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Dynamic PRA of flooding-initiated accident scenarios using THALES2-RAPID

THALES2-RAPIDによる溢水起因事故シナリオのダイナミックPRA

久保 光太郎 ; Zheng, X. ; 田中 洋一; 玉置 等史 ; 杉山 智之 ; Jang, S.*; 高田 孝*; 山口 彰*

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

確率論的リスク評価(PRA)は巨大かつ複雑なシステムをリスクを評価する手法の1つである。従来のPRA手法を用いて外部事象のリスクを評価する場合、構造物、系統及び機器の機能喪失時刻の取扱いが困難である。この解決策として、熱水力解析と外部事象評価シミュレーションをRAPID (Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics)コードを用いて結合した。外部事象としてPWRプラントにおけるタービン建屋内での内部溢水を選定し、溢水進展評価にはベルヌーイ則に式を用いた。また、溢水源の流量及び緩和設備の没水基準に関する不確実さを考慮した。回復操作については、運転員による溢水源の隔離とポンプによる排水を仮定とともにモデル化した。結果として、隔離操作が排水と組み合わせることによりより有効になることが示された。

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is one of the methods used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. When the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA, a particular limitation is the difficulty in considering the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components fail. To overcome this limitation, we coupled thermal-hydraulic and external-event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID). Internal flooding was chosen as the representative external event, and a pressurized water reactor plant model was used. Equations based on Bernoulli's theorem were applied to flooding propagation in the turbine building. In the analysis, uncertainties were taken into account, including the flow rate of the flood water source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. In terms of recovery action, isolation of the flood water source by the operator and drainage using a pump were modeled based on several assumptions. The results indicate that the isolation action became more effective when combined with drainage.

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