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Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; *; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *
JNC TJ9400 2001-013, 110 Pages, 2001/02
JNC-TJ9400-2001-013.pdf:5.29MB
In this study, the general assessment system developed last year was improved so that we could perform multi-sided comparison and evaluation between FBR cycle reactor models quantitatively and objectively. At first, we developed multi-sided evaluation system written in VBA. And then many processes (calculation of coefficients for utility functions, analysis by MUF, and pair comparison, etc.) could be performed on a Personal Computer with simple operation. And the following fuctions were also added in the system; consideration of uncertainty in design data on evaluated results, estimation of the potential of FBR, the absolute evaluation method to get over the weakness of AHP, and so on. Moreover, a concept of comparison with compact reactors and the way of including a new evaluation item, public acceptance, in the evaluation structure are discussed. Although it is important to consider public acceptance for introduction of FBR, it was not included in the assessment structure of the previous study. In this study, we pointed out that public acceptance as a new assessment item of the FBR cycles evaluation system should be included. Ideas to include the item in the system in phase 2 were also discussed. Due to the improvement of the system in this study, we believe that the FBR cycle's evaluation system is becoming more sophisticated than the previous version.
Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; *; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *
JNC TJ9400 2001-018, 153 Pages, 2001/01
JNC-TJ9400-2001-018.pdf:5.09MB
In order to promote the FDR development, it is necessary to see various benefits brought by introduction of FBR from multiple perspectives and have agood grasp of such benefits quantitatively and an adequate R&D investment scale which corresponds with them. In this study, the structured prototype in the previous study was improved to be able to perform cost-benefit analysis. An example of improvement made in the system is addition of subroutine used for comparison between new energy and benefits brought by introduction of FBR with special emphasis on addition of logic for analyzing externality about the new energy. Other improvement examples are modification of the Conventiona1 Year Expense Ratio method of power generation cost to Average Durable Year Cost method, addition of database function and turning input data into database, and reviewing idea on cost by the type of waste material and price of uranium. The cost-benefit analysis system was also restructured utilizing Microsoft ACCESS so that it should have a data base function. As the result of the improvement mentioned above, we expect that the improved cost-benefit analysis system will have higher generality than the system before; therefore, great deal of benefits brought by application of the system in the future is expected.
Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; Kamezaki, Hiroshi*; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *
JNC TJ9400 2000-012, 92 Pages, 2000/02
JNC-TJ9400-2000-012.pdf:3.18MB
This research aims to develop a system in which aspects necessary for FBR cycle and overall comparison of evaluation items (economy, safety etc.) are evaluated quantitatively and objectively as a part of Nuclear Cycle development's research project of the FBR cycle for practical use. There are various methods in the decision-making support. In this particular situation, features of each method were evaluated based on the analysis of cases with each method. Subsequently we constructed overall evaluation method by combining Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multi-attribution Utility Function Method (MUF) and Cut-off Method. This method has variation in evaluation items, transparency in evaluation process and uncompensation. The six aspects of evaluation are economy, effectiveness of resource use, proliferation resistance, environmental effectiveness, safety, and research and development. The evaluation items and the evaluation index of each aspect were hierarchized and the evaluation structure was constructed. In the present study effect function for each evaluation index and pair comparison for examining significance of each item were utilized to select prospective systems for FBR cycle experimentally. The result confirmed reliability of our general assessment system as a decision-making support system for FBR system.
Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; Kamezaki, Hiroshi*; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *
JNC TJ9440 2000-011, 164 Pages, 2000/01
JNC-TJ9440-2000-011.pdf:4.43MB
In order to promote the FBR development, it is necessary to grasp an adequate R&D investment scale which corresponds with the benefit brought by the research and development. In this study, we aimed to develop the Cost-Benefit Analysis System. The prototype of the system was made based on the concept that had been constructed by the authors in 1998. Simultaneously, a trial calculation was performed based on research of the input items and examination of their validity. The benefit of the FBR development is obtained from calculations of the effect such as environmental benefit and contribution to energy security, safety improvement, reduction in resource import and restraint of price by resource conservation as well as merit brought by the gap of the unit cost of the power generation (generation merit). As some trial calculations, the cost benefit analysises in 102 years, from 1999 to 2100, was performed assuming that would start generation by FBR in 2030. The results of the sensitivity analysis for some parameters showed that FBR would be more beneficial in the society where the discount rate is small, (i.e. a higher value is put in the future.) and conservation of the environment has importance. Such inevitable results confirmed the validity of this system.
Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; Kamezaki, Hiroshi*; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *
JNC TJ9440 2000-001, 147 Pages, 1999/10
JNC-TJ9440-2000-001.pdf:8.42MB
This project aims to do research on forecasts of energy demand structure and electricity generation cost in each power plant in Japan in the 21st century, considering constructing successful FBR scenario. During the process of doing research on forecasts of energy demand structure in Japan, documents published from organizations in inside and outside of Japan were collected. These documents include prospects of economic growth rate, forecasts of amount for energy supply and demand, the maximum amount of introducing new energy resources, CO
regulation, and evaluation of energy best mixture. Organizations in Japan such as Economic Council and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute have provided long-term forecasts until the early 21st century. Meanwhile, organizations overseas have provided forecasts of economic structure, and demand and supply for energy in OECD and East Asia including Japan. In connection with forcasts of electricity generation cost in each power plant, views on the ultimate reserves and cost of resources are reviewed in this report. According to some views on oil reserves, making assumptions based on reserves/production ratio, the maximum length of the time that oil reserves wm last is 150 years. In addition, this report provides summaries of cost and potential role of various resources, including solar energy and wind energy; and views on waste, safety, energy security-related externality cost, and the price of transferring CO emission right.
Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; Kamezaki, Hiroshi*; Yuyama, Tomonori*
JNC TJ9400 99-006, 123 Pages, 1999/03
In this research, we performed investigation and evaluation on cost-benefit, and made system construction of basic concept and conceptual design, prior to the system construction which performs (1) evaluation of cost-benefit of FBR development within the country, and (2) evaluation of cost-benefit for every item for R&D relating to the FBR development. As for the methods for cost-benefit, it shall be suitable to assume that success rate differs depending on the future scenario such as fuel prices and to employ discount rates, considering the point of long-term R&D investment. We also pointed out that establishment of discount rates is the biggest issue which influences the results of evaluation of cost-benefit then. When we grasp the effects, it is required to include the effects such as contribution to environmental benefits and energy security, or improvement of safety, other than real generation merits, as it is a public investment. Therefore we made investigations and developments on the way to understand the effects qualitatively. Based on the results, we made a proposal on application to the system, and then showed evaluation flows on the cost-benefit system. We also pointed out that it is a future task to be considered to establish fuel cost scenario or input data or parameters such as value of statistical life or CO reduction, as they are primary factors which influence evaluation results or system reliabilities.