Study on evaluation method of potentional geological environmenral changes of "uplift and erosion" for performance assessment on a high level radioactive waste geological disposal system
Kawamura, Makoto; Ebashi, Takeshi; Makino, Hitoshi ; Niizato, Tadafumi ; Yasue, Kenichi; Inagaki, Manabu; Oi, Takao
Uplift, subsidence, denudation, and sedimentation are phenomena over long-term in a regional scale. It is difficult to ignore the impacts of those phenomena on a disposal system completely in long-term. Therefore, type and extent of the impacts on geological and disposal environmental conditions, and disposal systems need to be evaluated quantitatively in order to develop perturbation scenarios. We have been developing a systematic methodology to develop perturbation scenarios based on the appropriate understanding of those phenomena. The variety of the change of geological environment and evolution pattern of the environment, which are caused by the variation of the uplift, subsidence, denudation, sedimentation phenomena and those rates, are understood by arranging the information in the framework of the thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical-geometrical (T-H-M-C-G) system, and the impacts of those environmental change to the performance of the repository system are also examined by using the T-H-M-C-G system. In this study, firstly, the potential changes of the geological environment were identified by examination of possible combinations of the uplift/denudation and subsidence/ sedimentation. The effects of the initial environmental condition are also considered. Geohistorical information and View of Modern analogue theory should be used in this stage. This procedure is essential to set up the scenarios regarding uplift/denudation and subsidence/sedimentation, to clarify the trend and/or range of the change of the geological environmental conditions. Then, the phenomena which give the large impacts to a disposal system were extracted based on the T-H-M-C-G system. By applying the developed framework which deals with the impacts on the HLW disposal system realistic view and builds evaluation scenarios and models based on step wise manner, we acquired the prospect that realistic uplift and denudation scenario could be built to this examination procedure.