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Futagami, Satoshi
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO, 66(11), p.555 - 559, 2024/11
no abstracts in English
Ishitsuka, Etsuo; Nagasumi, Satoru; Hasegawa, Toshinari; Kawai, Hiromi*; Wakisaka, Shinji*; Nagase, Sota*; Nakamura, Kento*; Yaguchi, Hiroki*; Ishii, Toshiaki; Nakano, Yumi*; et al.
JAEA-Technology 2024-008, 23 Pages, 2024/07
Five people from three universities participated in the 2023 summer holiday practical training with the theme of "Technical development on HTTR". The participants practiced the analysis of HTTR core, the analysis of behavior on loss of forced cooling test, the analysis of Iodine deposition behavior in primary cooling system and the feasibility study of energy storage system for HTGRs. In the questionnaire after this training, there were impressions such as that it was useful as a work experience and some students found it useful for their own research. These impressions suggest that this training was generally evaluated as good.
Futagami, Satoshi; Yamano, Hidemasa; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Ujita, Hiroshi*
Proceedings of PSAM 2023 Topical Conference AI & Risk Analysis for Probabilistic Safety/Security Assessment & Management, 8 Pages, 2023/10
To create an innovation for efficient and effective social implementation of nuclear power plant PRA, automatic construction tool for fault tree architecture and automatic failure judgment tool to construct reliability database are developed by using AI and digitization technology. This paper describes overall development plan of PRA methodology using the AI technology and the progress of automatic FT creation tools development.
Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 237(5), p.947 - 957, 2023/10
Times Cited Count:5 Percentile:56.65(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. However, the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components are damaged is difficult to estimate if the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA based on event trees and fault trees. A methodology coupling thermal-hydraulic analysis with external event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID) is therefore proposed to overcome this limitation. A flood propagation model based on Bernoulli's theorem was applied to represent internal flooding in the turbine building of the pressurized water reactor. Uncertainties were also taken into account, including the flow rate of the floodwater source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. The simulated recovery actions included the operator isolating the floodwater source and using a drainage pump; these actions were modeled using several simplifications. Overall, the results indicate that combining isolation and drainage can reduce the conditional core damage probability upon the occurrence of flooding by approximately 90%.
Wang, Q.*; Ma, N.*; Huang, W.*; Shi, J.*; Luo, X.-T.*; Tomitaka, Sora*; Morooka, Satoshi; Watanabe, Makoto*
Materials Research Letters (Internet), 11(9), p.742 - 748, 2023/09
Times Cited Count:2 Percentile:20.10(Materials Science, Multidisciplinary)Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken
Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 10(4), p.23-00051_1 - 23-00051_17, 2023/08
The significance of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants against external events was re-recognized after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Regarding the seismic PRA, handling correlated failures of systems, components, and structures (SSCs) is very important because this type of failure negatively affects the redundancy of accident mitigation systems. The Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute initially developed a fault tree quantification methodology named the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM) to handle SSCs' correlated failures in detail and realistically. This methodology allows quantifying the top event occurrence probability by considering correlated uncertainties related to seismic responses and capacities with Monte Carlo sampling. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. However, improving its computational efficiency would allow risk analysts to perform several analyses. Therefore, we applied quasi-Monte Carlo and importance sampling to the DQFM calculation of simplified seismic PRA and examined their effects. Specifically, the conditional core damage probability of a hypothetical pressurized water reactor was analyzed with some assumptions. Applying the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling accelerates the convergence of results at intermediate and high ground motion levels by an order of magnitude over Monte Carlo sampling. The application of importance sampling allows us to obtain a statistically significant result at a low ground motion level, which cannot be obtained through Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling. These results indicate that these applications provide a notable acceleration of computation and raise the potential for the practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.
Ishitsuka, Etsuo; Ho, H. Q.; Kitagawa, Kanta*; Fukuda, Takahito*; Ito, Ryo*; Nemoto, Masaya*; Kusunoki, Hayato*; Nomura, Takuro*; Nagase, Sota*; Hashimoto, Haruki*; et al.
JAEA-Technology 2023-013, 19 Pages, 2023/06
Eight people from five universities participated in the 2022 summer holiday practical training with the theme of "Technical development on HTTR". The participants practiced the feasibility study for nuclear battery, the burn-up analysis of HTTR core, the feasibility study for Cf production, the analysis of behavior on loss of forced cooling test, and the thermal-hydraulic analysis near reactor pressure vessel. In the questionnaire after this training, there were impressions such as that it was useful as a work experience, that some students found it useful for their own research, and that discussion with other university students was a good experience. These impressions suggest that this training was generally evaluated as good.
Kubo, Kotaro
Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations, 2023, p.7402217_1 - 7402217_12, 2023/06
Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:41.04(Nuclear Science & Technology)Onoda, Yuichi; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Proceedings of 30th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE30) (Internet), 7 Pages, 2023/05
The objective of this study is to develop an effectiveness evaluation methodology of the measures for improving resilience of nuclear structures at ultra-high temperature by using the failure mitigation technology. At the beginning, to identify the accident sequences having the potential to improve resilience, the characteristics of a next-generation loop-type sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) in Japan has been investigated by analyzing the event tree of level-1 and level-2 probabilistic risk assessment. As a result, event sequences of loss of heat removal systems (LOHRS) are identified. The effectiveness of the measures for improving resilience is evaluated by quantifying the reduction rate of core damage frequency before and after the introduction of the measures for improving resilience for all the accident sequences leading to LOHRS. To examine applicability of the developed methodology, a trial evaluation has conducted for a next-generation loop-type SFR in Japan. Through the applicability examined, the method for the effectiveness evaluation was developed successfully. The refinement of the conditional success probability of the measures for improving resilience is the future work.
Li, C.-Y.; Watanabe, Akira*; Uchibori, Akihiro; Okano, Yasushi
Proceedings of 30th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE30) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2023/05
Yamazaki, Yasuhiro*; Shinomiya, Keisuke*; Okumura, Tadaharu*; Suzuki, Kenji*; Shobu, Takahisa; Nakamura, Yuiga*
Quantum Beam Science (Internet), 7(2), p.14_1 - 14_12, 2023/05
Kubo, Kotaro; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(4), p.359 - 373, 2023/04
Times Cited Count:8 Percentile:83.23(Nuclear Science & Technology)Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an essential approach to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. However, this method includes certain difficulties, such as modeling of combinations of multiple hazards. Seismic-induced flooding scenario includes several core damage sequences, i.e., core damage caused by earthquake, flooding, and combination of earthquake and flooding. The flooding fragility is time-dependent as the flooding water propagates from the water source such as a tank to compartments. Therefore, dynamic PRA should be used to perform a realistic risk analysis and quantification. This study analyzed the risk of seismic-induced flooding events by coupling seismic, flooding, and thermal-hydraulics simulations, considering the dependency between multiple hazards explicitly. For requirements of safety improvement, especially in light of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, sensitivity analysis was performed on the seismic capacity of systems, and the effectiveness of alternative steam generator injection by a portable pump was estimated. We demonstrate the use of this simulation-based dynamic PRA methodology to evaluate the risk induced by a combination of hazards.
Koike, Akari*; Nemoto, Masaya*; Nakashima, Risako*; Sakai, Takaaki*; Doda, Norihiro; Tanaka, Masaaki
Proceedings of 2023 International Congress on Advanced in Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP 2023) (Internet), 2 Pages, 2023/04
To evaluate the effect of the operator's recognition of the accident management (AM) necessity on plant safety, the operator's recognition of the AM necessity was modeled as a function of time-dependent success probability, and dynamic PRA analyses were performed for a sodium-cooled fast reactor during abnormal snowfall. The analysis results showed that the operator's recognition of the snowfall can avoid the core damage at an earlier stage after the accident.
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi*; Ishikawa, Jun
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 11 Pages, 2023/00
Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:33.61(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Li, Y.; Takada, Tsuyoshi
Earthquake Engineering and Resilience (Internet), 1(4), p.427 - 439, 2022/12
no abstracts in English
Sun, Haomin; Leblois, Y.*; Gelain, T.*; Porcheron, E.*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(11), p.1356 - 1369, 2022/11
Times Cited Count:0 Percentile:0.00(Nuclear Science & Technology)In severe accident scenarios of PWR, containment spray can be employed to washout the aerosol of radioactive materials, retaining them in the containment. Therefore, it is crucial to correctly predict the washout efficiency for safety assessment. For a PWR, a high spray coverage ratio ( 84%-95%) is required. However, experimental studies on the washout with such a high coverage ratio in a large vessel are quite limited. To understand such a washout phenomenon for model development, aerosol washout experiments are performed in a large vessel with not only aerosol measurements but also spray droplet characterizations. The spray coverage ratios are experimentally confirmed to be compatible with a real PWR. The washout features are investigated in detail. The model in MELCOR is examined using the measured aerosol removal rate, showing the removal rate tendency against particle diameters being reproduced. Although a significant underestimation occurs for large particles, a satisfactory agreement is obtained for smaller ones (0.52 m in diameter) corresponding to the minimum removal rate and around.
Koike, Akari*; Nakashima, Risako*; Nemoto, Masaya*; Sakai, Takaaki*; Doda, Norihiro; Tanaka, Masaaki
Proceedings of 12th Japan-Korea Symposium on Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics and Safety (NTHAS12) (Internet), 4 Pages, 2022/10
Due to global warming, the amount of snowfall in abnormal snowfall events may increase in the future. In order to evaluate the effect of global warming on the probability of exceeding the limit temperature at the core outlet as a core damage factor in a sodium-cooled fast reactor, a hazard curve of snowfall was developed considering global warming, and a dynamic PRA was performed. As a result, it was found that the amount of snowfall in abnormal snowfall events increases due to global warming, and the probability of exceeding the limit temperature increases.
Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Takahara, Shogo; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu
Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM16) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2022/09
Nakashima, Risako*; Koike, Akari*; Sakai, Takaaki*; Doda, Norihiro; Tanaka, Masaaki
Proceedings of 29th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 29) (Internet), 6 Pages, 2022/08
In development of a quantitative risk assessment method to the external hazards for a sodium-cooled fast reactor, a dynamic PRA using the Continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method was performed to evaluate the effect of global warming on the probability of exceeding the temperature limit as a core damage factor. There is a possibility that the amount of snowfall in abnormal snowfall events will increase due to global warming in the future. A hazard curve of snowfall considering global warming was developed. The results show that the probability of exceeding the temperature limit is increased by the abnormal snowfall events due to global warming.
Kubo, Kotaro; Fujiwara, Keita*; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken*
Proceedings of 29th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 29) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2022/08
After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, the importance of conducting probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of external events, especially seismic activities and tsunamis, was recognized. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing a computational methodology for seismic PRA, called the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM). When appropriate correlation matrices are available for seismic responses and capacities of components, the DQFM makes it possible to consider the effect of correlated failures of components connected through AND and/or OR gates in fault trees, which is practically difficult when methods using analytical solutions or multidimensional numerical integrations are used to obtain minimal cut set probabilities. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. Nevertheless, a reduction of the computational time of DQFM would allow the large number of analyses required in PRAs conducted by regulators and/or operators. We; therefore, performed scoping calculations using three different approaches, namely quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing, to improve calculation efficiency. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing were applied when calculating the conditional core damage probability of a simplified PRA model of a pressurized water reactor, using the DQFM method. The results indicated that the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling works well at assumed medium and high ground motion levels, importance sampling is suitable for assumed low ground motion level, and that parallel computing enables practical uncertainty and importance analysis. The combined implementation of these improvements in a PRA code is expected to provide a significant acceleration of computation and offers the prospect of practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.