Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kadowaki, Masanao; Tsuzuki, Katsunori
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 22 Pages, 2023/00
It is essential to establish a method for reconstructing the source term and spatiotemporal distribution of radionuclides released into the atmosphere due to a nuclear accident for emergency countermeasures. We examined the dependency of a source term estimation method based on Bayesian inference using atmospheric dispersion simulation and environmental monitoring data on the availability of various monitoring data. Additionally, we examined the applicability of this method to a real-time estimation conducted immediately after an accident. A sensitivity analysis of the estimated source term during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident for combinations of various monitoring data indicated that using monitoring data with a high temporal and spatial resolution and the concurrent use of air concentration and surface deposition data is effective for accurate estimation. A real-time source term estimation experiment assuming the situation of monitoring data acquisition during the FDNPS accident revealed that this method could provide the necessary source term for grasping the overview of surface contamination in the early phase and evaluating the approximate accident scale. If the immediate online acquisition of monitoring data and regular operation of an atmospheric dispersion simulation are established, this method can provide the source term in near-real time.
Yoshida, Toshiya; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(1), p.55 - 66, 2022/01
Atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition models (ATDMs) can support decision-making during nuclear emergencies; however, uncertainties in the ATDM results need to be carefully evaluated. To investigate the uncertainties derived from meteorological forecast inputs, we conducted three-day forecast simulations every day for one year with hypothetical releases of radionuclides (one-hour releases every 6 h) from a nuclear facility. The forecast outputs were compared with the analysis outputs during the same period. The difference between the outputs is treated as the uncertainty in the forecasts and is represented as an angle based on the discrepancy in the plume directions between the analysis and forecast outputs. Using meteorological inputs made by Japan Meteorological Agency, the discrepancy angle (Ang) increased by approximately 10 per day on an annual average basis. Meanwhile, the Ang values were occasionally 4-5 times higher than the annual average during short time periods. Since the Ang time series show seasonal and diurnal changes, the statistical characteristics likely depend on the geographical and meteorological conditions, as well as the types of meteorological inputs. Additionally, a main factor in the uncertainty is the wind-direction difference between the analysis and forecast outputs on scales of more than or less than 100 km.
Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Koarashi, Jun; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Takeuchi, Erina; Nishimura, Shusaku; Muto, Kotomi*; Matsunaga, Takeshi*
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 238-239, p.106725_1 - 106725_8, 2021/11
To understand the spatial variation in soil Cs inventory in complex mountainous topography, a whole-area investigation of Cs deposition in a broad-leaved forest catchment of a mountain stream was conducted using grid sampling. Across the catchment, organic and surface mineral soil layers were collected at 42 locations in 2013 and 6 locations in 2015. Cs deposition on the forest floor exhibited high spatial heterogeneity and altitude-dependent distribution over the catchment. The Cs retention ratio in the organic layer ranged from 6% to 82% in 2013. The Cs retention ratios had positive correlations with the material inventory in the organic layer and the elevation. The Cs retention ratios in the organic layer were less than 20% in 2015, even at the locations where the retention ratio was higher than 55% in 2013. Although there was spatial variation in the migration speed, Cs migration from the organic layer to mineral soil was almost completed within 4 y of the deposition.
Kadowaki, Masanao; Furuno, Akiko; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; El-Asaad, H.
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 237, p.106704_1 - 106704_18, 2021/10
The source term of Cs for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident was estimated from the results of local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations and measurements. To confirm the source term's validity for reproducing the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of Cs, this study conducted hemispheric-scale atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations. In the dispersion simulations, the atmospheric-dispersion database system Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI)-DB and oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM were used. Compared with the air concentrations of Cs measured by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, overall, the WSPEEDI-DB simulation reproduced the measurements with some overestimation. Furthermore, the deposition amounts of Cs was investigated using concentrations of Cs in seawater. The simulated seawater concentrations of Cs were underestimated regionally in the North Pacific. The overestimation and underestimation could be improved without contradiction between the air and seawater concentrations of Cs using more realistic precipitation in atmospheric dispersion simulations. This shows that the source term validated in this study could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of Cs because of the FDNPS accident in both local and large-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations.
Nemoto, Miho*; Ebine, Noriya; Okamoto, Akiko; Hosaka, Yasuhisa*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki; Hayakawa, Tsuyoshi; Togawa, Orihiko
JAEA-Technology 2021-013, 41 Pages, 2021/08
When North Korea has carried out nuclear tests, Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) predicts atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by using the WSPEEDI-II upon requests from Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) and submits the predicted results to NRA in cooperation with Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (NSEC). This is a part of the activity of NEAT supporting the Japanese Government in emergency responses. The WSPEEDI-II automatic calculation system specialized for responses to nuclear tests by North Korea was developed by NSEC and was used for responses to three nuclear tests from February 2013 to September 2017. This report describes the transfer and installation of the calculation system to NEAT, and the subsequent maintenance and operation. Future issues for responses to nuclear tests are also described in this report.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(6), p.745 - 754, 2020/06
We have estimated source term and analyzed processes of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident by the Worldwide version of System for Environmental Emergency Dose Information. On the basis of this experience, we developed an dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs in a nuclear emergency and provide useful information for emergency-response planning. By this method, if a release point is known, it is possible to immediately obtain the prediction results by applying provided source term to the database of dispersion-calculation results prepared in advance. With this function, it is easy to compare results by applying various source term with monitoring data, and to find out the optimum source term, which was applied for the source term estimation of the FDNPS accident. By performing this calculation with past meteorological-analysis data, it is possible to immediately get dispersion-calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions. This database can be used for pre-accident planning, such as optimization of a monitoring plan and understanding of events to be supposed in considering emergency countermeasures.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Furuno, Akiko; Kadowaki, Masanao; Kakefuda, Toyokazu*
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 213, p.106104_1 - 106104_13, 2020/03
In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan, the spatial and temporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment is necessary to be reconstructed by computer simulations with the atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition model (ATDM) and source term of radioactive materials discharged into the atmosphere is essential. In this study, we carried out refinement of the source term and improvement of ATDM simulation by using an optimization method based on Bayesian inference with various measurements (air concentration, surface deposition, and fallout). We also constructed the spatiotemporal distribution of some major radionuclides in the air and on the surface (optimized dispersion database) by using the optimized release rates and ATDM simulations which is used for the comprehensive dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the accident.
Ishizaki, Shuhei; Hayakawa, Tsuyoshi; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki; Togawa, Orihiko
JAEA-Technology 2018-007, 43 Pages, 2018/10
When North Korea has carried out a nuclear test, by a request from Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) predicts atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by WSPEEDI-II system in cooperation with Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (NSEC), and submits the predicted results to NRA as the activity to assist responses by the Japanese Government. This report explains frameworks of the Japanese Government and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) to cope with nuclear tests by North Korea, and describes a series of activities by NEAT regarding predictions of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides in response to the 5th and 6th nuclear tests carried out by North Korea in September 2016 and September 2017. Future plans and issues to be solved for responses to nuclear tests are also described in this report, together with an outline of a computer program system used in the predictions.
Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*
JAEA-Data/Code 2017-013, 31 Pages, 2018/01
We developed an atmospheric dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs for dispersion prediction in nuclear emergency and prepare database of information useful for planning of emergency response. In this method, it is possible to immediately get the prediction results for provided source term by creating a database of dispersion calculation results without specifying radionuclides, release rate and period except release point. By performing this calculation steadily along with meteorological data update, it is possible to immediately get calculation results for any source term and period from hindcast to short-term forecast. This function can be used for pre-accident planning such as optimization of monitoring plan and understanding events to be supposed for emergency response. Spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials reproduced by source term estimated inversely from monitoring based on this method is useful as a supplement to monitoring.
Muto, Kotomi; Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Koarashi, Jun; Takeuchi, Erina; Nishimura, Shusaku; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi*
Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, 314(1), p.403 - 411, 2017/10
Fluvial export of particulate and dissolved Cs was investigated to reveal its sources and transfer mechanisms in a broadleaved forest catchment using a continuous collection system. The finest size fraction ( 75m), consisting of decomposed litter and surface mineral soil, was the dominant fraction in the particulate Cs load, although the contribution of coarser size fractions increased during high water discharge in 2014. The dissolved Cs originated from the decomposition of Cs-contaminated litter. Temporal changes in Cs distribution in the litter-mineral soil system indicated that the dissolved Cs load will be moderated in several years, while particulate Cs load has the potential to continue for a long time.
Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Katata, Genki; Ota, Masakazu; Furuno, Akiko; Akari, Shusaku
EPJ Web of Conferences, 153, p.08012_1 - 08012_7, 2017/09
In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident in Japan, the spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment are reconstructed by computer simulations. In this study, by refining the source term of radioactive materials and modifying the atmospheric dispersion model (ATDM), the atmospheric dispersion simulation of radioactive materials is improved. Then, a database of spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials in the air and on the ground surface is developed from the output of the simulation. This database is used in other studies for the dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the FDNPS accident. The ATDM simulation was improved to use a new meteorological model and sophisticated deposition scheme. Although the improved ATDM simulations reproduced well the Cs deposition pattern in the eastern Japan scale, the reproducibility of deposition pattern was decreased in the vicinity of FDNPS. This result indicated the necessity of further refinement of the source term by optimization to the improved ATDM simulations.
Matsunaga, Takeshi; Nakanishi, Takahiro; Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Takeuchi, Erina; Muto, Kotomi; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Nishimura, Shusaku; Koarashi, Jun; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi; Sato, Tsutomu*; et al.
Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, 310(2), p.679 - 693, 2016/11
Particulate Cs in stream water was collected continuously for two years in order to assess the long-term trend of the Cs discharge from the forest environment. Sampling was conducted from December 2011 to December 2013 in a mountainous stream, which received the Cs from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. A seasonal increase in fluvial transport load of particulate Cs associated with suspended solids (SS) was observed in August and September when rainfall was abundant. The particulate Cs concentration decreased at a faster rate than the rate due to radioactive decay. This decrease might be resulted from redistribution of the easily eroded and polluted soil surface due to heavy rain events such as typhoons. These findings indicate that the particulate Cs load was subject to the inter-annual variations in rainfalls, and decreased gradually over a long period of time due to a decrease in Cs concentration in SS.
Muto, Kotomi; Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Takeuchi, Erina; Nishimura, Shusaku; Koarashi, Jun; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Nakanishi, Takahiro; Matsunaga, Takeshi
KEK Proceedings 2015-4, p.252 - 257, 2015/11
As a result of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, a large amount of radiocesium released into the atmosphere was deposited in forests. This study estimated the monthly trend in the fluvial discharges of radiocesium from a forest. The study site was a forested catchment in Kitaibaraki City. Radiocesium in river water was collected with a filtration system as both particulate and dissolved components. Filters and columns including dissolved Cs absorbent were replaced every month. The collected suspended solids were sieved into 2000-3000 m, 500-2000 m, 75-500 m, and 75 m fractions. The Cs concentrations in the samples were measured using -ray spectrometry with Ge semiconductor detectors. The Cs discharge increased with the river water discharge. The particulate Cs discharge was dominant in both 2013 and 2014. The Cs discharge rate of the dissolved component increased in winter, when the river water discharge decreased.
Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Koarashi, Jun; Takeuchi, Erina; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Nishimura, Shusaku; Matsunaga, Takeshi
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 147, p.1 - 7, 2015/09
We collected a large amount of radiocesium air dose rate data by mountain-walking with a small -ray survey system, KURAMA-II, to create an air dose rate map of a mountainous deciduous forest that received radiocesium from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Measurements were conducted in a small stream catchment 0.6 km in size in August and September 2013, and the relationship between air dose rates and the mountainous topography was examined. Air dose rates increased with elevation, suggesting that more radiocesium was deposited on ridges, and that it had remained there for 2.5 years with no significant migration due to soil erosion or water drainage. Slope aspect also strongly affected air dose rates. By the continuous measurement using KURAMA-II, we describe the variation in air dose rates in a mountainous area and suggest that it is important to consider topography when selecting sampling points to estimating dose rates or contaminant deposition.
Matsunaga, Takeshi; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Yanase, Nobuyuki; Kritsananuwat, R.*; Hanzawa, Yukiko; Naganawa, Hirochika
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 52(4), p.514 - 529, 2015/04
In a temperate, forested river catchment, distribution of dissolved rare earth elements (REE) during rainfall events was studied as analogues elements for transuranic nuclides. Concentrations of dissolved REE showed almost concurrent increases and decreases with the river water discharge during rainfall events. The concentration variations were tightly coupled with those of optical properties related to humic substances of dissolved organic matter (DOM). An ultrafiltration analysis revealed that colloidal REE present in 10 k - 30 kDa size fraction was the chief component for dissolved REE increase in high water flow condition. Shale-normalized concentration patterns of REE suggest an involvement of humic substances of DOM. A high correlation between size fractioned REE concentrations and specific ultraviolet absorbance suggests that aromaticity would be an essential property of DOM in regard to its complexation with dissolved REE in the studied river water.
Matsunaga, Takeshi; Nakanishi, Takahiro; Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Takeuchi, Erina; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Nishimura, Shusaku; Koarashi, Jun; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi; Sato, Tsutomu*; Nagao, Seiya*
Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, 303(2), p.1291 - 1295, 2015/02
An innovative, yet simple method for the passive collection of radioactive materials in river water has been developed and validated. The method employes large filter vessels, containing multiple cartridge filters. River water is led to the system naturally using a drop of the riverbed by hose from upstream. This method makes long-term, unmanned monitoring possible. In addition to regular radioactivity analyses, this method provides an opportunity for the characterization of suspended materials based on its ample collection quantities (more than several tens of grams). This method may also be applicable to sediment-bound chemicals.
Matsunaga, Takeshi; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Yanase, Nobuyuki; Kritsananuwat, R.*; Ueno, Takashi; Hanzawa, Yukiko; Naganawa, Hirochika
Limnology, 15(1), p.13 - 25, 2014/01
We studied a discharge of heavy metals/metalloids in rainfall events to a rural stream in Kuji River basin of central Japan. In terms of elemental enrichment with respect to the crustal composition, we found similarity between atmospheric deposits and suspended particulate matter (SPM) at a rural stream. Both exhibited distinctive enrichment in several metals (Ni, Cu, Pb, Sb, and Cd). Elemental analysis of SPM in the stream in rainfall events at short intervals revealed that the metal enrichment factors in SPM were progressively decreased with an increase of flow rate. Judging from features of SPM, this phenomenon was probably caused by alternative change of SPM matrices from upper soil constituents to more lithologic material with increasing stream flow rate. In quantification of respective contributions of metals of different origins to fluvial discharge, change of SPM matrices during a rainfall event and involvement of dissolved fraction need to be taken into consideration.
Nakanishi, Chika; Sato, Takeshi; Sato, Sohei; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kakefuda, Toyokazu; Katata, Genki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Ikeda, Takeshi; Okuno, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Kazuya; et al.
JAEA-Technology 2013-030, 105 Pages, 2013/10
North Korea carried out the third nuclear test in February 2013. Due to the request of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) and Nuclear Science and Engineering Directorate (NSED) of JAEA predicted the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclide by WSPEEDI-II for the purpose of contributing to the environmental monitoring plan. From February 12 to 22, they provided daily reports on the prediction to the MEXT and the Ministry of Defense. MEXT has published these reports on the website. Since April 2012, NEAT and NSED had prepared to predict by the framework for the prediction around the clock during 10months until February 2013. This report described this experience and pointed issues out on this system.
Nagai, Haruyasu; Kobayashi, Takuya; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki
Progress in Nuclear Science and Technology (Internet), 2, p.556 - 567, 2011/10
A general-purpose model coupling program (JAEA-Coupler) has been developed to construct local to regional scale coupled models for environmental studies. In this coupled model, calculations of component models are carried out by different processors of parallel computers and the coupler controls these processes and handles data exchanges among component models using MPI. The coupler handles the data distribution to target models with interfacing spatial, temporal, and physical discrepancies among component models. By using JAEA-Coupler, an integrated coupled model system to simulate regional water cycle and material transport has been constructed. Test calculations were carried out to simulate water movement after heavy rainfall and dissolved material transport after a hypothetical release to the atmosphere. These results show the validity of the coupled model system in appropriate data exchanges among component models and reasonable reproduction of the target phenomena.
Matsunaga, Takeshi; Yanase, Nobuyuki; Kritsananuwat, R.*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Hanzawa, Yukiko; Naganawa, Hirochika
Proceedings of 12th International Conference on Integrated Diffuse Pollution Management (IWA DIPCON 2008) (CD-ROM), p.370 - 371, 2008/08
The input of toxic trace elements to river water in a rainfall event was studied in a forested watershed in Japan. The riverine input of particulate trace elements varied with their different enrichment in suspended particles at low and high flow stages. This input was suspected to cause an increase in the levels of their dissolved components earlier in the rainfall and at a high flow stage. We also found that dissolved organic carbon from a soillayer can carry rare earth elements to a stream at a latter stage of high flow rate.