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Shiotani, Hiroki; *; Kato, Atsushi;
JNC TN9400 2003-042, 72 Pages, 2003/03
JNC-TN9400-2003-042.pdf:2.87MB
Mass fLow analysis on the Fast Reactor (FR)cycle concepts was conducted to grasp the differences in the quantities of the FR cycles and to utilize the results and siderations of the analysis for the interim summary of the Phase II of the feasibility studies on cmmercialized fast reactor cycle system in the FY 2003. 1t is supposed that the terms of the mass flow analysis was from 2000 to 2200, the spent fuels from FR will be reprocessed promptly. The result shows that the replacement from Light Water Reactor (LWR)to FR will be almost fully completed until 2130's if a FR cycle is deployed in 2030 in case the nuclear generation capacity is 70GWe. The result also predicts that the deployment will be completed without a great ploblem even if the capacity is changed into 90 GWe. lt is foreseedable that the heavy jnfluence will be occurred in the fuel cycle quantities if the FRs for hydrogen production are deployed on a large scale (40GWe-50GWe equivalent) in addition to the FRs for power generation. The measures (employment of the FRs promoting the replacement, enlargement of the reprocessing of sprent fuels from LWRs, etc.)should be taken.
Shiotani, Hiroki; *; ;
JNC TN9400 2002-048, 87 Pages, 2002/07
JNC-TN9400-2002-048.pdf:4.47MB
This report is intended to explain the outline of the research and development (R&D) in the FY 2001 on cost-benefit analysis of FR (Fast Reactor) cycle system concepts. The work was conducted as a part of the JNC's "Feasibility Study on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle Systems (the F/S)". In the FY 2001, the work conducted in the JNC was summed up as the followings: (1)Conceptual study on cost-benefit analysis for FR cycle R&D (2)Refinement on the evaluation procedure and improvement over operation efficiency (3)Cost-benefit analysis of the reference FR cycle and sensitivity analysis with the revised system (4)Cost-benefit analyses of R&Ds for various FR cycle candidate concepts including FR cycle concepts studied in the F/S phase 1 The work made it possible to evaluate the cost effectiveness of various FR cycle systems efficiently. The cost-benefit analysis, which is often used for the policy evaluation, is considered to be applicable to FR cycle system concepts in the F/S.
Shiotani, Hiroki; ; ; Sagayama, Yutaka; *; *
JNC TN9400 2002-044, 42 Pages, 2002/07
JNC-TN9400-2002-044.pdf:1.69MB
Some studies about the relation between burn-up and economics in the FR cycle have been performed until now. The results of these studies indicate that the core fuel assemblies with average burn-up of 150
200GWd/t is proper for target value from the economic viewpoint. The phase-I of JNC's "Feasibility Studies on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle System (the F/S)" started from 1999. In the F/S study, reactor construction cost, reprocessing cost and fabrication cost of FR cycle were revised iargely and importance of improvement of the average burn-up for whole fuel assemblies including blanket fuels was confirmed. Accordingly, based on the newest FR plant and core designs in the F/S study, the influence of the fuel burn-up on the generation cost was examined on the assumption that core diameter, CDF(Cumulative Damage Fraction) condition and so on are constant. The results may be summarized as follows. (1)As for the constant breeding ratio case (about l.1), the generation cost becomes the minimum at around 150GWd/t as average burn-up for core fuel assemblies (or at around 90GWd/t of average burn-up for whole fuel assemblies). It is caused by both effects of decrease of fuel mass flow, and increase of fuel cycle unit cost and decrease of load factor, as fuel burn-up rises. (2)When the breeding ratio increases (addition of axial blanket fuels), the generation cost rises because average burn-up for the whole fuel assemblies decreases.
Ohtaki, Akira; ; ;
JNC TN9400 2002-035, 43 Pages, 2002/06
JNC-TN9400-2002-035.pdf:1.79MB
This report provides the results of our investigation about the new harmonized concept of hard energy path and soft energy path in the future hydrogen society, as a part of FBR cycle introduction scenario study in the JNC's "Feasibility Study on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle System". First, we considered that an environmental preservation policy and hydrogen utilization might be the current in the 21st century, then, investigated the supply-and-demand status of resources and energy in hydrogen society. Furthermore, the harmonized image of a nuclear fuel cycle and soft energy paths (distributed power supplies, fuel cell vehicle, chemical plant, etc.) was investigated. Nuclear fuel cycle is considered to contribute to the supply of the platinum group metals whose the increase in demand will be expected in hydrogen society in addition to production of the CO
free energies (electric power, hydrogen, etc.) by nuclear energy. And the range of the supply-and-demand balance of the platinum group metals recovered from the reprocessed waste was calculated. Fufthermore, its radioactivity characteristics and the problem on the utilization of the recovered elements was evaluated. In order to propose the supply system of the resource and energy preserving the environment. We are going to study the infrastructure for the supply of recovered elements and CO free energy.
*; Ohtaki, Akira;
JNC TN9400 2002-034, 41 Pages, 2002/06
JNC-TN9400-2002-034.pdf:1.76MB
In the "Feasibility Study on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle System (F/S)", scenario evaluations, cost-benefit evaluations and system characteristic evaluations to show significance of the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) cycle system introduction concretely are performed in parallel with a design study for FBR plants, reprocessing systems and fabrication systems. In these evaluations, informations such as economic prospects, prospects for supply and demand of resources and a progress of engineering development are used in addition to design information. This report explains a FBR Cycle Database in order to carry out management and search of various design information and the relating information. The prototype system of the database was completed in the 2000 fiscal year, and the problem of the user number restriction of the prototype system has been improved by Web-ization in the 2001 fiscal year, About 7,000 data are stored in this data base (as of the end of March, 2002). The expansion of user etc., and the continuation of input work of various evaluation information will be carried out, in the phase 2 of F/S.
Ohtaki, Akira; ;
JNC TN9400 2002-033, 97 Pages, 2002/03
JNC-TN9400-2002-033.pdf:4.18MB
This report concerns it self with the results of an investigation about the possibility of future nuclear utilization in the part of FBR cycle introduction scenario study in the JNC's "Feasibility Study on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle System (theF/S)". We have investigated about the problems that confront energy industries and electric power companies, the capacities of distributed generation, the coexistence method of a distlibuted generation and large-scale power supply generation, and the development status of a small-scale nuclear reactor from a wide viewpoint. Especially the spread of distributed generation causes the decrease of the electlicity demand which the electric power companies supplies. Since introduction scale of a distributed power supply is also expeceted to increase in the future, it will give some influences to a future nuclear plan and a power supply plan. The hydrogen utilization with out greenhouse gas mission is expected to spread with distributed generation, such as a fuel cell and a micro-gas turbine. Therefore,we proposed the new business model that the hydrogen produced by using uclear surplus electricity is consumed distributed generation, such as a fuel cell and a micro-gas turbine. We plan to evaluate quantitatively the best power supply composition based on this load stability business model, FBR introduction capacities, the load factor, and the amount of CO reduction.
Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; *
JNC TJ9400 2002-005, 94 Pages, 2002/03
JNC-TJ9400-2002-005.pdf:2.75MB
As an evolutional method for valuation of a corporation, an investment project, a research and development, or the evaluation technique of an enterprise strategy, a real option analysis attracts attention instead of conventional Discount Cash Flow method. The reason is that it can divert the technique for the option valuation in financial engineering to the decision-making process performed according to change in investment environment. Related references, the analysis tools, the application examples, etc. were investigated about the decision-making technique using real option analysis, and this investigation considered the application method to decision-making of the research and development at Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute. Consequently, since the feature is in real option analysis being the evaluation technique on condition of that business conditions and business itself also change, the real option analysis fits for evaluation of a research and development that business conditions were opaque and it turns out that the businesses are highly flexible. Moreover, it turns out that it fits also for evaluation of a capital concentration type investment issue like power plants.
Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; *; *
JNC TJ9400 2002-003, 98 Pages, 2002/02
JNC-TJ9400-2002-003.pdf:3.63MB
In this study, the FBR achievement analysis system developed last year was improved so that we could perform analysis on other power generation systems and assessment with a view of pubinc acceptance. In order to establish the assessment structure for other systems, competitive energy systems with large power outputs (50-100 plants of 1GW power generation system) and small power outputs (50-200MW) were fixed, and investigated their performances and special features. The usage of systems with small power outputs were intended as; (1)use in isolated islands or remote places, (2)use as district power supply, (3)use as industry owned power plants. From the results, energy balance, energy security, easiness and simplicity, and quality of electric outputs were discussed as new indices, and samples of their assessment structures were shown. Concering public acceptance, relating factors were extracted from existing research on it. Especially, about sence of safety and trustworthiness, research on social psychological analysis on them were investigated, so that we showed the assessment structure of risk perception. The assessment structures shown in this study would be able to be applied to assessments of both large power generation systems and small ones, as far as the usages were restricted to the three cases mentioned above. Considerations to extract other indices would be necessary in order to expand the intended usage.
Maki, Takashi*; Horiuchi, Nobutake*
JNC TJ9400 2002-006, 79 Pages, 2002/01
JNC-TJ9400-2002-006.pdf:2.58MB
The function of the nuclear fuel cycle amount analysis code, developed in 2001 were extended. This code is a program that calculates the change in characteristics with time of mass balance (for example, the amount of natural uranium demand, plutonium mass balance, environmental load reduction, etc.) in a nuclear fuel cycle, to examine the state of future reactor types or recycling facilities. In 2002, as for this code, calculation functions of reprocessing facilities on plutonium-thermal spent fuels, recovery uranium recycling, and multiple FR concepts were added, and the I/O function was improved according to it. Moreover, benchmark calculation to the extended amount analysis code was performed using the other tool, and it was confirmed that mass balance was calculated appropriately. Furthermore, the mass balance of a few typical FR cycle concepts was calculated in this analysis code, and the feature of each concept was clarified.
; Ohtaki, Akira; Kofuji, Hirohide; ;
JNC TN9400 2001-061, 335 Pages, 2001/03
JNC-TN9400-2001-061.pdf:17.62MB
This report is intended to explain the outline of the characteristic evaluation work on various FR cycle system concepts, following the design work, in the 1st phase of the JNC's "Feasibility Study on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle System (the F/S)" (from 1999 to March 2001). The purpose of this characteristic evaluation is to reveal the performance of candidate FR cycle systems. For this synthetic estimation, six viewpoints, such as Economics, Effective utilization of uranium resource, Reduction of environmental impact, Safety, Proliferation resistance, and Technological feasibility, are selected. In addition, aiming at the practical use in phase 2, we examined an application to FBR research and development of cost benefit analysis method used for the policy evaluation. Furthermore, long-term nuclear material mass flow was analyzed and the scenario of "FBR application for the hydrogen production" is proposed, considering how FBR would be utilized for the 21st century. And, a database including the various documents & data used for evaluation was constructed.
; Kofuji, Hirohide; Ohtaki, Akira; ; ; ;
JNC TN9400 2001-036, 151 Pages, 2000/12
JNC-TN9400-2001-036.pdf:5.43MB
This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21
century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system.
; Ohtaki, Akira; ; *; *
JNC TN9400 2001-028, 51 Pages, 2000/12
JNC-TN9400-2001-028.pdf:1.96MB
This scenario study on the global nuclear energy was performed from the viewpoints of the maximum utilization of natural uranium resources, in order to clarify the role of nuclear energy in the future global primary energy supply. Social conditions, such as site issue and financial issue, aren't taken into consideration. Main three scenarios set up in this study are as follows, (1)LWR once-through (2)LWR with plutonium recycling (3)LWR+FBR From preliminary estimation, the following results were obtained. In the LWR once-through scenario and the LWR with plutonium recycling scenario, the nuclear energy can't support energy supply in the reference case B estimated by IIASA/WEC in the Global Energy Perspectives 1998. The nuclear energy decreases gradually after the middle of 21 century and exhausts uranium resource to phase out till the beginning of 22
century. On the other hand, if the FBR cycle is introduced in the future for Plutonium utilization, the nuclear energy is expected to be one of the most important sustainable energy options beyond the next century.
Kofuji, Hirohide; ; *; *;
JNC TN9400 2000-055, 49 Pages, 2000/03
JNC-TN9400-2000-055.pdf:2.07MB
Accompanying with the progress of the "Feasibility study on FBR cycle system; FS" , various kinds of technical information, facility design parameters, and related data will be obtained and they should be stored in data bases and be used as fundamental data for the FS. So the several data bases are going to be set up at each section and controlled by the management system through a local area network. Among above data bases, a prototype of FBR cycle data base that will record data for FBR scenario study and synthetic assessment is to be completed in. Phase l by fiscal year 2000, so the data base system concept has been examined in the current fiscal year, 1999. As the results of the system concept examination, two types of prototypes have been selected, one is to be set up as the data table containing digital data that are extracted from technical papers, another is as image data of papers with index information. Referring to examples of data bases in other companies, it was kept in mind to use a package software for general purpose and to utilize data existing now.