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FBR実用化サイクルの総合評価システムの開発

The development of general assessment system for FBR cycle for practical use

芝 剛史*; 亀崎 洋*; 湯山 智教*; 鈴木 敦士*

Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; Kamezaki, Hiroshi*; Yuyama, Tomonori*; not registered

核燃料サイクル開発機構が行うFBRサイクル実用化調査研究の一環として、FBR実用化サイクルに要求される視点、評価すべき項目(経済性、安全性、など)に対する総合的な比較評価を定量的、かつ客観的に行うためのシステムの開発を行うことを本研究の目的とする。意思決定支援には様々な手法が存在するが、ここでは、各手法の事例を調査してそれぞれの特徴を検討し、階層型分析法(AHP)、多属性効用分析法(MUF)、および足切法を組合せた総合評価手法を構築した。これは、評価項目の多様性や評価プロセスの透明性を有し、さらに、非補償性をも組み込んだものである。評価する視点は、経済性、資源有効利用性、核拡散抵抗性、環境負荷低減、安全性、技術的実現性の6項目とし、各視点の評価項目・評価指標を階層化して評価構造を作成した。各評価指標の効用関数及び一対評価による重み付けを仮設定し、FBRサイクルシステムの候補絞り込みのための予備的な評価を実施した。その結果、本総合評価手法が意思決定支援手法として有効に機能し得ることを確認できた。

This research aims to develop a system in which aspects necessary for FBR cycle and overall comparison of evaluation items (economy, safety etc.) are evaluated quantitatively and objectively as a part of Nuclear Cycle development's research project of the FBR cycle for practical use. There are various methods in the decision-making support. In this particular situation, features of each method were evaluated based on the analysis of cases with each method. Subsequently we constructed overall evaluation method by combining Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multi-attribution Utility Function Method (MUF) and Cut-off Method. This method has variation in evaluation items, transparency in evaluation process and uncompensation. The six aspects of evaluation are economy, effectiveness of resource use, proliferation resistance, environmental effectiveness, safety, and research and development. The evaluation items and the evaluation index of each aspect were hierarchized and the evaluation structure was constructed. In the present study effect function for each evaluation index and pair comparison for examining significance of each item were utilized to select prospective systems for FBR cycle experimentally. The result confirmed reliability of our general assessment system as a decision-making support system for FBR system.

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