the WSPEEDI-DB simulation reproduced the measurements with some overestimation. Furthermore, the deposition amounts of Cs was investigated using concentrations of Cs in seawater. The simulated seawater concentrations of Cs were underestimated regionally in the North Pacific. The overestimation and underestimation could be improved without contradiction between the air and seawater concentrations of Cs using more realistic precipitation in atmospheric dispersion simulations. This shows that the source term validated in this study could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of Cs because of the FDNPS accident in both local and large-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations.

Transfer and operation of WSPEEDI-II automatic calculation system for responses to nuclear tests by North Korea

Nemoto, Miho*; Ebine, Noriya; Okamoto, Akiko; Hosaka, Yasuhisa*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki; Hayakawa, Tsuyoshi; Togawa, Orihiko

JAEA-Technology 2021-013, 41 Pages, 2021/08

JAEA-Technology-2021-013.pdf:2.52MB

When North Korea has carried out nuclear tests, Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) predicts atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by using the WSPEEDI-II upon requests from Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) and submits the predicted results to NRA in cooperation with Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (NSEC). This is a part of the activity of NEAT supporting the Japanese Government in emergency responses. The WSPEEDI-II automatic calculation system specialized for responses to nuclear tests by North Korea was developed by NSEC and was used for responses to three nuclear tests from February 2013 to September 2017. This report describes the transfer and installation of the calculation system to NEAT, and the subsequent maintenance and operation. Future issues for responses to nuclear tests are also described in this report.

Atmospheric dispersion database system WSPEEDI-DB; Quicker calculation of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials under various meteorological and release conditions

Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu

Isotope News, (775), p.44 - 48, 2021/06

https://www.jrias.or.jp/books/cat3/2021/775.html

no abstracts in English

A Model intercomparison of atmospheric Cs concentrations from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, phase III; Simulation with an identical source term and meteorological field at 1-km resolution

Sato, Yosuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Fang, S.*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Qurel, A.*; Qulo, D.*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.

Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 7, p.100086_1 - 100086_12, 2020/10

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2020.100086

The third model intercomparison project for investigating the atmospheric behavior of Cs emitted during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident (FDNPP-MIP) was conducted. A finer horizontal grid spacing (1 km) was used than in the previous FDNPP-MIP. Nine of the models used in the previous FDNPP-MIP were also used, and all models used identical source terms and meteorological fields. Our analyses indicated that most of the observed high atmospheric Cs concentrations were well simulated, and the good performance of some models improved the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The analyses also confirmed that the use of a finer grid resolution resulted in the meteorological field near FDNPP being better reproduced. The good representation of the wind field resulted in the reasonable simulation of the narrow distribution of high deposition amount to the northwest of FDNPP and the reduction of the overestimation over the area to the south of FDNPP. In contrast, the performance of the models in simulating plumes observed over the Nakadori area, the northern part of Gunma, and the Tokyo metropolitan area was slightly worse.