Evolution of radionuclide transport and retardation processes in uplifting granitic rocks, Part 2; Modelling coupled processes in uplift scenarios

花崗岩の隆起過程における放射性核種の移行と遅延プロセスの変遷,Part 2; 隆起シナリオにおける複合プロセスのモデル化

Metcalfe, R.*; Benbow, S. J.*; 川間 大介*; 舘 幸男  

Metcalfe, R.*; Benbow, S. J.*; Kawama, Daisuke*; Tachi, Yukio

花崗岩が隆起している条件を対象とした地層処分の安全評価においては、隆起による地質条件の変化とそれに伴う放射性核種の移行・遅延特性への影響を考慮する必要がある。このような地質環境の長期変遷を考慮した安全評価では、十分に現実的な数値モデルと適切なパラメータを適用する必要がある。しかしながら、隆起過程には、岩石特性や核種移行特性の変化などを含む複雑な連成現象が含まれるため、モデルの開発には困難を伴う。ここでは、いくつかの代表的な放射性核種を対象とした連成モデル解析を通じて、現実的で保守的なプロセスの概念化とモデルパラメータの設定を検討するための方法論を提示する。

Uplifting fractured granitic rocks occur in substantial areas of countries such as Japan. A repository site would be selected in such an area only if it is possible to make a safety case, accounting for the changing conditions during uplift. The safety case must include robust arguments that chemical processes in the rocks around the repository will contribute sufficiently to minimise radiological doses to biosphere receptors. To provide confidence in the safety arguments, numerical models need to be sufficiently realistic, but also parameterised conservatively (pessimistically). However, model development is challenging because uplift involves many complex couplings between groundwater flow, chemical reactions between water and rock, and changing rock properties. The couplings would affect radionuclide mobilisation and retardation, by influencing diffusive radionuclide fluxes between groundwater flowing in fractures and effectively immobile porewater in the rock matrix and radionuclide partitioning between water and solid phases, via: (i) mineral precipitation/dissolution; (ii) mineral alteration; and (iii) sorption/desorption. It is difficult to represent all this complexity in numerical models while showing that they are parameterised conservatively. Here we present a modelling approach, illustrated by simulation cases for some exemplar radioelements, to identify realistically conservative process conceptualisations and model parameterisations.