Evaluation of uncertainties derived from meteorological forecast inputs in plume directions predicted by atmospheric dispersion simulations

大気拡散モデルで予測された拡散方向に対する気象予報由来の不確実性評価

吉田 敏哉   ; 永井 晴康  ; 寺田 宏明   ; 都築 克紀  ; 澤 宏樹*

Yoshida, Toshiya; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*

本研究では、気象予報の不確実性が及ぼす大気拡散予報計算への影響を定量的に評価した。そのために、大気拡散モデルを用いて原子力施設からの放出を想定した過去1年間(2018年)の拡散計算を行った。気象入力条件に解析値を用いた計算と予報値を用いた計算を行い、解析値計算に対する予報値計算の誤差を不確実性とした。不確実性の定量的な大きさは、両者の地表濃度分布の代表的な拡散方向のずれを角度で表すことで算出した。気象庁が配信している気象入力値を使用した場合、その角度は平均的には10/日で増加した。一方、前後の時刻の不確実性とは関係なく、突発的に4、5倍に増加することも分かった。また、角度の時系列は日変化や季節変化を有していたため、拡散方向の不確実性は気象入力値だけでなく気象条件や地理的条件の影響を受けることが示唆された。さらに、不確実性の主な要因は、解析値と予報値との100kmスケール以上もしくは100kmスケール以下の風向のずれであることを示した。

Atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition models (ATDMs) can support decision-making during nuclear emergencies; however, uncertainties in the ATDM results need to be carefully evaluated. To investigate the uncertainties derived from meteorological forecast inputs, we conducted three-day forecast simulations every day for one year with hypothetical releases of radionuclides (one-hour releases every 6 h) from a nuclear facility. The forecast outputs were compared with the analysis outputs during the same period. The difference between the outputs is treated as the uncertainty in the forecasts and is represented as an angle based on the discrepancy in the plume directions between the analysis and forecast outputs. Using meteorological inputs made by Japan Meteorological Agency, the discrepancy angle (Ang) increased by approximately 10 per day on an annual average basis. Meanwhile, the Ang values were occasionally 4-5 times higher than the annual average during short time periods. Since the Ang time series show seasonal and diurnal changes, the statistical characteristics likely depend on the geographical and meteorological conditions, as well as the types of meteorological inputs. Additionally, a main factor in the uncertainty is the wind-direction difference between the analysis and forecast outputs on scales of more than or less than 100 km.