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Kubo, Kotaro; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(3), p.357 - 367, 2022/03
Times Cited Count：5 Percentile：72.97(Nuclear Science & Technology)Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which handles epistemic and aleatory uncertainties by coupling the thermal-hydraulics simulation and probabilistic sampling, enables a more realistic and detailed analysis than conventional PRA. However, enormous calculation costs are incurred by these improvements. One solution is to select an appropriate sampling method. In this paper, we applied the Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, grid-point, and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods to the dynamic PRA of a station blackout sequence in a boiling water reactor and compared each method. The result indicated that quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method handles the uncertainties most effectively in the assumed scenario.
Matsumoto, Toshinori; Iwasawa, Yuzuru; Ajima, Kohei*; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2020/11
The probability of ex-vessel debris coolability under the wet cavity strategy is analyzed. The first step is the uncertainty analyses by severe accident analysis code MELCOR to obtain the melt condition. Five uncertain parameters which are relating with the core degradation and transfer process were chosen. Input parameter sets were generated by LHS. The analyses were conducted and the conditions of the melt were obtained. The second step is the analyses for the behavior of melt under the water by JASMINE code. The probabilistic distribution of parameters are determined from the results of MELCOR analyses. Fifty-nine parameter sets were generated by LHS. The depth of water pool is set to be 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 m. Debris height were compared with the criterion to judge the debris coolability. As the result, the success probability of debris cooling was obtained through the sequence of calculations. The technical difficulties of this evaluation method are also discussed.
Takahashi, Tomoyuki*; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo
JAERI-Data/Code 2000-041, 108 Pages, 2001/01
JAERI-Data-Code-2000-041.pdf:4.86MB
no abstracts in English
Ishigami, Tsutomu; Homma, Toshimitsu
Proc. of lst Int. Symp. on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, p.398 - 403, 1990/12
no abstracts in English
Ishigami, Tsutomu
JAERI-M 89-190, 66 Pages, 1989/11
no abstracts in English
Ishigami, Tsutomu; Homma, Toshimitsu
JAERI-M 89-111, 27 Pages, 1989/09
no abstracts in English
