Development of importance measures reflecting the risk triplet in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; A Case study using MELCOR and RAPID

Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結; 高田 毅士; 成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*

Journal of Nuclear Engineering (Internet), 6(3), p.21_1 - 21_18, 2025/06

https://doi.org/10.3390/jne6030021

While traditional risk importance measures (RIMs) in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are effective for ranking safety-significant components, they often overlook critical aspects such as the timing of accident progression and consequences. Dynamic PRA offers a framework to quantify such risk information, but standardized approaches for estimating RIMs remain underdeveloped. This study addresses this gap by: (1) reviewing traditional RIMs and their regulatory applications, highlighting their limitations, while introducing newly proposed risk-triplet-based RIMs, consisting of timing-based worth (TBW), frequency-based worth (FBW), and consequence-based worth (CBW); (2) conducting a case study of Level 2 dynamic PRA using the JAEA's RAPID tool coupled with the severe accident code of MELCOR 2.2 to simulate a station blackout scenario in a boiling water reactor, generating probabilistically sampled sequences with quantified timing, frequency, and consequence of source term release; (3) demonstrating that TBW, FBW, and CBW provide differentiated insights into risk significance, enabling multidimensional prioritization of systems and mitigation strategies, for example, TBW quantifies the delay effect of mitigation systems and CBW evaluates consequence-mitigating potential. The study underscores the potential of dynamic PRA and risk-triplet-based RIMs to support risk-informed and performance-based regulatory decision-making, particularly in contexts where the timing and severity of accident consequences are critical.

Effects of different accident scenarios and sites on the reduction factor used for expressing sheltering effectiveness

廣内 淳; 渡邊 正敏*; 林 奈穂; 長久保 梓; 高原 省五

Journal of Radiological Protection, 45(1), p.011506_1 - 011506_11, 2025/03

https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6498/adba6e

原子力発電所事故によって汚染された地域に住む公衆は、初期から長期にわたって被ばくする。同じような事故シナリオであっても、放射線量や防護措置の一つである屋内退避の効果は、気象条件や周辺環境に左右される。原子力発電所事故の初期における放射線量と屋内退避の効果は、公衆だけでなく、原子力防災対策を計画する国や地方自治体にとっても重要な情報である。本研究では、レベル3PRAコードの一つであるOSCAARコードを用いて、過去のシビアアクシデント研究で利用された3つのシナリオ、原子力規制委員会が定めたシナリオ、福島第一原子力発電所事故に対応するシナリオの計5つの事故シナリオについて、日本国内の原子力施設を有するサイトにおける放射線量と屋内退避の効果を評価した。屋内退避の効果は、同一サイトにおける事故シナリオ間で最大約50%、同一事故シナリオのサイト間で約20%50%の差があった。事故シナリオ間の放射性核種組成の違いと、サイト間の風速の違いが、主にこのような屋内退避の効果の違いを引き起こした。

Development of risk importance measures for dynamic PRA based on risk triplet, 2; Trial measurement of risk importance through dynamic level 2 PRA with RAPID

Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結; 高田 毅士; 成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management & Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management (PSAM17 & ASRAM2024) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2024/10

Traditional frequency-based risk importance measures (RIMs) have demonstrated its practicability in the nuclear regulation. The authors investigate the definitions of existing RIMs and associated applications in risk-informed nuclear regulations, for instance, the risk-informed categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs), risk-informed changes to technical specifications, etc. However, when evaluating mitigation effects of accident countermeasures, importance assessments involving consequence and timing has the potential of providing valuable information for decision making. By widely using numerical simulations of possible accident progressions, dynamic PRA enables a straightforward assessment of risk triplets. Recent advancements in the development of dynamic PRA tend to explicitly incorporate the dynamics of accident progression and failure events into risk assessment, and it allows a provision of more detailed risk information. The approach to appropriate estimation of risk importance within this framework has not been established, exposing a significant research challenge in the use of risk information for decision making in the nuclear industry. Possible accident sequences are sampled using RAPID by randomly branching, and risk triplets are quantified, including key quantities such as source term release amount and release timing to the environment, and the associated frequencies. Risk triplets are used to calculate the new RIMs to rank the importance of pivotal headings in the event tree model. As the exemplary results of the analysis, source term release amount and timing are largely influenced by the mode of containment failure and the termination timing of reactor coolant injection. As the conclusion, when issues such as timing or seriousness of consequence are important for judgement, dynamic PRA and the new RIMs is capable of supporting decision making by providing more detailed risk information.

Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology using artificial intelligence technology, 3; Automatic fault tree creation tools for failure mode level fault tree

二神 敏; 近藤 佑樹; 山野 秀将; 栗坂 健一

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management & Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management (PSAM17 & ASRAM2024) (Internet), 9 Pages, 2024/10

This study is intended to develop PRA methodology using the AI technology. The authors have been conducting a three year program including the development of AI tools for automatic FT creation. This AI tools are intended to enable any users to easily perform PRA with the same quality less depending on user's PRA skill. This paper describes updates of the AI tools for automatic FT creation, as a second step progress.

Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology using artificial intelligence technology, 1; Automatic fault tree creation

二神 敏; 山野 秀将; 栗坂 健一; 氏田 博士*

Proceedings of PSAM 2023 Topical Conference AI & Risk Analysis for Probabilistic Safety/Security Assessment & Management, 8 Pages, 2023/10

原子力発電所のPRAの効率的・効果的な社会実装を目指したイノベーションを創出するため、AI,デジタル化技術を活用して、運転時のPRAにおけるフォルトツリー(FT)作成、及び信頼性データベース構築に着目してAIツールを開発する。本報では、AIツールの開発計画とFT自動作成ツールの開発状況について報告する。

Key role of temperature on delamination in solid-state additive manufacturing via supersonic impact

Wang, Q.*; Ma, N.*; Huang, W.*; Shi, J.*; Luo, X.-T.*; 冨高 宙*; 諸岡 聡; 渡邊 誠*

Materials Research Letters (Internet), 11(9), p.742 - 748, 2023/09

https://doi.org/10.1080/21663831.2023.2227221

Cold spray (CS) has emerged as a representative of solid-state additive manufacturing (AM) via supersonic impact. It enables a high deposition rate of solid-state microparticles. Delamination, however, tends to occur when depositing too thick; this remains to be conquered. Here, a CS-like process, warm spray (WS), was presented. Interestingly, it was found that the appropriate increase in particle temperature can effectively reduce the residual stress amplitude, relieving the concentrated tensile stress and safeguarding the additively manufactured components from interfacial delamination even when depositing too thick. The key role of temperature on delamination was identified in solid-state AM via supersonic impact.

2022年度夏期休暇実習報告

石塚 悦男; Ho, H. Q.; 北川 堪大*; 福田 理仁*; 伊藤 諒*; 根本 将矢*; 楠木 捷斗*; 野村 拓朗*; 長瀬 颯太*; 橋本 温希*; et al.

JAEA-Technology 2023-013, 19 Pages, 2023/06

JAEA-Technology-2023-013.pdf:1.75MB

「HTTRに関する技術開発」をテーマとした2022年度夏期休暇実習において、5つの大学から8名が参加した。参加者は、原子力電池の検討、HTTR炉心の燃焼解析、Cf製造の検討、冷却機能喪失時の挙動解析、炉容器近傍の熱流動解析について実習した。実習後のアンケートでは、就業体験として有益であったこと、一部の学生においては自身の研究に役立ったこと、他の大学生との議論が良い経験となった等の感想があり、本実習は概ね良好な評価を得た。

Effectiveness evaluation methodology of the measures for improving resilience of nuclear structures at ultra-high temperature

小野田 雄一; 栗坂 健一; 山野 秀将

Proceedings of 30th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE30) (Internet), 7 Pages, 2023/05

本研究の目的は、破損拡大抑制技術を用いた超高温時における原子炉構造物のレジリエンス向上策の有効性評価手法を開発することである。まず、レジリエンスを向上させる可能性のある事故シーケンスを特定するため、日本の次世代ループ型ナトリウム冷却高速炉(SFR)を対象としてレベル1 PRA及びレベル2 PRAのイベントツリーを分析し、その特性を調査した。その結果、候補となる事故シーケンスとして除熱機能喪失事象の事故シーケンスを特定した。LOHRSに至るすべての事故シーケンスについて、レジリエンス向上策の導入前後の炉心損傷頻度の低減率を定量化することでレジリエンス向上策の有効性を評価するという方法論を考案した。次世代ループ型SFRを対象として予備評価を行い考案した方法論の適用性を確認した。これにより有効性評価の方法を開発することに成功した。今後、レジリエンス向上策の条件付成功確率の精緻化を行う予定である。

Relationship between internal stress distribution and microstructure in a suspension-sprayed thermal barrier coating with a columnar structure

山崎 泰広*; 篠宮 啓介*; 奥村 忠晴*; 鈴木 賢治*; 菖蒲 敬久; 中村 唯我*

Quantum Beam Science (Internet), 7(2), p.14_1 - 14_12, 2023/05

https://doi.org/10.3390/qubs7020014

The suspension plasma spray (SPS) technique has attracted attention because of its various microstructures, which can be achieved by mixing submicron spray particles with a solvent to form a suspension. Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) with a columnar structure, which might achieve high strain tolerance, can be obtained using the SPS technique. In this study, the internal stress distribution of the SPS-TBC with different columnar structures was evaluated by hybrid measurement using high-energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction analysis and laboratory low-energy X-rays. The effect of microstructure on the internal stress distribution of the SPS-TBC was discussed on the basis of the experimental results. In addition, the in-plane internal stress was decreased by decreasing the column diameter. The thin columnar microstructure of the SPS-TBC has superior strain tolerance. The internal stresses in the column of the SPS-TBC are periodic decrements caused by stress relaxation in porous layers.

Probabilistic risk assessment for sodium-cooled fast reactors by the CMMC method; Consideration of operator's recognition probability for accident managements

小池 朱里*; 根本 将矢*; 中島 理紗子*; 堺 公明*; 堂田 哲広; 田中 正暁

Proceedings of 2023 International Congress on Advanced in Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP 2023) (Internet), 2 Pages, 2023/04

異常降雪時のナトリウム冷却高速炉のアクシデントマネジメントとして除雪を行った場合に、運転員による異常気象の認知の成否がプラントの安全性に与える影響を評価するため、運転員の認知確率を時間の関数としてモデル化し、プラント状態についての動的PRA解析を実施した。その結果、事象開始後、比較的早い段階での炉心損傷は、運転員の異常降雪の認知により回避されることを示した。