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高レベル放射性廃棄物処分における隆起・侵食/沈降・堆積に起因するシナリオの検討

Study on perturbation scenario for potential effect of uplift, denudation, subsidence and sedimentation on a HLW disposal system

川村 淳; 江橋 健; 牧野 仁史; 新里 忠史; 安江 健一; 大井 貴夫

Kawamura, Makoto; Ebashi, Takeshi; Makino, Hitoshi; Niizato, Tadafumi; Yasue, Kenichi; Oi, Takao

隆起・侵食/沈降・堆積は広域的で避けることが困難な現象である。そのため、それらの現象が発端となる地質環境、処分環境及び処分システムの性能への影響を適切に評価する必要がある。日本原子力研究開発機構では現象のバリエーションと推移のパターン、及びそれらに起因して生ずる可能性のある地質環境条件の変化とそれらの時間的な推移等の多様な変動パターンを地球科学の研究に基づき温度,水理,力学,化学,幾何形状(THMCG)の変化の組合せとして系統的に整理する手法を構築した。隆起・侵食/沈降・堆積のどのような組合せによりどのような変化が現れるのか、また処分場の初期の地質環境条件の相違が変動後にどの程度影響しうるのか、構築した手法に基づき網羅的に整理する必要がある。これらは、変動後の地質環境条件の変化の方向やその変動幅に影響するため、隆起・侵食/沈降・堆積に関する重要な変動シナリオを同定するために必要な検討である。本研究は、隆起・侵食/沈降・堆積について発生する可能性のある組合せパターンを可能な限り列挙し、それらに対する考えられる地質環境条件の変化の検討を目的とした。その結果、列挙した現象の組合せパターンに起因する地質環境条件の変化の方向性や程度についてTHMCGを用いた検討比較により、高レベル放射性廃棄物地層処分の安全評価の観点から重要な現象を、根拠を提示しながら抽出することができる見通しを得た。

Uplift, subsidence, denudation, and sedimentation are phenomena over long-term in a regional scale. It is difficult to ignore the impacts of those phenomena on a disposal system completely in long-term. Therefore, type and extent of the impacts on geological and disposal environmental conditions, and disposal systems need to be evaluated quantitatively in order to develop perturbation scenarios. JAEA has been developing a systematic methodology to develop perturbation scenarios based on the appropriate understanding of those phenomena. The variety of the change of geological environment and evolution pattern of the environment, which are caused by the variation of the uplift, subsidence, denudation, sedimentation phenomena and those rates, are understood by arranging the information in the framework of the thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical-geometrical (T-H-M-C-G) system, and the impacts of those environmental change to the performance of the repository system are also examined by using the T-H-M-C-G system. In this study, firstly, the potential changes of the geological environment were identified by examination of possible combinations of the uplift/denudation and subsidence/ sedimentation. The effects of the initial environmental condition are also considered. Geohistorical information and Modern analogue theory should be used in this stage. This procedure is essential to set up the scenarios regarding uplift/denudation and subsidence/sedimentation, to clarify the trend and/or range of the change of the geological environmental conditions. Then, the phenomena which give the large impacts to a disposal system were extracted based on the T-H-M-C-G system. By applying the developed framework which deals with the impacts on the HLW disposal system realistic view and builds evaluation scenarios and models based on step wise manner, we acquired the prospect that realistic uplift and denudation scenario could be built to this examination procedure.

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