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Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of Floor Responses for a Nuclear Reactor Building

確率論的地震リスク評価におけるモデル手法による原子炉建屋の床応答の不確実さの定量化

崔 炳賢; 西田 明美; Li, Y.; 村松 健*; 高田 毅士*

Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Li, Y.; Muramatsu, Ken*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*

2011年福島原子力発電所事故の後、原子力施設では設計を超える地震動への対策が求められている。確率論的地震リスク評価(SPRA)における不確実さは、低減できない偶然的不確実さと知識や情報収集によって低減可能な認識論的不確実さに分類される。SPRAの信頼度向上のために、知識不足による認識論的不確実さを低減することが必要である。本研究では、認識論的不確実さに関連し、モデル化手法による地震応答の違いに着目する。従来の質点系モデルと3次元有限要素モデルの2種類のモデルを用いて、偶然的不確実さを考慮した多様な入力地震動を用いた地震応答解析を実施する。各モデルで得られた原子炉建屋の床応答の違いについて定量的評価を行う。最後に、SPRAのフラジリティ評価において不確実さ評価結果をどのように活用するかについて議論する。

After the 2011 Fukushima accident, nuclear power plants are required to take countermeasures against accidents beyond design basis conditions. In seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA), uncertainty can be classified as either aleatory uncertainty, which cannot be reduced, or epistemic uncertainty, which can be reduced with additional knowledge and/or information. To improve the reliability of SPRA, efforts should be made to identify and reduce the epistemic uncertainty caused by the lack of knowledge. In this study, we focused on the difference in seismic response by modeling methods, which is related epistemic uncertainty. We conducted a seismic response analysis with two kinds of modeling methods; a three-dimensional finite-element model and a conventional sway-rocking stick model, by using simulated various input ground motions, which is related to aleatory uncertainty. And then we quantified the seismic floor response results of the various input ground motions of each modeling methods. For the uncertainty quantification related to different modeling methods, we further perform a statistical analysis of the floor response results of the nuclear reactor building. Finally, we discussed how to utilize the results from these calculations for the quantification of uncertainty in fragility analysis for SPRA.

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