A Comparative study of efficient sampling techniques for uncertainty quantification due to cross-section covariance data

Fujita, Tatsuya

Proceedings of International Conference on Physics of Reactors (PHYSOR 2024) (Internet), p.718 - 727, 2024/04

https://doi.org/10.13182/PHYSOR24-43640

The convergence process of the k-infinity uncertainty during random-sampling-based uncertainty quantification was compared between several efficient sampling techniques. The k-infinity uncertainty was evaluated by statistically processing several times of SERPENT 2.2.1 calculations using perturbed ACE files based on JENDL-5 cross-section covariance data. The antithetic sampling (AS), the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), the control variates (CV), and the combination approaches of them were focused on in the present paper. In PWR-UO fuel assembly geometry without the nuclide depletion, as discussed in past studies, AS and LHS showed higher efficient convergence than nominal sampling without any efficient sampling techniques. In terms of CV, though a stand-alone application did not have a large impact on the k-infinity uncertainty convergence, its performance was improved in combination with AS, as discussed in the past study. In addition, a new combined approach of LHS and CV (CV+LHS) was proposed in the present paper. CV+LHS improved the k-infinity uncertainty convergence and was more efficient than CV+AS. The main reason for this improvement was that the convergence for the mean value of alternative parameters in CV was enhanced by applying LHS. Consequently, this study proposed the new combined approach of CV+LHS and confirmed its efficiency performance for the random-sampling-based uncertainty quantification in the PWR-UO fuel assembly geometry. The applicability of CV+LHS for the nuclide-depletion calculations will be confirmed in future studies.

The Analysis for Ex-Vessel debris coolability of BWR

Matsumoto, Toshinori; Iwasawa, Yuzuru; Ajima, Kohei*; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2020/11

The probability of ex-vessel debris coolability under the wet cavity strategy is analyzed. The first step is the uncertainty analyses by severe accident analysis code MELCOR to obtain the melt condition. Five uncertain parameters which are relating with the core degradation and transfer process were chosen. Input parameter sets were generated by LHS. The analyses were conducted and the conditions of the melt were obtained. The second step is the analyses for the behavior of melt under the water by JASMINE code. The probabilistic distribution of parameters are determined from the results of MELCOR analyses. Fifty-nine parameter sets were generated by LHS. The depth of water pool is set to be 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 m. Debris height were compared with the criterion to judge the debris coolability. As the result, the success probability of debris cooling was obtained through the sequence of calculations. The technical difficulties of this evaluation method are also discussed.

An Importance quantification technique in uncertainty analysis for computer models

Ishigami, Tsutomu; Homma, Toshimitsu

Proc. of lst Int. Symp. on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, p.398 - 403, 1990/12

no abstracts in English

An importance quantification technique in uncertainty analysis for computer models

Ishigami, Tsutomu; Homma, Toshimitsu

JAERI-M 89-111, 27 Pages, 1989/09

JAERI-M-89-111.pdf:0.68MB

no abstracts in English