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Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 223, p.108503_1 - 108503_12, 2022/07
Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) more explicitly treats timing issues and stochastic elements of risk models. It extensively resorts to iterative simulations of accident progressions for the quantification of risk triplets including accident scenarios, probabilities and consequences. Dynamic PRA leverages the level of detail for risk modeling while intricately increases computational complexities, which result in heavy computational cost. This paper proposes to apply multi-fidelity simulations for a cost- effective dynamic PRA. It applies and improves the multi-fidelity importance sampling (MFIS) algorithm to generate cost-effective samples of nuclear reactor accident sequences. Sampled accident sequences are paralleled simulated by using mechanistic codes, which is treated as a high-fidelity model. Adaptively trained by using the high-fidelity data, low-fidelity model is used to predicting simulation results. Interested predictions with reactor core damages are sorted out to build the density function of the biased distribution for importance sampling. After when collect enough number of high-fidelity data, risk triplets can be estimated. By solving a demonstration problem and a practical PRA problem by using MELCOR 2.2, the approach has been proven to be effective for risk assessment. Comparing with previous studies, the proposed multi-fidelity approach provides comparative estimation of risk triplets, while significantly reduces computational cost.
Brumm, S.*; Gabrielli, F.*; Sanchez-Espinoza, V.*; Groudev, P.*; Ou, P.*; Zhang, W.*; Malkhasyan, A.*; Bocanegra, R.*; Herranz, L. E.*; Berda
, M.*; et al.
Proceedings of 10th European Review Meeting on Severe Accident Research (ERMSAR 2022) (Internet), 13 Pages, 2022/05
The current HORIZON-2020 project on "Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA)" aims at applying Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in the modeling of Severe Accidents (SA), particularly in predicting the radiological source term of mitigated and unmitigated accident scenarios. Within its application part, the project is devoted to the uncertainty quantification of different severe accident codes when predicting the radiological source term of selected severe accident sequences of different nuclear power plant designs, e.g. PWR, VVER, and BWR. Key steps for this investigation are, (a) the selection of severe accident sequences for each reactor design, (b) the development of a reference input model for the specific design and SA-code, (c) the selection of a list of uncertain model parameters to be investigated, (d) the choice of an UQ-tool e.g. DAKOTA, SUSA, URANIE, etc., (e) the definition of the figures of merit for the UA-analysis, (f) the performance of the simulations with the SA-codes, and, (g) the statistical evaluation of the results using the capabilities, i.e. methods and tools offered by the UQ-tools. This paper describes the project status of the UQ of different SA codes for the selected SA sequences, and the technical challenges and lessons learnt from the preparatory and exploratory investigations performed.
久保 光太郎; Zheng, X.; 田中 洋一; 玉置 等史; 杉山 智之; Jang, S.*; 高田 孝*; 山口 彰*
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 11 Pages, 2022/04
確率論的リスク評価(Probabilistic Risk Assessment: PRA)は、大規模かつ複雑なシステムのリスクを評価するために用いられる手法である。しかし、従来のイベントツリーやフォールトツリーを用いたPRAでは、原子力発電所の構造物、系統及び機器が損傷するタイミングを考慮することは困難である。そこで、この課題を解決するために、RAPID(Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics)を用いて、熱水力解析と外部事象のシミュレーションを組み合わせた手法を提案した。加圧水型原子炉のタービン建屋内での内部溢水を表現するために、ベルヌーイの定理に基づいた溢水伝播モデルを適用した。加えて、溢水源の流量や緩和システムの故障基準などの不確実さを考慮した。シミュレーションでは、運転員がいくつか簡略化を行うことにより、運転員による溢水源の隔離操作と排水ポンプを用いた回復操作をモデル化した。その結果、隔離と排水を組み合わせることで、溢水発生時の条件付炉心損傷確率を約90%低減できることが示された。
Wang, X.*; Tang, X.*; Zhang, P.*; Wang, Y.*; Gao, D.*; Liu, J.*; Hui, K.*; Wang, Y.*; Dong, X.*; 服部 高典; et al.
Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters (Internet), 12(50), p.12055 - 12061, 2021/12
置換ポリアセチレンは、ポリアセチレン骨格の化学的安定性,物性,付加機能の向上が期待されるが、その多様性は非常に限られている。今回我々は、固体のアセチレンジカルボン酸に外圧を加えることにより、従来の方法では合成が非常に困難であったトランス-ポリアセチレン骨格上のすべての炭素がカルボキシル基に結合した結晶性のポリ-ジカルボキシルアセチレンができることを報告する。重合は、水素結合を利用したトポケミカル反応であった。このユニークな構造は、カルボニル基の極めて高い含有量とポリアセチレン骨格の高い導電性を組み合わせたもので、リチウムイオン電池(LIB)負極として高い比容量と優れたサイクル/レート性能を示す。我々は、完全に機能化された結晶性ポリアセチレンを紹介し、高分子LIB材料や活性基を多く含む高分子材料合成のために圧力重合が有力な方法であることを提案する。
Gao, D.*; Tang, X.*; Wang, X.*; Yang, X.*; Zhang, P.*; Che, G.*; Han, J.*; 服部 高典; Wang, Y.*; Dong, X.*; et al.
Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics, 23(35), p.19503 - 19510, 2021/09
被引用回数：0 パーセンタイル：0.01(Chemistry, Physical)窒素に富む分子の圧力有機相転移や重合は、環境にやさしい高エネルギー密度材料の開発にとって非常に重要であるため、広く注目されている。本論文では、その場ラマン,IR,X線回折,中性子回折、および理論計算をもちい、100GPaまでの1H-テトラゾールの相転移挙動と化学反応の研究を紹介する。2.6GPa以上での相転移が確認され、その高圧構造は、以前に報告されたユニットセル内に2つの分子をもつものではなく、1つの分子をものであることが分かった。1H-テトラゾールは、おそらく窒素-窒素結合ではなく炭素-窒素結合により、100GPa以下で可逆的に重合する。私たちの研究は、1H-テトラゾールの高圧相の構造モデルを更新し、もっともらしい分子間結合の経路を初めて提示した。これにより、窒素に富む化合物の相転移と化学反応の理解が進み、新しい高エネルギー密度材料の設計に役立つと考えられる。
Wang, Y.*; Jia, G.*; Cui, X.*; Zhao, X.*; Zhang, Q.*; Gu, L.*; Zheng, L.*; Li, L. H.*; Wu, Q.*; Singh, D. J.*; et al.
Chem, 7(2), p.436 - 449, 2021/02
被引用回数：13 パーセンタイル：99.48(Chemistry, Multidisciplinary)Nanozymes are promising alternatives to natural enzymes, but their use remains limited owing to poor specificity. Overcoming this is extremely challenging due to the intrinsic structural complexity of these systems. We report theoretical design and experimental realization of a series of heterogeneous molybdenum single-atom nanozymes (named Mo
-N
-C), wherein we find that the peroxidase-like specificity is well regulated by the coordination numbers of single Mo sites. The resulting Mo-N
-C catalyst shows exclusive peroxidase-like behavior. It achieves this behavior via a homolytic pathway, whereas Mo-N
-C and Mo-N
-C catalysts have a different heterolytic pathway. The mechanism of this coordination-number-dependent enzymatic specificity is attributed to geometrical structure differences and orientation relationships of the frontier molecular orbitals.
Lai, W.-H.*; Wang, H.*; Zheng, L.*; Jiang, Q.*; Yan, Z.-C.*; Wang, L.*; 吉川 浩史*; 松村 大樹; Sun, Q.*; Wang, Y.-X.*; et al.
Angewandte Chemie; International Edition, 59(49), p.22171 - 22178, 2020/12
被引用回数：16 パーセンタイル：89.25(Chemistry, Multidisciplinary)Herein, we report a comprehensive strategy to synthesize a full range of single-atom metals on carbon matrix, including V, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Ge, Mo, Ru, Rh, Pd, Ag, In, Sn, W, Ir, Pt, Pb, and Bi. The extensive applications of various single-atom catalysts (SACs) are manifested via their ability to electro-catalyze typical hydrogen evolution reactions (HER) and conversion reactions in novel room-temperature sodium sulfur batteries (RT-Na-S). The enhanced performances for these electrochemical reactions arisen from the ability of different single active atoms on local structures to tune their electronic configuration. Significantly, the electrocatalytic behaviors of diverse SACs, assisted by density functional theory calculations, are systematically revealed by in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction and in situ transmission electronic microscopy, providing a strategic library for the general synthesis and extensive applications of SACs in energy conversion and storage.
久保 光太郎; Zheng, X.; 田中 洋一; 玉置 等史; 杉山 智之; Jang, S.*; 高田 孝*; 山口 彰*
Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2279 - 2286, 2020/11
確率論的リスク評価(PRA)は巨大かつ複雑なシステムをリスクを評価する手法の1つである。従来のPRA手法を用いて外部事象のリスクを評価する場合、構造物、系統及び機器の機能喪失時刻の取扱いが困難である。この解決策として、熱水力解析と外部事象評価シミュレーションをRAPID (Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics)コードを用いて結合した。外部事象としてPWRプラントにおけるタービン建屋内での内部溢水を選定し、溢水進展評価にはベルヌーイ則に式を用いた。また、溢水源の流量及び緩和設備の没水基準に関する不確実さを考慮した。回復操作については、運転員による溢水源の隔離とポンプによる排水を仮定とともにモデル化した。結果として、隔離操作が排水と組み合わせることによりより有効になることが示された。
Zheng, X.; Mandelli, D.*; Alfonsi, A.*; Smith, C.*; 杉山 智之
Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2176 - 2183, 2020/11
The paper introduces a simulation-based Level 2 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a multi-unit nuclear power plant. We propose the methodology by quantifying risk for a station-blackout accident scenario, initialized by a loss-of-offsite-power event. Contrary to classical PRA that applies static models such as event-tree/fault-tree, the analysis is seamlessly integrated with mechanistic simulation and PRA models, including: (1) a simplified thermal-hydraulic code for simulating system behaviors; (2) a Markovian model for the failure mechanism of decay-heat-removal systems, to investigate the interaction between mechanistic simulation and reliability analysis; and (3) classical containment event trees for evaluating containment performances and hydrogen-explosion risk under severe accident conditions. All dynamic and static models, including plant dependencies, are unified within the RAVEN computational framework, applying RAVEN components, External Model, Ensemble Model, and PRA Plugins. The study demonstrates an integrated assessment of risks by considering accident progression and inter-unit system interactions, both time dependent. Statistical data analysis is used to quantifying risk metrics, including core damage frequencies, large early release frequencies and plant damage status. The methodology pertains to modern risk-analysis methodologies such as risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) and dynamic PRA.
田中 洋一; 玉置 等史; Zheng, X.; 杉山 智之
Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2195 - 2201, 2020/11
One advantage of dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is that it can take into account the timing and ordering of event occurrences based on more explicit simulation of system dynamics. It is expected that dynamic PRA can lead us into a more realistic risk assessment, overcoming some limitations of conventional PRA. Multiple dynamic PRA tools have been developed worldwide, and applied to risk assessment of large industrial facilities such as nuclear power plants and crewed spacecrafts. Japan Atomic Energy Agency has developed the dynamic PRA tool, RAPID (Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics), considering the interaction between accident simulation and dysfunctional models of safety-related systems. This paper introduces a recent enhancement of RAPID to treat more complicated simulation interactions from the outside of severe accident codes. It is designed to feed back and forth plant information from simulators to the accident sequence generator. It discusses how the enhancement affects the results of risk assessment, with an example analyzing thermal failure of a safety relief valve in a station blackout accident occurred at a boiling water reactor plant.
久保 光太郎; Zheng, X.; 石川 淳; 杉山 智之; Jang, S.*; 高田 孝*; 山口 彰*
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2020/11
動的確率論的リスク評価(PRA)は、従来のPRAよりも現実的で詳細な解析を可能とする。しかし、これらの改善とトレードオフの関係にあるのは、多数の熱水力解析を行うことに伴う膨大な計算コストである。本研究では、機械学習に基づいて、熱水力解析を省略することでこの計算コストを削減することを目指した。機械学習には、サポートベクターマシンを選択し、その構築には高忠実度・高コストの詳細モデルと、低忠実度・低コストの簡易モデルを用いた。その結果、今回仮定した条件においては、精度を大幅に低下させることなく計算コストを約80%削減することができた。
Zhang, P.*; Tang, X.*; Wang, Y.*; Wang, X.*; Gao, D.*; Li, Y.*; Zheng, H.*; Wang, Y.*; Wang, X.*; Fu, R.*; et al.
Journal of the American Chemical Society, 142(41), p.17662 - 17669, 2020/10
被引用回数：6 パーセンタイル：75.63(Chemistry, Multidisciplinary)固体トポケミカル重合(SSTP)は機能的な結晶性高分子材料を合成するための有望な方法であるが、溶液中で起こるさまざまな反応とは対照的に、非常に限られたタイプのSSTP反応しか報告されていない。ディールス・アルダー(DA)および脱水素-DA(DDA)反応は、溶液中で六員環を作るための教科書的反応であるが、固相合成ではほとんど見られない。本研究では、固体の1,4-ジフェニルブタジイン(DPB)を10-20GPaに加圧することで、フェニル基がジエノフィルとして、DDA反応することを複数の最先端の手法を用いて明らかにした。臨界圧力での結晶構造は、この反応が「距離選択的」であることを示している。つまり、フェニルとフェニルエチニル間の距離3.2
は、DDA反応は起こせるが、他のDDAや1,4-付加反応で結合を形成するには長すぎる。回収された試料は結晶性の肘掛け椅子型のグラファイトナノリボンであるため、今回の研究結果は、原子スケールの制御で結晶質炭素材料を合成するための新しい道を開く。
久保 光太郎; Zheng, X.; 田中 洋一; 玉置 等史; 杉山 智之; Jang, S.*; 高田 孝*; 山口 彰*
Proceedings of Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2020 (SNA + MC 2020), p.308 - 315, 2020/10
動的確率論的リスク評価(PRA)PRAは従来のPRA手法の現実性と網羅性を向上させる手法の一つである、しかしながら、それらの向上と引き換えに膨大な計算コストが発生する。本稿では、複数のサンプリング手法を簡易的な事故シーケンスに対する動的PRAに対して適用した。具体的には、モンテカルロ法,ラテン超方格法,格子点サンプリング及び準モンテカルロ法を比較した。その結果、今回の検討の範囲においては、準モンテカルロ法が最も効率的であった。
particles triggered strong interaction with LaFeO framework for total and preferential CO oxidationZheng, Y.*; Xiao, H.*; Li, K.*; Wang, Y.*; Li, Y.*; Wei, Y.*; Zhu, X.*; Li, H.-W.*; 松村 大樹; Guo, B.*; et al.
ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces, 12(37), p.42274 - 42284, 2020/09
被引用回数：4 パーセンタイル：51.8(Nanoscience & Nanotechnology)Interactions between the active components with the support are one of the fundamentally factors in determining the catalytic performance of a catalyst. In this study, we investigated the interaction between CeO and LaFeO, the two important oxygen storage materials in catalysis area, by tuning the sizes of CeO particles and highlight a two-fold effect of the strong oxide-oxide interaction in determining the catalytic activity and selectivity for preferential CO oxidation in hydrogen feeds. It is found that the anchoring of ultra-fine CeO particles at the framework of three-dimensional-ordered macroporous LaFeO surface results in a strong interaction between the two oxides that induces the formation of abundant uncoordinated cations and oxygen vacancy at the interface. This discovery demonstrates that in hybrid oxide-based catalysts, tuning the interaction among different components is essential for balancing the catalytic activity and selectivity.
H - CF cocrystal towards graphane structureWang, Y.*; Dong, X.*; Tang, X.*; Zheng, H.*; Li, K.*; Lin, X.*; Fang, L.*; Sun, G.*; Chen, X.*; Xie, L.*; et al.
Angewandte Chemie; International Edition, 58(5), p.1468 - 1473, 2019/01
被引用回数：18 パーセンタイル：83.78(Chemistry, Multidisciplinary)芳香族の圧力誘起重合反応(PIP)は、sp
炭素骨格を構築するための新しい方法であり、ベンゼンとその誘導体を圧縮することによってダイヤモンド様構造を有するナノスレッドを合成した。ここで、ベンゼン-ヘキサフルオロベンゼン共結晶(CHCF)を圧縮することにより、PIP生成物中に層状構造を有するH-F置換グラフェンを同定した。その場中性子回折から決定された結晶構造およびガスクロマトグラフィー質量スペクトルによって同定された中間生成物に基づいて、20GPaでは、CHCFがベンゼンおよびヘキサフルオロベンゼンを交互に積み重ねた傾斜カラムを形成し、それらが[4+2]重合体に転化し、次いで、短距離秩序を持つ水素化フッ素化グラフェンに変化する。反応プロセスは[4+2]ディールス-アルダー, レトロディールス-アルダー、および1-1'カップリング反応を含み、前者はPIPの重要な反応である。われわれの研究は、CHCFの素反応を初めて確認した。これは、芳香族化合物のPIPについての新しい見方を提供する。
石川 淳; Zheng, X.; 塩津 弘之; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2018 (ASRAM 2018) (USB Flash Drive), 6 Pages, 2018/10
Japan Atomic Energy Agency is pursuing the development and application of the methodologies on fission product (FP) chemistry for source term analysis by using integrated severe accident analysis code THALES2/KICHE. Generally, specific chemical forms of iodine and cesium such as cesium iodide (CsI) and cesium hydroxide (CsOH) were assumed in the source term analysis for light water reactors using an integrated severe accident analysis code. The accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station leads possible chemical effects of BC control materials and atmosphere on chemical speciation of iodine and cesium such as cesium metaborate (CsBO) and hydrogen iodide (HI). The difference of chemical speciation affects not only the FP behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) and transport to containment but also pH value of the suppression pool water in the containment. The pH value is one of the influential factors on the release of gaseous iodine (I and organic iodine) from containment liquid phase. In the present study, the improvement of the THALES2/KICHE code in terms of FP chemistry in RCS was performed and applied to source term analysis for severe accidents at a boil water reactor with Mark-I containment vessel. This paper discusses the chemical speciation of iodine and cesium, and FP behavior and transport to containment.
Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 石川 淳; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Proceedings of 14th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM-14) (USB Flash Drive), 10 Pages, 2018/09
Several types of uncertainties exist during the simulation of a severe accident. These may result from incomplete knowledge about the plant systems, accident progression and oversimplified numerical models. Among them, parameter uncertainty can be treated via Monte-Carlo-sampling-based methods. To tackle the severe accident scenario uncertainty, we must resort to advanced dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods. In this paper, authors reviewed the previous dynamic PRA methods and tools, and then performed a preliminary scenario uncertainty analysis, by using an integrated SA code (THALES2) and a scenario generator (RAPID, risk assessment with plant interactive dynamics), both being developed at JAEA. THALES2 is a fast-running severe accident code for the simulation of severe accident progression and source term in light water reactors. Typical scenarios of station-blackout (SBO)-initiated accidents in boiling water reactors are generated and simulated. The dynamic event tree (DET) method is applied to consider the stochastic uncertainties during the scenario progression. Major groups of SBO sequences with the similar accident characteristics can be found. To provide a reference value for risk, a conditional core damage frequency is calculated accordingly. This is a preliminary analysis for severe accident scenario uncertainty quantification at JAEA, and further DPRA researches are in progress.
Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 塩津 弘之; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2017 (ASRAM 2017) (USB Flash Drive), 11 Pages, 2017/11
Nuclear reactor severe accident simulation involves uncertainties, which may result from incompleteness of modeling of accident scenarios, selection of alternative models and unrealistic setting of parameters during the numerical simulation, etc. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods are required to reach reasonable estimation of risk for severe accidents. Computational codes are widely used for the deterministic accident simulations. Bayesian approaches, including both parametric and nonparametric, are applied to the simulation-based severe accident researches at Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). In the paper, an overview of these research activities is introduced: (1) Dirichlet process models, a nonparametric Bayesian approach, are applied to source term uncertainty and sensitivity analyses; (2) Gaussian process models are applied to the optimization for operations of severe accident countermeasures; (3) Nonparametric models, include models based on Dirichlet process and K-nearest neighbors algorithm, are built to predict the chemical forms of fission products. Simplified models are integrated into the integral severe accident code, THALES2/KICHE; (4) We have also launched the research of dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA), and because a great number of accident scenarios will be generated during DPRA, Bayesian approaches would be useful for the boosting of computational efficiency.
Zheng, X.; 石川 淳; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 49(2), p.434 - 441, 2017/03
被引用回数：2 パーセンタイル：28.88(Nuclear Science & Technology)Containment venting is one of essential measures to protect the integrity of the final barrier of a nuclear reactor during severe accidents, by which the uncontrollable release of fission products can be avoided. The authors seek to develop an optimization approach, from a simulation-based perspective, to the venting operations by using an integrated severe accident code, THALES2/KICHE. The effectiveness of containment venting strategies needs to be verified via numerical simulations based on various settings of venting conditions. The number of iterations, however, needs to be controlled for cumbersome computational burden of integrated codes. Bayesian optimization is an efficient global optimization approach. By using Gaussian process regression, a surrogate model of the "black-box" code is constructed. It can be updated simultaneously whenever new simulation results are acquired. With predictions via the surrogate model, upcoming locations of the most probable optimum can be revealed. The sampling procedure is adaptive. The number of code queries is largely reduced for the optimum finding, compared with pure random searches. One typical severe accident scenario of a boiling water reactor is chosen as an example. The research demonstrates the applicability of the Bayesian optimization approach to the design and establishment of containment-venting strategies during severe accidents.
Zheng, X.; 石川 淳; 杉山 智之; 丸山 結
Proceedings of 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM-13) (USB Flash Drive), 10 Pages, 2016/10
Containment venting is one of essential measures to protect the integrity of the final barrier of a nuclear reactor, by which the uncontrollable release of fission products can be avoided. The authors seek to develop an optimization approach to the planning of containment-venting operations by using THALES2/KICHE. Factors that control the activation of the venting system, for example, containment pressure, amount of fission products within the containment and pH value in the suppression chamber water pool, will affect radiological consequences. The effectiveness of containment venting strategies needs to be confirmed through numerical simulations. The number of iterations, however, needs to be controlled for cumbersome computational burden of severe accident codes. Bayesian optimization is a computationally efficient global optimization approach to find desired solutions. With the use of Gaussian process regression, a surrogate model of the "black-box" code is constructed. According to the predictions through the surrogate model, the upcoming location of the most probable optimum can be revealed. The number of code queries is largely reduced for the optimum finding, compared with simpler methods such as pure random search. The research demonstrates the applicability of the Bayesian optimization approach to the design and establishment of containment-venting strategies under BWR severe accident conditions.
