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高レベル放射性廃棄物地層処分における性能評価のための隆起・浸食に起因する地質環境条件変化の評価方法の検討

Study on evaluation method of potentional geological environmenral changes of "uplift and erosion" for performance assessment on a high level radioactive waste geological disposal system

川村 淳; 江橋 健; 牧野 仁史; 新里 忠史; 安江 健一; 稲垣 学; 大井 貴夫

Kawamura, Makoto; Ebashi, Takeshi; Makino, Hitoshi; Niizato, Tadafumi; Yasue, Kenichi; Inagaki, Manabu; Oi, Takao

隆起・浸食/沈降・堆積は広域的に生ずる現象であり、長期的には高レベル放射性廃棄物地層処分への影響の不確実性を考慮する必要がある。著者らは、そのために隆起・浸食/沈降・堆積の可能性のある変遷のパターンとそれらに対する地質環境条件の変化を合理的に抽出し変動シナリオを構築する方法論として、隆起・浸食を取り扱うための「概念モデル」を検討した。概念モデルは、検討対象とする領域の地質環境条件をモダンアナログ的な観点から温度(T),水理(H),力学(M),化学(C)及び幾何形状(G)(THMCG)の分布状況で整理し、隆起・浸食/沈降・堆積の可能性のある変遷のパターンについては地史の情報を用いて整理するものである。この方法論に基づきその地域の地史とその周辺地域を含む現在の地質環境条件をモダンアナログ的な観点から情報整理することにより、構築される変動シナリオの科学的合理性の保持と、それを理解したうえでの簡略化が可能となった。また、具体的な地域が与えられた場合においても、本手法を適用することにより評価すべき現象と地質環境条件の変化を抽出でき見通しを得た。

Uplift, subsidence, denudation, and sedimentation are phenomena over long-term in a regional scale. It is difficult to ignore the impacts of those phenomena on a disposal system completely in long-term. Therefore, type and extent of the impacts on geological and disposal environmental conditions, and disposal systems need to be evaluated quantitatively in order to develop perturbation scenarios. We have been developing a systematic methodology to develop perturbation scenarios based on the appropriate understanding of those phenomena. The variety of the change of geological environment and evolution pattern of the environment, which are caused by the variation of the uplift, subsidence, denudation, sedimentation phenomena and those rates, are understood by arranging the information in the framework of the thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical-geometrical (T-H-M-C-G) system, and the impacts of those environmental change to the performance of the repository system are also examined by using the T-H-M-C-G system. In this study, firstly, the potential changes of the geological environment were identified by examination of possible combinations of the uplift/denudation and subsidence/ sedimentation. The effects of the initial environmental condition are also considered. Geohistorical information and View of Modern analogue theory should be used in this stage. This procedure is essential to set up the scenarios regarding uplift/denudation and subsidence/sedimentation, to clarify the trend and/or range of the change of the geological environmental conditions. Then, the phenomena which give the large impacts to a disposal system were extracted based on the T-H-M-C-G system. By applying the developed framework which deals with the impacts on the HLW disposal system realistic view and builds evaluation scenarios and models based on step wise manner, we acquired the prospect that realistic uplift and denudation scenario could be built to this examination procedure.

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