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Journal Articles

Impact of soil erosion potential uncertainties on numerical simulations of the environmental fate of radiocesium in the Abukuma River basin

Ikenoue, Tsubasa; Shimadera, Hikari*; Kondo, Akira*

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 225, p.106452_1 - 106452_12, 2020/12

 Times Cited Count:0 Percentile:100(Environmental Sciences)

This study focused on the uncertainty of the factors of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and evaluated its impacts on the environmental fate of $$^{137}$$Cs simulated by a radiocesium transport model in the Abukuma River basin. The USLE has five physically meaningful factors: the rainfall and runoff factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), topographic factor (LS), cover and management factor (C), and support practice factor (P). The simulation results showed total suspended sediment and $$^{137}$$Cs outflows were the most sensitive to C and P among the all factors. Therefore, land cover and soil erosion prevention act have the great impact on outflow of suspended sediment and $$^{137}$$Cs. Focusing on land use, the outflow rates of $$^{137}$$Cs from the forest areas, croplands, and undisturbed paddy fields were large. This study indicates that land use, especially forest areas, croplands, and undisturbed paddy fields, has a significant impact on the environmental fate of $$^{137}$$Cs.

Journal Articles

Evaluation of the effects of differences in building models on the seismic response of a nuclear power plant structure

Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Muramatsu, Ken*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*

Nippon Jishin Kogakkai Rombunshu (Internet), 20(2), p.2_1 - 2_16, 2020/02

AA2018-0122.pdf:2.15MB

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Estimation method of systematic uncertainties in Monte Carlo particle transport simulation based on analysis of variance

Hashimoto, Shintaro; Sato, Tatsuhiko

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 56(4), p.345 - 354, 2019/04

 Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:100(Nuclear Science & Technology)

Particle transport simulations based on the Monte Carlo method have been applied to shielding calculations. Estimation of not only statistical uncertainty related to the number of trials but also systematic one induced by unclear physical quantities is required to confirm the reliability of calculated results. In this study, we applied a method based on analysis of variance to shielding calculations. We proposed random- and three-condition methods. The first one determines randomly the value of the unclear quantity, while the second one uses only three values: the default value, upper and lower limits. The systematic uncertainty can be estimated adequately by the random-condition method, though it needs the large computational cost. The three-condition method can provide almost the same estimate as the random-condition method when the effect of the variation is monotonic. We found criterion to confirm convergence of the systematic uncertainty as the number of trials increases.

Journal Articles

Improvement of plant reliability based on combining of prediction and inspection of crack growth due to intergranular stress corrosion cracking

Uchida, Shunsuke; Chimi, Yasuhiro; Kasahara, Shigeki; Hanawa, Satoshi; Okada, Hidetoshi*; Naito, Masanori*; Kojima, Masayoshi*; Kikura, Hiroshige*; Lister, D. H.*

Nuclear Engineering and Design, 341, p.112 - 123, 2019/01

 Times Cited Count:2 Percentile:46.25(Nuclear Science & Technology)

Improvement of plant reliability based on reliability-centered-maintenance (RCM) is going to be undertaken in NPPs. RCM is supported by risk-based maintenance (RBM). The combination of prediction and inspection is one of the key issues to promote RBM. Early prediction of IGSCC occurrence and its propagation should be confirmed throughout the entire plant systems which should be accomplished by inspections at the target locations followed by timely application of suitable countermeasures. From the inspections, accumulated data will be applied to confirm the accuracy of the code, to tune some uncertainties of the key data for prediction, and then, to increase their accuracy. The synergetic effects of prediction and inspection on application of effective and suitable countermeasures are expected. In the paper, the procedures for the combination of prediction and inspection are introduced.

Journal Articles

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of $$beta_{rm eff}$$ for MYRRHA using a Monte Carlo technique

Iwamoto, Hiroki; Stankovskiy, A.*; Fiorito, L.*; Van den Eynde, G.*

European Physical Journal; Nuclear Sciences & Technologies (Internet), 4, p.42_1 - 42_7, 2018/11

This paper presents a nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the effective delayed neutron fraction $$beta_{rm eff}$$ for critical and subcritical cores of the MYRRHA reactor using the continuous-energy Monte Carlo transport code MCNP. The $$beta_{rm eff}$$ sensitivities are calculated by the modified $$k$$-ratio method proposed by Chiba. Comparing the $$beta_{rm eff}$$ sensitivities obtained with different scaling factors $$a$$ introduced by Chiba shows that a value of $$a=20$$ is the most suitable for the uncertainty quantification of $$beta_{rm eff}$$. Using the calculated $$beta_{rm eff}$$ sensitivities and the JENDL-4.0u covariance data, the $$beta_{rm eff}$$ uncertainties for the critical and subcritical cores are determined to be 2.2 $$pm$$ 0.2% and 2.0 $$pm$$ 0.2%, respectively, which are dominated by delayed neutron yield of $$^{239}$$Pu and $$^{238}$$U.

Journal Articles

Uncertainty analysis for source term evaluation of high temperature gas-cooled reactor under accident conditions; Identification of influencing factors in loss-of-forced circulation accidents

Honda, Yuki; Sato, Hiroyuki; Nakagawa, Shigeaki; Ohashi, Hirofumi

Journal of Nuclear Engineering and Radiation Science, 4(3), p.031013_1 - 031013_11, 2018/07

There is growing interest in uncertainty analysis for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The focus of this research is to propose and trial investigate the new approach which identify influencing factors for uncertainty in a systematic manner for High Temperature Gas -cooled Reactor (HTGR). As a trial investigation, this approach is tested to evaluation of maximum fuel temperature in a depressurized loss-of-forced circulation (DLOFC) accident and failure of mitigation systems such as control rod systems from the view point of reactor dynamics and thermal hydraulic characteristics. As a result, 16 influencing factors are successfully selected in accordance with the suggested procedure. In the future, the selected influencing factors will be used as input parameter for uncertainty propagation analysis.

Journal Articles

Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of Floor Responses for a Nuclear Reactor Building

Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Li, Y.; Muramatsu, Ken*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*

Proceedings of 26th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-26) (Internet), 9 Pages, 2018/07

After the 2011 Fukushima accident, nuclear power plants are required to take countermeasures against accidents beyond design basis conditions. In seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA), uncertainty can be classified as either aleatory uncertainty, which cannot be reduced, or epistemic uncertainty, which can be reduced with additional knowledge and/or information. To improve the reliability of SPRA, efforts should be made to identify and reduce the epistemic uncertainty caused by the lack of knowledge. In this study, we focused on the difference in seismic response by modeling methods, which is related epistemic uncertainty. We conducted a seismic response analysis with two kinds of modeling methods; a three-dimensional finite-element model and a conventional sway-rocking stick model, by using simulated various input ground motions, which is related to aleatory uncertainty. And then we quantified the seismic floor response results of the various input ground motions of each modeling methods. For the uncertainty quantification related to different modeling methods, we further perform a statistical analysis of the floor response results of the nuclear reactor building. Finally, we discussed how to utilize the results from these calculations for the quantification of uncertainty in fragility analysis for SPRA.

Journal Articles

Application of Bayesian approaches to nuclear reactor severe accident analysis

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Shiotsu, Hiroyuki; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2017 (ASRAM 2017) (USB Flash Drive), 11 Pages, 2017/11

Journal Articles

Uncertainty evaluation of seismic response of a nuclear facility using simulated input ground motions

Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Muramatsu, Ken*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*

Proceedings of 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability (ICOSSAR 2017) (USB Flash Drive), p.2206 - 2213, 2017/08

In order to clarify the influence of the difference of modeling method on the variation of the result of seismic response analysis of nuclear facility, seismic response analysis using various simulated input ground motions was carried out and the sensitivity analyses of the variations in seismic response was conducted. In particular, we focused on the maximum acceleration response of reactor building shear walls, the effect of modeling method on response result and the factors of response variation were described and discussed.

Journal Articles

Uncertainty analysis for source term evaluation of high temperature gas-cooled reactor under accident conditions; Identification of influencing factors in loss-of-forced circulation accidents

Honda, Yuki; Sato, Hiroyuki; Nakagawa, Shigeaki; Ohashi, Hirofumi

Proceedings of 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-25) (CD-ROM), 9 Pages, 2017/07

There is growing interest in uncertainty analysis for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Our target is the uncertainty analysis method development for depressurized loss-of-forced circulation (DLOFC) accident with failure of control rod systems (CRS). As one of key elements, this paper focuses on the quantification of uncertainty for the fuel temperature which is dominant for a source term analysis. As an initial step, this paper aims to suggest a procedure to identify influencing factors which is input parameter for uncertainty analysis, and shows the results of derivation of variable parameters by expansion of dynamic equation and extraction of uncertainties in variable factors.

Journal Articles

Visualization in response analyses for a nuclear power plant

Nakajima, Norihiro; Nishida, Akemi; Miyamura, Hiroko; Iigaki, Kazuhiko; Sawa, Kazuhiro

Kashika Joho Gakkai-Shi (USB Flash Drive), 36(Suppl.2), 4 Pages, 2016/10

Since nuclear power plants have dimensions approximately 100m$$^{3}$$ and their structures are an assembly made up of over 10 million components, it is not convenient to experimentally analyze its behavior under strong loads of earthquakes, due to the complexity and hugeness of plants. The proposed system performs numerical simulations to evaluate the behaviors of an assembly like a nuclear facility. The paper discusses how to carry out visual analysis for assembly such as nuclear power plants. In a result discussion, a numerical experiment was carried out with a numerical model of High Temperature engineering Test Reactor of Japan Atomic Energy Agency and its result was compared with observed data. A good corresponding among them was obtained as a structural analysis of an assembly by using visualization. As a conclusion, a visual analytics methodology for assembly is discussed.

Journal Articles

Reliability enhancement of seismic risk assessment of NPP as risk management fundamentals; Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in fragility assessment using expert opinions and sensitivity analysis

Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*; Furuya, Osamu*; Muta, Hitoshi*; Muramatsu, Ken

Proceedings of 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM-13) (USB Flash Drive), 8 Pages, 2016/10

In this study, we address epistemic uncertainty in structure fragility estimation of nuclear power plants (NPPs). In order to identify and quantify dominant factors in fragility assessment, sensitivity analyses of seismic analysis results are conducted for a target NPP building using a three-dimensional finite element model and a conventional lumped mass model (embedded sway rocking model), and the uncertainty caused by the major factors is then evaluated. The results are used to classify epistemic uncertainty levels in a fragility estimation workflow for NPPs in several stages, and a graded knowledge tree technique, which can be used for future fragility estimations, is proposed.

Journal Articles

An Integrated approach to source term uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for nuclear reactor severe accidents

Zheng, X.; Ito, Hiroto; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Maruyama, Yu

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 53(3), p.333 - 344, 2016/03

AA2014-0796.pdf:0.84MB

 Times Cited Count:7 Percentile:29.16(Nuclear Science & Technology)

Journal Articles

Scaling issues for the experimental characterization of reactor coolant system in integral test facilities and role of system code as extrapolation tool

Mascari, F.*; Nakamura, Hideo; Umminger, K.*; De Rosa, F.*; D'auria, F.*

Proceedings of 16th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-16) (USB Flash Drive), p.4921 - 4934, 2015/08

Journal Articles

Application of Bayesian nonparametric models to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of source term in a BWR severe accident

Zheng, X.; Ito, Hiroto; Kawaguchi, Kenji; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Maruyama, Yu

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 138, p.253 - 262, 2015/06

 Times Cited Count:6 Percentile:60.77(Engineering, Industrial)

Journal Articles

Numerical modeling assistance system in finite element analysis for the structure of an assembly

Nakajima, Norihiro; Nishida, Akemi; Kawakami, Yoshiaki; Suzuki, Yoshio; Sawa, Kazuhiro; Iigaki, Kazuhiko

Proceedings of 23rd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-23) (DVD-ROM), 5 Pages, 2015/05

A numerical analysis controlling and managing system is implemented on K, which controls the modelling process and data treating, although the manager only controls a structural analysis by finite element method. The modeling process is described by the list of function ID and its procedures in a data base. The manager executes the process by order in the list for simulation procedures. The manager controls the intention of an analysis by changing the analytical process one to another. Experiments were carried out with static and dynamic analyses.

Journal Articles

Uncertainty and sensitivity of accident consequence assessments on meteorological sampling schemes

Homma, Toshimitsu; Liu, X.; Tomita, Kenichi*

Proceedings of 5th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM-5), p.2753 - 2758, 2000/00

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Sensitivity analysis of model output; An Investigation of new techniques

A.Saltelli*; T.H.Andres*; Homma, Toshimitsu

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 15(2), p.211 - 238, 1993/00

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Analysis of uncertainties in summation calculations of decay heat using JNDC FP nuclear data library

Katakura, Junichi; Iijima, Shungo*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 29(1), p.11 - 23, 1992/01

no abstracts in English

30 (Records 1-20 displayed on this page)