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Zablackaite, G.; 塩津 弘之; 城戸 健太朗; 杉山 智之
Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 56(2), p.536 - 545, 2024/02
被引用回数：0Radioactive iodine is a representative fission product to be quantified for the safety assessment of nuclear facilities. In integral severe accident analysis codes, the iodine behavior is usually described by a multi-physical model of iodine chemistry in aqueous phase under radiation field and mass transfer through gas-liquid interface. The focus of studies on iodine source term evaluations using the combination approach is usually put on the chemical aspect, but each contribution to the iodine amount released to the environment has not been decomposed so far. In this study, we attempted the decomposition by revising the two-film theory of molecular-iodine mass transfer. The model involves an effective overall mass transfer coefficient to consider the iodine chemistry. The decomposition was performed by regarding the coefficient as a product of two functions of pH and the overall mass transfer coefficient for molecular iodine. The procedure was applied to the EPICUR experiment and suppression chamber in BWR.
Sahboun, N. F.; 松本 俊慶; 岩澤 譲; Wang, Z.; 杉山 智之
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 195, p.110145_1 - 110145_12, 2024/01
被引用回数：0 パーセンタイル：0.01(Nuclear Science & Technology)Relocated corium into the Primary Containment Vessel needs to be properly cooled to avoid or mitigate molten core concrete interactions in the PCV in order to maintain its supporting capability for the reactor pressure vessel and to suppress combustible or non-condensable gas releases. To know how effective the cooling is, it became important to know the geometry of the relocated corium. The present study chooses to focus on the "Wet Cavity" strategy and to build a reliable tool to evaluate the corium coolability in such a case. To achieve this goal, a previously developed formulation built to predict the corium geometry under the "Dry Cavity" strategy was extended to the conditions used in the "Wet Cavity" strategy. This extension includes the effect of solidification and cooling from the water by using a newly developed expression for the dimensionless thickness s, the water subcooling, and the melts super heat. After the validation of the extended formulation was confirmed, potential restrictions and limitations were investigated.
久保 光太郎; Zheng, X.; 田中 洋一; 玉置 等史; 杉山 智之; Jang, S.*; 高田 孝*; 山口 彰*
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 237(5), p.947 - 957, 2023/10
被引用回数：4 パーセンタイル：69.72(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)確率論的リスク評価(Probabilistic Risk Assessment: PRA)は、大規模かつ複雑なシステムのリスクを評価するために用いられる手法である。しかし、従来のイベントツリーやフォールトツリーを用いたPRAでは、原子力発電所の構造物、系統及び機器が損傷するタイミングを考慮することは困難である。そこで、この課題を解決するために、RAPID(Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics)を用いて、熱水力解析と外部事象のシミュレーションを組み合わせた手法を提案した。加圧水型原子炉のタービン建屋内での内部溢水を表現するために、ベルヌーイの定理に基づいた溢水伝播モデルを適用した。加えて、溢水源の流量や緩和システムの故障基準などの不確実さを考慮した。シミュレーションでは、運転員がいくつか簡略化を行うことにより、運転員による溢水源の隔離操作と排水ポンプを用いた回復操作をモデル化した。その結果、隔離と排水を組み合わせることで、溢水発生時の条件付炉心損傷確率を約90%低減できることが示された。
岩澤 譲; 杉山 智之; 金子 暁子*
Nuclear Engineering and Design, 409, p.112348_1 - 112348_15, 2023/08
被引用回数：0 パーセンタイル：0.01(Nuclear Science & Technology)The agglomeration can form the massive debris (so-called agglomerated debris) by merging of melt particles with others when the particles accumulate on the floor of a containment vessel after relocation of the molten core (so-called corium or melt) in severe accidents in a light water reactor. This paper presents a modification of the simple correlation to estimate the mass fraction of the agglomerated debris proposed by the previous study [Iwasawa et al., Nucl. Eng. Des., 386 (2022), 111575] based on the experiments of melt jet-breakup using a metallic melt. The methodology is required to estimate the mass fraction of the agglomerated debris in the reactor conditions because the agglomerated debris can have a serious impact on the debris bed coolability. The present study focused the effects of the melt jet injection conditions (nozzle diameter and inlet velocity) on the mass fraction of agglomerated debris to add the experimental data base for the previous study that focused only the effects of the melt temperature, coolant temperature, and coolant depth on the mass fraction of the agglomerated debris. The visualized observation using a high-speed camera and morphological investigation of the recovered debris revealed the effects of the nozzle diameter and inlet velocity on the mass fraction of agglomerated debris. The extrapolation of the modified simple correlation showed the mass fraction of the agglomerated debris in the anticipated reactor conditions.
丸山 結; 杉山 智之*; 島田 亜佐子; Lind, T.*; Bentaib, A.*; Sogalla, M.*; Pellegrini, M.*; Albright, L.*; Clayton, D.*
Proceedings of 20th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-20) (Internet), p.4782 - 4795, 2023/08
The Analysis of Information from Reactor Buildings and Containment Vessels of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) (ARC-F) project was initiated in January 2019 for three years with 22 signatories from 12 countries. Three main tasks were implemented in the ARC-F project, which were relevant to 1) refinement of analysis for accident scenarios and associated fission product (FP) transport and dispersion, 2) compilation and management of data and information, and 3) discussion for the next-phase project. Various activities were performed in Task 1, covering improvement of analysis for accident scenarios, and in-depth analyses for specific phenomena such as in-vessel melt progression, molten core/concrete interaction, FP transport and source term, hydrogen combustion and atmospheric dispersion of FPs. Through these studies, analyses for accident scenarios with severe accident codes were refined and important phenomena with large uncertainties were clarified. In order to share well selected and organized information from the FDNPS with the project partners, two databases, information source database and sample database, were built under Task 2. The analysis techniques including the separation of iodine species were developed also in Task 2 and applied to the analysis of FPs in several samples taken from the FDNPS. The next-phase project was discussed in Task 3, resulting in launching the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Information Collection and Evaluation (FACE) project. The FACE project officially started in July 2022 with the participation of 23 organizations from 12 countries and the European Commission.
南上 光太郎; 塩津 弘之; 丸山 結; 杉山 智之; 岡本 孝司*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(7), p.816 - 823, 2023/07
被引用回数：0 パーセンタイル：0.01(Nuclear Science & Technology)For proper source term evaluation, we constructed the theoretical model to estimate the mass transfer coefficient of gaseous iodine species under two-phase flow conditions, which complicates the direct experimental measurements. The mass transfer speed is determined by the product of the overall mass transfer coefficient and the interfacial area. By using the ratio of two gas components, the interfacial area, which is an important parameter that is difficult to measure, can be canceled out and the ratio of their overall mass transfer coefficients can be obtained. This ratio is expected to be equal to the ratio of their diffusion coefficients. Therefore, the unknown mass transfer coefficient such as iodine species can be estimated using the diffusion coefficients of two gas components and the reference mass transfer coefficient such as O
. We carried out the experiments using the bubble column to confirm this relationship. From the results in this study, we confirmed that the ratio of the overall mass transfer coefficient was in good agreement with the ratio of diffusion coefficient under the bubbly flow conditions. Using this relationship confirmed in this study, we estimated the mass transfer coefficient of I, one of the iodine species.
松本 俊慶; 川部 隆平*; 岩澤 譲; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 178, p.109348_1 - 109348_13, 2022/12
被引用回数：0 パーセンタイル：0.01(Nuclear Science & Technology)シビアアクシデント時の溶融物関連事象を評価するためにFCIコードであるJASMINEの機能拡張を行った。溶融物の冷却性評価ではキャビティ床面上における粒子状・アグロメレーション・ケーキ状デブリ質量割合や最終的な幾何形状の予測が必要である。アグロメレーションモデルでは、熱を保有した粒子同士のくっつきを考慮し、組み込んだ。もう一つのモデル改良は拡がりモデルの改良である。浅水方程式を導入し、拡がり先端部のクラスト成長に基づく拡がり停止条件を組み込んだ。調整係数の最適化のためにスウェーデンKTHにおいて実施されたDEFOR-A及びPULiMS実験を参照した。JASMINEコードによる実験解析では共通のパラメータセットで良い再現性が得られ、主要な現象は適切にモデル化されたことを示した。
Wang, Z.; 杉山 智之
Engineering Analysis with Boundary Elements, 144, p.279 - 300, 2022/11
被引用回数：3 パーセンタイル：64.11(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)Numerical simulation of gas bubbles rising in liquid is challenging due to high density and viscosity ratios. This study proposes to separately model the liquid and gas phases by the incompressible Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method and the Weakly Compressible MPS (WCMPS) method. The liquid-gas phase interface is explicitly represented by a series of discrete nodes. By adequately enforcing the stress balance equation on these moving interface nodes, the MPS and WCMPS methods are coupled. Rather than being treated as the volume force, the surface tension is considered as a pressure jump at the interface. Without applying any smoothing or averaging scheme, the density, viscosity and pressure are discontinuous across the interface. The axisymmetric formulation is directly introduced based on the least squares scheme to save computational cost. In addition, a multi-time step algorithm is proposed so that independent time increments can be adopted for different phases. Furthermore, the particle shifting technique is extended to control the multi-spatial resolution dynamically and maintain the particle distribution quasi-isotropic. Several numerical tests, including hydrostatic pressure problems, droplet deformation and bubble rising benchmark are conducted to show the accuracy, efficiency and stability. Finally, validations are performed using experimental results with wide ranges of Reynolds number and Bond number, which dominate the bubble shape.
南上 光太郎; 石川 淳; 杉山 智之; Pellegrini, M.*; 岡本 孝司*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(11), p.1407 - 1416, 2022/11
被引用回数：7 パーセンタイル：88.9(Nuclear Science & Technology)To appropriately evaluate the amount of radioactive iodine released into the environment, we extended the current pool scrubbing model to consider revolatilization at bubble surfaces due to bubbly flow generated in the suppression pool, and the effect of revolatilization by bubbly flow was quantitatively evaluated using a station black out sequence in this work. Gaseous iodine species are produced in the suppression pool in an accident. They are gradually released from the pool surface, but when a large amount of gas flows from the drywell into the suppression pool, the revolatilization of gaseous iodine dissolved in the pool water is promoted by bubbly flow. The results of this study indicated that the release amount of iodine immediately after suppression chamber (S/C) vent operation increased by up to 134 times when considering the revolatilization effect associated with bubbly flow. These results were due to the increase in the gas-liquid interfacial area at bubble surfaces and the overall mass transfer coefficients under two-phase flow conditions due to bubbly flow. It was shown that caution is required for early S/C vent operation.
Wang, Z.; 杉山 智之; 松永 拓也*; 越塚 誠一*
Computers & Fluids, 247, p.105646_1 - 105646_21, 2022/10
被引用回数：1 パーセンタイル：20.8(Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications)This paper develops a highly accurate, multi-resolution particle method to simulate solid-liquid phase change coupled with the thermal flow. Instead of including the latent heat in the governing equation, the heat equations for solid and liquid phases are solved separately. A sharp interface model is proposed to represent the solid-liquid interface explicitly. The sharp interface, represented by discrete nodes, provides the Neumann boundary condition for pressure and the Dirichlet boundary condition for velocity/temperature, respectively. Based on temperature gradients in the solid and liquid phases, the positions of these interface nodes are updated every time step. The Eulerian-based formulation, rather than the conventional Lagrangian-based one, is utilized to minimize time step-dependent error. Up to 4th order spatial discretization scheme is adopted based on the Least Square Moving Particle Semi-implicit (LSMPS) scheme. Moreover, a geometry-based multi-resolution scheme is introduced to dynamically refine the spatial resolution near the interface for saving computational cost. The 1-D Stefan problem is firstly simulated to verify the accuracy of the proposed sharp interface model. Then, the consistency of the multi-resolution scheme is investigated by a convergence study of the Taylor-Green vortex problem. After that, numerical simulations of natural convection in a cavity are performed with different spatial resolutions and high order schemes. Resulted computational costs are compared and discussed. Finally, the problems of melting by natural convection with different Rayleigh numbers are investigated. The results achieved so far indicate that the multi-resolution and high order schemes have great potential to save computational cost.
Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 高原 省五; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM16) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2022/09
Uncertainty gives rise to the risk. For nuclear power plants, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) systematically concludes what people know to estimate the uncertainty in the form of, for example, risk triplet. Capable of developing a definite risk profile for decision-making under uncertainty, dynamic PRA widely applies explicit modeling techniques such as simulation to scenario generation as well as the estimation of likelihood/probability and consequences. When quantifying risk, however, epistemic uncertainties exist in both PRA and dynamic PRA, as a result of the lack of knowledge and model simplification. The paper aims to propose a practical approach for the treatment of uncertainty associated with dynamic PRA. The main idea is to perform the uncertainty analysis by using a two-stage nested Monte Carlo method, and to alleviate the computational burden of the nested Monte Carlo simulation, multi-fidelity models are introduced to the dynamic PRA. Multi-fidelity models include a mechanistic severe accident code MELCOR2.2 and machine learning models. A simplified station blackout (SBO) scenario was chosen as an example to show practicability of the proposed approach. As a result, while successfully calculating the probability of large early release, the analysis is also capable to provide uncertainty information in the form probability distributions. The approach can be expected to clarify questions such as how reliable are results of dynamic PRA.
Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 223, p.108503_1 - 108503_12, 2022/07
被引用回数：16 パーセンタイル：91.89(Engineering, Industrial)Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) more explicitly treats timing issues and stochastic elements of risk models. It extensively resorts to iterative simulations of accident progressions for the quantification of risk triplets including accident scenarios, probabilities and consequences. Dynamic PRA leverages the level of detail for risk modeling while intricately increases computational complexities, which result in heavy computational cost. This paper proposes to apply multi-fidelity simulations for a cost- effective dynamic PRA. It applies and improves the multi-fidelity importance sampling (MFIS) algorithm to generate cost-effective samples of nuclear reactor accident sequences. Sampled accident sequences are paralleled simulated by using mechanistic codes, which is treated as a high-fidelity model. Adaptively trained by using the high-fidelity data, low-fidelity model is used to predicting simulation results. Interested predictions with reactor core damages are sorted out to build the density function of the biased distribution for importance sampling. After when collect enough number of high-fidelity data, risk triplets can be estimated. By solving a demonstration problem and a practical PRA problem by using MELCOR 2.2, the approach has been proven to be effective for risk assessment. Comparing with previous studies, the proposed multi-fidelity approach provides comparative estimation of risk triplets, while significantly reduces computational cost.
Wang, Z.; 杉山 智之
Engineering Analysis with Boundary Elements, 135, p.266 - 283, 2022/02
被引用回数：4 パーセンタイル：53.63(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)The moving particle semi-implicit (MPS) method has great potential in dealing with free surface flow due to its Lagrangian nature. In most cases, the free surface boundary is simply served as the pressure boundary condition. In this paper, an improved MPS method is presented for thermocapillary driven free surface flow. A series of surface nodes explicitly represent the free surface boundary. The normal stress on the free surface provides the Dirichlet pressure boundary condition, while the velocity boundary condition, i.e., Marangoni stress, is enforced through the Taylor series expansion and least squares method. Meanwhile, a quasi-Lagrangian formulation is introduced to avoid particle clustering and the corresponding numerical instability by slightly modifying the advection velocity. The upwind scheme is employed for the convection term to obtain accurate and stable results. A novel constraint scheme with the divergence of provisional velocity is developed for the pressure gradient to enhance stability further. The consistency of the derived generalized boundary condition is firstly verified with a simple convergence test. Then, several numerical tests, including square patch rotation, lid-driven and square droplet oscillation, are simulated to show the improvements. Finally, thermocapillary driven flows in an open cavity without and with buoyancy effect are studied. Good agreements are obtained by comparing with reference simulations taken from literature. Heat transfer characteristics are further investigated for different dimensionless numbers, including the Rayleigh number and Marangoni number.
島田 亜佐子; 谷口 良徳; 垣内 一雄; 大平 早希; 飯田 芳久; 杉山 智之; 天谷 政樹; 丸山 結
Scientific Reports (Internet), 12(1), p.2086_1 - 2086_11, 2022/02
被引用回数：1 パーセンタイル：31.61(Multidisciplinary Sciences)2011年3月12日に福島第一原子力発電所の1号機のベントが行われ、1・2号機共用スタックから放射性ガスが放出された。本研究ではこのベントにより放出された放射性核種の情報を有していると考えられる、1・2号機共用スタック基部のドレンピットから採取したドレン水の放射化学分析を実施した。揮発性の
Iや
Cs, 
Csだけでなく、
Co, 
Sr, 
Sb, 1号機由来安定Moが検出された。1号機由来安定Moの量はCsの量よりもはるかに少ないことから、事故時の炉内状況ではCsMoO
の生成は抑制されたと考えられる。また、2020年10月時点では、約90%のIがI
、約10%がIO
で存在した。Csより多いIが観測されたことから、事故時に
IはCsIというよりも分子状のヨウ素として放出されたことが示唆された。2011年3月11日に減衰補正したCs/Cs放射能比は0.86で、2号機や3号機由来と考えられる放射能比より低いことが示された。
岩澤 譲; 杉山 智之; 阿部 豊*
Nuclear Engineering and Design, 386, p.111575_1 - 111575_17, 2022/01
被引用回数：3 パーセンタイル：53.91(Nuclear Science & Technology)In severe accidents in a light water reactor, the relocated molten core (so-called corium or melt) can form a debris bed. The debris bed coolability is a critical issue for prevention and mitigation of the molten core-concrete interactions. Agglomeration has a serious impact on assessment of debris bed coolability if agglomeration forms massive debris (so-called agglomerated debris) by merging of melt particles with others when the melt particles accumulate on a floor. This paper presents the results of melt jet-breakup experiments for agglomerated debris formation using a simulant metallic melt. The experiments injected a melt jet of a low-melting point metal through a circular nozzle into a test section filled with coolant water. The particles were generated due to the melt jet-breakup accumulated on to a catcher, which is a flat plate made of stainless steel, installed in the test section. A high-speed video camera imaged particle formation and accumulation on the catcher plate. Agglomerated debris was confirmed by morphological investigation of the recovered debris. The experimental results revealed the effects of the melt jet injection conditions (melt temperature, coolant temperature, and coolant depth) on the mass fraction of agglomerated debris. On the basis of the experimental results, we proposed a simple correlation to estimate the mass fraction. The simple correlation successfully reproduced the mass fraction of agglomerated debris obtained in the DEFOR-A test [Kudinov et al., Nucl. Eng. Des., 301 (2013), 284-295]. The experimental data base presented in this paper makes further contributions to the modeling and validation of mechanistic models or simulation tools for agglomerated debris formation.
塩津 弘之; 伊藤 裕人*; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 163, p.108587_1 - 108587_9, 2021/12
被引用回数：0 パーセンタイル：0.01(Nuclear Science & Technology)In the late phase of severe accident in light water reactor nuclear power station, re-mobilization of fission products (FPs) has a significant impact on the source term because most portion of FPs is retained in reactor coolant system and/or containment vessel. Recently, VERDON-2 experiment showed noticeable re-vaporization, which was one of the re-mobilization phenomena, of iodine under air ingress condition, but this mechanism has not been identified yet. The present study numerically investigated the FPs behaviors in VERDON-2 experiment with the mechanistic FPs transport analysis code incorporating thermodynamic chemical equilibrium model in order to further understand nature for FPs behavior, especially iodine re-vaporization under air ingress condition. Consequently, this analysis reproduced the deposition profile of cesium, one of important FPs in the source term, along the thermal gradient tube (TGT) in the experiment, which revealed that cesium was transported as CsOH in early phase of FP release from fuel, and then formed CsMoO and CsTe after the release of molybdenum and tellurium was activated. Regarding iodine as another important FP, formation of CsI was predicted in steam condition. The CsI was transported and partly deposited and condensed onto the TGTs and other components of the VERDON facility. Under the air ingress condition, the present analysis showed the agreement for iodine re-vaporization in the experiment and revealed its mechanism; the deposits of iodide were chemical re-vaporized as molecular iodine (I) gas by redox reaction with competitive elements such as molybdenum, chromium and tellurium.
Sahboun, N. F.; 松本 俊慶; 岩澤 譲; 杉山 智之
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 15 Pages, 2021/10
The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station triggered reevaluation and necessary enhancement of the accident countermeasures and safety regulations worldwide. Such actions are based on the present knowledge and evaluation techniques of the important phenomena anticipated to occur in a severe accident. The present study focused on the under-water melt spreading behavior and aimed at a formulation to predict the final geometry of the solidified melt on the floor of the containment vessel. The formulation, based on the author's previous study of the dry spreading of molten metal, considers the thermal and fluid properties of the melt, so the gap between the core and simulant materials could be filled by using adequate properties. In addition, the formulation was extended to the wet condition by considering the film boiling heat transfer at the upper side of the spreading melt. The improved formula was applied to the PULiMS experiments conducted by the Swedish Royal Institute of Technology with a simulant oxide material under wet conditions. The predicted final spreading area and thickness were in agreement with the experimental results within a twenty percent error.
松本 俊慶; 岩澤 譲; 杉山 智之
Proceedings of Reactor core and Containment Cooling Systems, Long-term management and reliability (RCCS 2021) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2021/10
本研究ではBWRのシビアアクシデント(SA)時のウェットキャビティ戦略(事前注水方策)の下での格納容器内デブリ冷却性を評価するための方法論的枠組みを開発している。この評価手法を実証するために、戦略下での格納容器内デブリの冷却成功確率を解析した。炉心溶融進展に関連する5つのパラメータの不確実さを考慮したMELCORコードによる多ケース解析によりRPVから放出される溶融物条件の確率分布を取得した。パラメータセットは、ラテン超方格サンプリング(LHS)によって生成した。JASMINEコードにより水中及び床面上の溶融物の挙動を予測し、アグロメレーション(凝集)及びメルトプールの質量を予測した。JASMINEコード解析のための59個の入力パラメータセットは、MELCOR解析の結果から決定した溶融物条件の確率分布を用いて、再度LHSにより生成した。複数のキャビティ内初期水プール深さ条件でJASMINE解析を行い、堆積デブリ高さをMCCI発生の判定基準値と比較した。判定結果を集計することで溶融物の冷却成功確率を求めた。
三原 武; 宇田川 豊; 杉山 智之; 天谷 政樹
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 58(8), p.872 - 885, 2021/08
被引用回数：2 パーセンタイル：16.35(Nuclear Science & Technology)To evaluate the effects of the hydride morphology and initial temperature of fuel cladding on the pellet-cladding mechanical interaction failure under reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) conditions, RIA-simulated experiments were performed on high-burnup fuels with stress-relieved annealed (SR) and recrystallized (RX) M-MDA
cladding at room and high (
280
C) temperatures. The results demonstrated that the failure-limit trend of RX-cladded fuels being lower than that of SR-cladded fuels for a similar hydrogen content holds up to at least about 700 wtppm. The observation of the fracture surfaces of failed RX cladding suggests a contribution of radially-oriented hydrides to the crack formation and/or penetration, which coincides with the aforementioned failure-limit trend. The temperature effect, namely the failure-limit rise at a high temperature, is evident irrespective of the hydride morphology, while the degree of the temperature effect decreases as the hydrogen content increases.
久保 光太郎; Zheng, X.; 田中 洋一; 玉置 等史; 杉山 智之; Jang, S.*; 高田 孝*; 山口 彰*
Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2279 - 2286, 2020/11
確率論的リスク評価(PRA)は巨大かつ複雑なシステムをリスクを評価する手法の1つである。従来のPRA手法を用いて外部事象のリスクを評価する場合、構造物、系統及び機器の機能喪失時刻の取扱いが困難である。この解決策として、熱水力解析と外部事象評価シミュレーションをRAPID (Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics)コードを用いて結合した。外部事象としてPWRプラントにおけるタービン建屋内での内部溢水を選定し、溢水進展評価にはベルヌーイ則に式を用いた。また、溢水源の流量及び緩和設備の没水基準に関する不確実さを考慮した。回復操作については、運転員による溢水源の隔離とポンプによる排水を仮定とともにモデル化した。結果として、隔離操作が排水と組み合わせることによりより有効になることが示された。
