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Metcalfe, R.*; Benbow, S. J.*; 川間 大介*; 舘 幸男
Science of the Total Environment, 958, p.177690_1 - 177690_17, 2025/01
花崗岩が隆起している条件を対象とした地層処分の安全評価においては、隆起による地質条件の変化とそれに伴う放射性核種の移行・遅延特性への影響を考慮する必要がある。このような地質環境の長期変遷を考慮した安全評価では、十分に現実的な数値モデルと適切なパラメータを適用する必要がある。しかしながら、隆起過程には、岩石特性や核種移行特性の変化などを含む複雑な連成現象が含まれるため、モデルの開発には困難を伴う。ここでは、いくつかの代表的な放射性核種を対象とした連成モデル解析を通じて、現実的で保守的なプロセスの概念化とモデルパラメータの設定を検討するための方法論を提示する。
Metcalfe, R.*; 川間 大介*; Benbow, S. J.*; 舘 幸男
no journal, ,
A safety case for an underground radioactive waste repository must show that the surrounding geosphere barrier will prevent or adequately retard radionuclide migration via groundwater, despite any future environmental changes. Uplift is one such environmental change that may affect some potential repository sites. This may be a particularly important issue in Japan, where possibly in future repository sites undergoing tectonically driven uplift might be considered. At early stages of a project to site a radioactive waste repository, generic safety cases are typically based on simplified/conservative assessment models. However, at an actual repository site, more realistic models are needed that account for the long-term geoenvironmental evolution and their impacts on radionuclide migration/retention. Here we review the state of knowledge about how properties of fractured crystalline rocks evolve during uplift, based on studies in Japan. Hence, we propose how this knowledge may be incorporated in assessment models in a way that strikes appropriate balance between being sufficiently realistic and sufficiently simple to allow exploration of parameter uncertainty.