Uncertainty in predictions of the ambient dose equivalent rates for 30 years following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

福島第一原子力発電所事故30年後の空間線量率予測の不確かさ

木名瀬 栄   ; 高橋 知之*; 佐藤 仁士; 山本 英明; 斎藤 公明  

Kinase, Sakae; Takahashi, Tomoyuki*; Sato, Satoshi; Yamamoto, Hideaki; Saito, Kimiaki

At the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, long-term prediction models have been developed to assess how ambient dose equivalent rates might change in the future and to analyze radiological situations within the 80 km radius of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. In the present study, uncertain predictions of future ambient dose equivalent rates arising from variability in model parameters were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that ambient dose equivalent rates for the next 5-30 years after the accident would be predicted within a factor of approximately 2. The long-term prediction models would be useful for a better understanding of the radiological situation since they provide information on the time variation of the ambient dose equivalent rates in inhabited areas.