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福島第一原子力発電所事故後の汚染地域における外部被ばく線量の決定論的評価手法の開発

Development of deterministic approach to assess doses to the public from external exposures in the areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident

高原 省五; 飯島 正史; 嶋田 和真; 串田 輝雄; 白鳥 芳武

Takahara, Shogo; Iijima, Masashi; Shimada, Kazumasa; Kushida, Teruo; Shiratori, Yoshitake

福島第一原子力発電所事故後の汚染地域において代表的個人の外部被ばく線量を決定論的に評価するために、居住地の放射線量率及び生活行動に関する調査を実施するとともに、統計分析を行ってこれらの被ばく要因の統計分布を特定した。居住地の放射線量率は対数正規形で分布していた。また、自宅滞在者、屋内作業者及び屋外作業者の生活行動を調査したところ、屋外での滞在時間の分布形は職業によって異なっており、自宅滞在者及び屋内作業者の屋外滞在時間は対数正規分布、屋外作業者の屋外滞在時間は正規分布形となっていた。これらの被ばく要因と個人線量との関係を分析するために、個人線量の実測値を目的変数とする重回帰分析を実施したところ、汚染の地域差や生活行動の個人差によって生ずるこれら被ばく要因の変動によって個人線量にも統計的に有意な違いが生じていることが明らかになった。被ばく要因の統計情報をもとに、決定論的な線量評価モデルを作成して代表的個人の線量を評価した。評価結果を個人線量の実測値と比較したところ、評価値は実測値の95パーセンタイルよりも高い値となっており評価の保守性を確認することができた。

In order to assess the doses to representative person using deterministic approach, we measured radiation dose rates and surveyed on behavioral patterns in the areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident. Statistical analyzes were also performed to identify the characteristics of individual doses from external exposures, as well as radiation dose rates and behavioral patterns. Radiation dose rates measured in living areas distribute with lognormal form. Behavioral patterns of the populations were different corresponding to their occupation. Time spent outdoors of indoor workers were distributed in lognormal form and those of outdoor workers had the normal distribution. Multi-regression analyses were made to explore a significant relationship between individual doses and relevant contributors. These results indicated that the significant differences were given in individual doses due to the spatial differences of radiation dose rates as well as the interindividual differences of behavioral patterns. Based on the results of analyses of relevant contributors to the external exposures, deterministic dose assessment model was developed. The validity of this model was confirmed because the assessed values were higher than those measured.

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