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Osawa, Hideaki; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Makino, Hitoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu*; McKinley, I. G.*; Okubo, Hiroo*
Karyoku Genshiryoku Hatsuden, 59(6), p.512 - 519, 2008/06
The information explosion resulting from modern technology is identified as a critical problem for deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). A paradigm shift is needed in the basic concept for information management. This recognition had led to the development of a next generation Knowledge Management System (the JAEA KMS) that makes maximum use of recent developments in Information Technology (IT) and the methodology of Knowledge Engineering (KE) as applied in other technical fields. This paper provides a brief outline of the design concept of the JAEA KMS and then overviews recent progress towards development of an operational system.
Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo*; Takase, Hiroyasu*
JAEA-Data/Code 2007-005, 67 Pages, 2007/02
JAEA-Data-Code-2007-005.pdf:6.66MB
In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEP's and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives.
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ8400 2004-009, 84 Pages, 2004/02
JNC-TJ8400-2004-009.pdf:0.42MB
In H12 Project to Establish Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan an approach that is based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the peer review. However it was also suggested that there are issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure.Therefore, in the current financial year, in the first place a scenario development methodology was constructed taking into account the requirements identified last year. Furthermore a practical work-frame was developed to support the activities related to the scenario development. This work-frame was applied to an example scenario to check its applicability and identify issues for further research. Secondly, scenario analysis method with regard to perturbation scenario has been studied. First of all, a survey of perturbation scenario discussed in different countries has been carried out and its assessment has been examined. Especially, in Japan, technical information has been classified in order to assess three scenarios, which are seismic activity, faulting and igneous activity. Then, on the basis of assumed occurrence pattern and influence pattern for each perturbation scenario, variant type that should be considered in this analysis has been identified, and the concept of treatment, modeling data and requirements have been clarified. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified.
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ8400 2004-008, 264 Pages, 2004/02
JNC-TJ8400-2004-008.pdf:2.25MB
In H12 Project to Establish Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan an approach that is based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the peer review. However it was also suggested that there are issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure.Therefore, in the current financial year, in the first place a scenario development methodology was constructed taking into account the requirements identified last year. Furthermore a practical work-frame was developed to support the activities related to the scenario development. This work-frame was applied to an example scenario to check its applicability and identify issues for further research. Secondly, scenario analysis method with regard to perturbation scenario has been studied. First of all, a survey of perturbation scenario discussed in different countries has been carried out and its assessment has been examined. Especially, in Japan, technical information has been classified in order to assess three scenarios, which are seismic activity, faulting and igneous activity. Then, on the basis of assumed occurrence pattern and influence pattern for each perturbation scenario, variant type that should be considered in this analysis has been identified, and the concept of treatment, modeling data and requirements have been clarified. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified.
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ8400 2003-052, 67 Pages, 2003/02
JNC-TJ8400-2003-052.pdf:1.71MB
As the first step of this study, description level and content of the FEPs with regard to the FEP information data on the Natural Barrier System developed by JNC have been examined from various angles on the basis of the latest research information. Each content of the FEP data has been classified and modified by means of integrating descriptive items, checking detail levels and correlations with other FEPs, collating with the H12 report, and adding technical information after H12 report. Secondly, scenario analysis method has been studied. As an illustrated example, a procedure for deriving a calculation case by using Connectivity Matrix and PPM (Parameters, Processes, Models) database was applied for buffer in base scenario and then volcanism scenario. Also, another approach based on Correlation Matrix has been comparatively discussed to list up future subjects. Lastly, in relation to the geological disposal system, assessment techniques have been examined for more practical scenario analysis on variant scenario. Possible conceptual models have been proposed for uplift and erosion scenario. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified.
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ8400 2003-051, 298 Pages, 2003/02
JNC-TJ8400-2003-051.pdf:3.31MB
As the first step of this study, description level and content of the FEPs with regard to the FEP information data on the Natural Barrier System developed by JNC have been examined from various angles on the basis of the latest research information. Each content of the FEP data has been classified and modified by means of integrating descriptive items, checking detail levels and correlations with other FEPs, collating with the H12 report, and adding technical information after H12 report. Secondly, scenario analysis method has been studied. As an illustrated example, a procedure for deriving a calculation case by using Connectivity Matrix and PPM (Parameters, Processes, Models) database was applied for buffer in base scenario and then volcanism scenario. Also, another approach based on Correlation Matrix has been comparatively discussed to list up future subjects.Lastly, in relation to the geological disposal system, assessment techniques have been examined for more practical scenario analysis on variant scenario. Possible conceptual models have been proposed for uplift and erosion scenario. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified.
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ8400 2002-015, 47 Pages, 2002/02
JNC-TJ8400-2002-015.pdf:0.48MB
First of all, with regard to the FEP information data on the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) developed by JNC, description level and content of the FEPs have been examined from various angles on the basis of the latest research information. Each content of the FEP data has been classified and modified by means of integrating descriptive items, checking detail levels and correlations with other FEPs, collating with the H12 report, and adding technical information after H12 report. Secondly, scenario-modeling process has been studied. The study has been conducted by evaluating representation of the repository system, definition of FEP properties, and process interactions based on the concept of the interaction matrix (RES format) which represents influences between physicochemical characteristics of the repository, followed by an experimental development of the actual RES interaction matrix based on the H12 report as the examination to improve the transparency, traceability and comprehensibility of the scenario analysis process. Lastly, in relation to the geological disposal system, assessment techniques have been examined for more practical scenario analysis on particularly strong perturbations. Possible conceptual models have been proposed for each of these scenarios; seismic, faulting, and dike intrusion. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified.
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ8400 2002-014, 240 Pages, 2002/02
JNC-TJ8400-2002-014.pdf:4.23MB
First of all, with regard to the FEP information data on the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) developed by JNC, description level and content of the FEPs have been examined from various angles on the basis of the latest research information. Each content of the FEP data has been classified and modified by means of integrating descriptive items, checking detail levels and correlations with other FEPs, collating with the H12 report, and adding technical information after H12 report. Secondly, scenario-modeling process has been studied. The study has been conducted by evaluating representation of the repository system, definition of FEP properties, and process interactions based on the concept of the interaction matrix (RES format) which represents influences between physicochemical characteristics of the repository, followed by an experimental development of the actual RES interaction matrix based on the H12 report as the examination to improve the transparency, traceability and comprehensibility of the scenario analysis process. Lastly, in relation to the geological disposal system, assessment techniques have been examined for more practical scenario analysis on particularly strong perturbations. Possible conceptual models have been proposed for each of these scenarios; seismic, faulting, and dike intrusion. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified.
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ8400 2001-007, 194 Pages, 2001/03
JNC-TJ8400-2001-007.pdf:7.46MB
With regard to future research on geological disposal indicated in the government's evaluation, the problems concerning R&D on performance assessment (PA) have been classified. Furthermore, a study has been conducted in the form of a questionnaire for the experts. Based on these opinions, those issues to be focused on in future research have been picked out and the future direction for R&D on these problems has also been discussed. Secondly to make clear what the future direction should be for advanced assessment model and techniques, (1) a database system (QUASAR) designed to assure the quality of the scenario safety analysis, (2) a documentation system for FEP-based Process Influence Diagram (PID) information using the SCENIC application as an example of the volcanism variant, (3) "Variant-Oriented (VO) approach" using a compartment model for various faulting variants, (4) the possibility of applying the "complex system" idea to PA, have been studied. On the basis of the wide range of investigations in the light of the most recent research information, the future directions for R&D on PA have been proposed, with an indication of the future issues related to PA model and techniques and the future direction of sophistication of the PA methods.
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ8400 2001-006, 88 Pages, 2001/03
JNC-TJ8400-2001-006.pdf:4.09MB
no abstracts in English
Okubo, Hiroo*
JNC TJ1400 99-020, 124 Pages, 1999/02
This year, first, on seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion, climate change and human activity (intrusion) scenarios, while effects of those scenarios were primarily evaluated in reference cases last year, variant cases with another kind of patterns of models and paramenters compared to reference cases, have been studied and set, and their effects have been analyzed and evaluated. Secondly, referring to the results of the above discussions, a preliminary study was made to evaluate the complex effect caused by combining natural events such as volcanism, seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion and climate change, where discussions have been made on which combined scenario was more important and how to set the analysis framework.
