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Journal Articles

Application of polynomial chaos expansion technique to dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 13 Pages, 2021/10

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is extensively used, e.g., in periodical safety review and the reactor oversight process, in nuclear regulation systems to improve the safety of nuclear power plants; however, one limitation of classical PRA is the handling of temporal information such as system failure and core damage timings. To resolve this limitation, the dynamic PRA method has been developed and applied for multiple safety issues; however, its improvement is accompanied by considerable computational costs. In this study, we applied the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to dynamic PRA with the expectation of reduction in computational cost. In particular, to estimate core damage timing, a PCE-based surrogate model was developed. Then, the surrogate model was applied to dynamic PRA to calculate the conditional core damage probability and core damage timing. Consequently, applying the PCE might efficiently perform these analyses without considerable reduction in accuracy.

Journal Articles

Development of effectiveness evaluations technology of the measures for improving resilience of nuclear structures at ultra high temperature

Onoda, Yuichi; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2021/10

The effectiveness evaluations technology of the measures for improving resilience by applying a fracture control concept under ultra-high temperature conditions has developed for prototype sodium-cooled fast reactor Monju as a model plant, and the trial evaluation has conducted using this technology in this paper. The important accident sequences to which the fracture control concept is expected to be applied under ultra-high temperature condition are identified by investigating the results of the existing researches of level-2 probabilistic risk assessment for Monju. Accident sequences categorized in protected loss of heat sink and loss of reactor level are both identified as such important accident sequences which has the potential to prevent core damage. This study has developed the technology to evaluate the effectiveness of improving resilience, where the headings which stand for success or failure of the measures to improve resilience are introduced into the event tree, the branch probability of them is set, and the effectiveness of improving resilience is expressed as the reduction of core damage frequency. As a result of the trial evaluation of the effectiveness for the measures to improve resilience, it is confirmed that core damage frequency can be reduced by applying fracture control concept. The branch probability of the measures to improve resilience proposed in this study is tentatively assigned based on the assumption. This value is expected to be quantified by the forthcoming analyses of the integrity for the reactor vessel structure at ultra-high temperature. The technology developed in this study will be applied for the evaluation of improving resilience of the next generation sodium-cooled fast reactor.

Journal Articles

Evaluation of risk dilution effects in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi

Proceedings of 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021) (Internet), p.810 - 817, 2021/09

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method of effectively evaluating risks in nuclear power plants and is used in various agencies. Dynamic PRA is attracting considerable attention, as it enables realistic assessment by reducing the assumptions and engineering judgments related to time-dependent failure probability and/or human action reliability. However, it is difficult to remove all assumptions and engineering judgments. Therefore, their effects on assessment results should be understood. This study focuses on the "risk dilution effect," which arises from assumptions about uncertainty. Results showed that this effect causes a difference of about 10% to 20% in the relative change of the conditional core damage probability in the station blackout scenario. This effect should be fully considered when using dynamic PRA in critical decision-making, such as that on regulations.

Journal Articles

Thermal-hydraulics to risk assessment; Roles of thermal-hydraulics simulation to risk assessment

Maruyama, Yu; Yoshida, Kazuo

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO$$Sigma$$, 63(7), p.517 - 522, 2021/07

no abstracts in English

JAEA Reports

Internal dose coefficients for various gastrointestinal absorption fractions (Contract research)

Hirouchi, Jun; Tokashiki, Yuji*; Takahara, Shogo; Manabe, Kentaro

JAEA-Research 2021-001, 284 Pages, 2021/03

JAEA-Research-2021-001.pdf:4.23MB

Doses to the public are calculated with internal dose coefficients based on the publications of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in OSCAAR, which is a level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment code developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The gastrointestinal absorption fraction, $$f_{1}$$, which is one of parameters of internal dose coefficient, is given the recommended value. However, although it has been reported that $$f_{1}$$ has uncertainty, the uncertainty analysis of $$f_{1}$$ has been performed on few radionuclides. In this report, to evaluate the influence of uncertainty of $$f_{1}$$ on the internal dose, we calculated the internal dose coefficient with various $$f_{1}$$, and derive the relationship between the coefficient and $$f_{1}$$. As a result, we indicate that the relationships are expressed by a linear function for radionuclides with a half-life of more than 0.5 days and are expressed by a cubic function for radionuclides with a half-life of less than 0.5 days.

JAEA Reports

Development of the technology for preventing radioactive particles' dispersion during the fuel debris retrieval (Contract research); FY2019 Nuclear Energy Science & Technology and Human Resource Development Project

Collaborative Laboratories for Advanced Decommissioning Science; The University of Tokyo*

JAEA-Review 2020-043, 116 Pages, 2021/01

JAEA-Review-2020-043.pdf:7.74MB

The Collaborative Laboratories for Advanced Decommissioning Science (CLADS), Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), had been conducting the Nuclear Energy Science & Technology and Human Resource Development Project (hereafter referred to "the Project") in FY2019. The Project aims to contribute to solving problems in the nuclear energy field represented by the decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. (TEPCO). For this purpose, intelligence was collected from all over the world, and basic research and human resource development were promoted by closely integrating/collaborating knowledge and experiences in various fields beyond the barrier of conventional organizations and research fields. The sponsor of the Project was moved from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to JAEA since the newly adopted proposals in FY2018. On this occasion, JAEA constructed a new research system where JAEA-academia collaboration is reinforced and medium-to-long term research/development and human resource development contributing to the decommissioning are stably and consecutively implemented. Among the adopted proposals in FY2018, this report summarizes the research results of the "Development of the technology for preventing radioactive particles' dispersion during the fuel debris retrieval" conducted in FY2019. In this study, a technique to effectively suppress the scattering of fine particles has been developed, and as a result of experiments, a method of spraying with water mist was found to be an effective and applicable method for improving aerosol removal efficiency and removal rate. As a method of solidifying fuel debris to suppress fine particle scattering during cutting, geopolymer was evaluated for its strength, thermal conductivity and cutting powder. In addition, flow status of geopolymer and the temperature distribution inside RPV covered by geopolymer were simulated.

Journal Articles

Dynamic PRA of flooding-initiated accident scenarios using THALES2-RAPID

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2279 - 2286, 2020/11

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is one of the methods used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. When the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA, a particular limitation is the difficulty in considering the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components fail. To overcome this limitation, we coupled thermal-hydraulic and external-event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID). Internal flooding was chosen as the representative external event, and a pressurized water reactor plant model was used. Equations based on Bernoulli's theorem were applied to flooding propagation in the turbine building. In the analysis, uncertainties were taken into account, including the flow rate of the flood water source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. In terms of recovery action, isolation of the flood water source by the operator and drainage using a pump were modeled based on several assumptions. The results indicate that the isolation action became more effective when combined with drainage.

Journal Articles

Simulation-based Level 2 multi-unit PRA using RAVEN and a simplified thermal-hydraulic code

Zheng, X.; Mandelli, D.*; Alfonsi, A.*; Smith, C.*; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki

Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2176 - 2183, 2020/11

Journal Articles

Enhancement of the treatment of system interactions in a dynamic PRA tool

Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Zheng, X.; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki

Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2195 - 2201, 2020/11

Journal Articles

Case study on sampling techniques using machine learning and simplified physical model for simulation-based dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2020/11

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) enables a more realistic and detailed analysis than classical PRA. However, the trade-off for these improvements is the enormous computational cost associated with performing a large number of thermal-hydraulic (TH) analyses. In this study, based on machine learning (ML), we aim to reduce these costs by skipping the TH analysis. For the ML algorithm, we selected a support vector machine; we built it using a high-fidelity/high-cost detailed model and low-fidelity/low-cost simplified model. As a result, the computational costs could be reduced by approximately 80% without significantly decreasing the accuracy under the assumed conditions.

Journal Articles

A Comparative study of sampling techniques for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2020 (SNA + MC 2020), p.308 - 315, 2020/10

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for improving the realism and completeness of conventional PRA. However, enormous calculation costs are incurred by these improvements. One solution is to select an appropriate sampling method. In this paper, we applied the Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, grid-point, and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods to the dynamic PRA of a simplified accident sequence and compared the results for each method. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling was found to be the most effective method in this case.

Journal Articles

For better understanding of PRA; Guidance for better usage and application of PRA, 3; Consideration of external hazard in PRA

Takata, Takashi*; Yamano, Hidemasa; Narumiya, Yoshiyuki*

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO$$Sigma$$, 62(8), p.448 - 451, 2020/08

This report describes risk analysis applicable to selection and evaluation of external hazards in risk assessment. Volcanic ash hazard evaluation is shown as one of hazard evaluations. The objective of the risk assessment is to secure and improve the safety of nuclear installation. This report also describes discussion on the process of response informed based on risk evaluation against external hazards.

Journal Articles

Uncertainty quantification of seismic response of reactor building considering different modeling methods

Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Muramatsu, Ken*; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*

Proceedings of 2020 International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 2020) (Internet), 5 Pages, 2020/08

After the 2011 Fukushima accident, the seismic regulation for Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) have been strengthened to take countermeasures against accidents beyond design basis conditions. Therefore, the importance of seismic probabilistic risk assessment has drawn much attention. Uncertainty quantification is a very important issue in the fragility assessment for NPP buildings. In this study, the authors focus on the epistemic uncertainty that can be reduced, and aims to clarify the effects due to different modeling methods of NPP buildings on seismic response results. As the first step of this study, the authors compared the effects on seismic response using two kinds of modeling methods. In order to evaluate the effect, seismic response analysis was performed on two types of building models; the three dimensional finite element model and the conventional lumped mass with sway-rocking model. As the input ground motion, the authors adopted 200 types of simulated seismic ground motions generated by fault rupture models with stochastic seismic source characteristics. For the uncertainty quantification, the authors conducted statistical analyses of the effects on seismic response results of two kinds of modeling methods on building response for each input ground motions, and quantitatively evaluated the uncertainty of response considering different modeling methods. In particular, the difference in modeling methods clearly appeared near the openings of the floors and walls. The authors also report on the knowledge about these three-dimensional effects in seismic response analysis.

JAEA Reports

Development of technology to prevent scattering of radioactive materials in fuel debris retrieval (Contract research); FY2018 Center of World Intelligence Project for Nuclear Science/Technology and Human Resource Development

Collaborative Laboratories for Advanced Decommissioning Science; The University of Tokyo*

JAEA-Review 2019-037, 90 Pages, 2020/03

JAEA-Review-2019-037.pdf:7.0MB

JAEA/CLADS, had been conducting the Center of World Intelligence Project for Nuclear Science/Technology and Human Resource Development (hereafter referred to "the Project") in FY2018. The Project aims to contribute to solving problems in nuclear energy field represented by the decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. For this purpose, intelligence was collected from all over the world, and basic research and human resource development were promoted by closely integrating/collaborating knowledge and experiences in various fields beyond the barrier of conventional organizations and research fields. The sponsor of the Project was moved from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to JAEA since the newly adopted proposals in FY2018. On this occasion, JAEA constructed a new research system where JAEA-academia collaboration is reinforced and medium-to-long term research/development and human resource development contributing to the decommissioning are stably and consecutively implemented. Among the adopted proposals in FY2018, this report summarizes the research results of the "Development of Technology to Prevent Scattering of Radioactive Materials in Fuel Debris Retrieval". The objective of the present study is to clarify the behavior of microparticles in gas and liquid phases in order to steadily confine radioactive microparticles at the time of debris retrieval in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. In addition, as measures to prevent scattering, we will evaluate and develop methods by experiments and simulation as to; (1) a method to suppress the scattering with minimum amount of water utilizing water spray etc., and (2) a method to suppress the scattering by solidifying fuel debris.

Journal Articles

Evaluation of the effects of differences in building models on the seismic response of a nuclear power plant structure

Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Muramatsu, Ken*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*

Nihon Jishin Kogakkai Rombunshu (Internet), 20(2), p.2_1 - 2_16, 2020/02

AA2018-0122.pdf:2.15MB

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Development of a fast reactor and related thermal hydraulics studies in Japan

Ohshima, Hiroyuki; Kamide, Hideki

Proceedings of 18th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-18) (USB Flash Drive), p.2095 - 2107, 2019/08

Development of a sodium-cooled fast reactor has been implemented in Japan from the viewpoint of severe accident countermeasures. This paper describes the progress of research and development related to safety enhancement and the severe accident countermeasures. A volcanic PRA methodology was developed for the proper consideration of external hazards. Water and sodium experiments were carried out for the decay heat removal in a core disruptive accident (CDA), and also thermal hydraulic interactions between the core and upper plenum where dipped heat exchanger was operated. In order to elucidate the behavior of molten fuel during CDA, basic experiments of core melt fragmentation in deep and shallow sodium pools were carried out. X-ray visualization showed the liquid column of molten steel was intensively fragmented nearly simultaneously with a rapid expansion of sodium vapor.

Journal Articles

Visualizing an ignition process of hydrogen jets containing sodium mist by high-speed imaging

Doi, Daisuke; Seino, Hiroshi; Miyahara, Shinya*; Uno, Masayoshi*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 56(6), p.521 - 532, 2019/06

 Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:23.13(Nuclear Science & Technology)

Journal Articles

Level 1 PRA for external vessel storage tank of Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor in whole core refueling

Yamano, Hidemasa; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Okano, Yasushi; Naruto, Kenichi*

Proceedings of 12th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics, Operation and Safety (NUTHOS-12) (USB Flash Drive), 15 Pages, 2018/10

Spent fuels are transferred from a reactor core to a spent fuel pool through an external vessel storage tank (EVST) filled with sodium in sodium-cooled fast reactors in Japan. This paper describes identification of dominant accident sequences leading to fuel failure, which was achieved through probabilistic risk assessment for the EVST designed for a next sodium-cooled fast reactor plant system in Japan to improve the EVST design. The safety strategy for the EVST involves whole core refueling (early transfer of all core fuel assemblies into the EVST) assuming a severe situation that results in sodium level reduction leading finally to the top of the reactor core fuel assemblies in a long time. This study introduces the success criteria mitigation along the decay heat decrease over time. Based on the design information, this study has carried out identification of initiating events, event and fault tree analyses, a probability analysis for human error, and quantification of accident sequences. The fuel damage frequency of the EVST was evaluated to be approx. 10$$^{-5}$$/year. The dominant accident sequence resulted from the static failure and human error for the switching from the stand-by to operation mode in the three stand-by cooling circuits after loss of one circuit for refueling heat removal operation as an initiating phase.

Journal Articles

Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against volcanic eruption for sodium-cooled fast reactors

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamamoto, Takahiro*

ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B; Mechanical Engineering, 4(3), p.030902_1 - 030902_9, 2018/09

This paper describes volcanic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development for sodium-cooled fast reactors. The volcanic ash could potentially clog air filters of air-intakes that are essential for the decay heat removal. The degree of filter clogging can be calculated by atmospheric concentration of ash and tephra fallout duration and also suction flow rate of each component. The atmospheric concentration can be calculated by deposited tephra layer thickness, tephra fallout duration and fallout speed. This study evaluated a volcanic hazard using a combination of tephra fragment size, layer thickness and duration. In this paper, each component functional failure probability was defined as a failure probability of filter replacement obtained by using a grace period to a filter failure limit. Finally, based on an event tree, a core damage frequency was estimated about 3$$times$$10$$^{-6}$$/year in total by multiplying discrete hazard probabilities by conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the loss of decay heat removal system due to the filter clogging after the loss of emergency power supply. In addition, sensitivity analyses have investigated the effects of a tephra arrival reduction factor and pre-filter covering.

Journal Articles

Development of a probabilistic risk assessment methodology against a combination hazard of strong wind and rainfall for sodium-cooled fast reactors

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 5(4), p.18-00093_1 - 18-00093_19, 2018/08

This paper describes the development of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology against a combination hazard of strong wind and rainfall. In this combination hazard PRA, a hazard curve is evaluated in terms of maximum instantaneous wind speed, hourly rainfall, and rainfall duration. A scenario analysis has provided event sequences resulting from the combination hazard of strong wind and rainfall. The typical event sequence was characterized by the function loss of auxiliary cooling system, of which heat transfer tubes could crack due to cycle fatigue caused by cyclic contacts with rain droplets. This cycle fatigue crack could occur if rain droplets enter into the air cooler of the system following the coolers roof failure due to strong-wind-generated missile impact. This event sequence has been incorporated into an event tree which addresses component failure caused by the combination hazard. As a result, a core damage frequency has been estimated to be about 10$$^{-6}$$/year in total by multiplying discrete hazard frequencies by conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. The dominant sequence is the manual operation failure of an air cooler damper following the failure of external fuel tank due to the missile impact. The dominant hazard is the maximum instantaneous wind speed of 20-40 m/s, the hourly rainfall of 20-40 mm/h, and the rainfall duration of 0-10 h.

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